Braves vs Mets Game Breakdown

Get ready to slide into the excitement as the Atlanta Braves charge into Citi Field, bringing a heated showdown to the New York Mets tonight at 07:10PM EST! With the Braves swinging at 54W-46L and the Mets hot on their heels at 53W-48L, this clash is more than just a game; it’s a battle for supremacy in the National League standings. The stakes are sky-high with the Braves 8.5 games back and the Mets trailing close at 10.0 games. Vegas is buzzing too, setting the over/under at a nail-biting 7.5, favoring the Braves slightly in the odds. Coming off a triumphant thrashing of the Yankees and a tough tussle with the Reds, both teams are fired up and ready to go, under the clear skies and gentle breezes at a comfy 76.7°. Tonight, it’s not just about baseball—it’s about pride. So, as the Mets try to build their empire and the Braves aim to conquer, let’s see whose strategy will capture the crown in this epic showdown!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: July 25, 2024 07:10PM EST

Location: Citi Field, New York

Weather: Sunny with winds from the NW at 7.8 mph. Temperature is at 76.7° with 68% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	ATL ML	NYM ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-122	+102	7.5	-0.5/0.5
Recent	-116	-104	7.5	-0.5/0.5
Difference	+6	-206	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

164W-121L

53.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

8W-2L

HOME

166W-122L

46.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/08/24	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+7.5
04/08/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+7.5
04/09/24	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+3.5
04/09/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+3.5
04/11/24	New York Mets NYM	16	Over	+12.5
04/11/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+12.5
05/10/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-1.5
05/10/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-1.5
05/11/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-2.5
05/11/24	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-2.5
05/12/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-0.5
05/12/24	New York Mets NYM	4	Under	-0.5
04/28/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-3.5
04/28/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-3.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	21	Over	+16.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Over	+16.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Over	+0.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+0.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+9.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+9.5
06/06/23	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+2.5
06/06/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+2.5
06/07/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+4.5
06/07/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+4.5
06/08/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+15.5
06/08/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	13	Over	+15.5
08/11/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-0.5
08/11/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-0.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Under	-1.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-1.5
08/13/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+5.5
08/13/23	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+5.5
08/21/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+6.5
08/21/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+6.5
08/22/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
08/22/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-2.5
08/23/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-0.5
08/23/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-0.5

Braves Vs Over/Under

Mets Vs Over/Under

Chris Sale

ERA 2.743 | IP 105.0 | 12.0W-3.0L | KO 136.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
07-09-24	@ARI	6-2W	5.3	5	2	9	Over
07-03-24	vsSF	1-3W	6.0	3	1	9	Under
06-27-24	@CWS	0-1L	7.0	4	1	11	Under
06-21-24	@NYY	8-1W	5.0	1	1	8	Over
06-14-24	vsTB	3-7W	7.0	5	2	7	Over
06-07-24	@WAS	1-2L	7.0	5	2	10	Under
06-01-24	vsOAK	11-9L	4.0	9	8	4	Over
05-26-24	@PIT	8-1W	7.0	4	1	8	Over
05-20-24	vsSD	0-3W	7.0	5	0	9	Under
05-14-24	vsCHC	0-7W	7.0	2	0	9	Under

Luis Severino

ERA 3.813 | IP 115.7 | 7.0W-3.0L | KO 88.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
07-20-24	@MIA	1-0W	6.0	2	0	7	Under
07-10-24	vsWAS	2-6W	6.3	4	2	4	Over
07-05-24	@PIT	2-14L	6.0	9	7	3	Over
06-30-24	vsHOU	10-5L	7.0	8	4	3	Over
06-23-24	@CHC	5-2W	6.0	3	0	10	Under
06-18-24	@TEX	7-6W	6.3	8	6	1	Over
06-13-24	vsMIA	2-3W	6.0	7	1	2	Under
06-05-24	@WAS	9-1W	8.0	7	1	4	Over
05-31-24	vsARI	9-10W	5.3	6	5	4	Over
05-25-24	vsSF	7-2L	7.0	2	1	6	Over

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/26	@ CIN	4-9L	10	0	Over
07/24	@ CIN	1-4L	3	0	Under
07/23	@ STL	2-6L	9	1	Over
07/22	@ STL	3-2W	6	1	Under
07/22	@ STL	5-9L	9	4	Over
07/15	vs SD	0-4L	5	0	Under
07/14	vs SD	6-1W	9	3	Under
07/13	vs ARI	0-1L	5	0	Under
07/12	vs ARI	5-7L	8	1	Over
07/11	vs ARI	6-2W	11	1	Over
07/10	vs ARI	5-4W	8	2	Over
07/09	@ PHI	6-0W	9	4	Under
07/08	@ PHI	5-1W	6	2	Under
07/07	@ PHI	6-8L	8	3	Over
07/06	@ SF	2-4L	8	0	Under

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/26	vs NYY	12-3W	14	5	Over
07/25	vs NYY	3-2W	8	1	Under
07/24	vs MIA	6-4W	11	3	Over
07/23	vs MIA	2-4L	8	0	Under
07/22	vs MIA	1-0W	6	0	Under
07/21	vs MIA	4-6L	8	2	Over
07/15	@ COL	7-3W	6	1	Over
07/14	@ COL	7-6W	10	5	Over
07/13	@ WAS	7-0W	9	0	Under
07/12	@ WAS	6-2W	12	1	Over
07/11	@ WAS	7-5W	11	2	Over
07/10	vs PIT	2-8L	8	1	Over
07/09	vs PIT	3-2W	9	0	Under
07/08	vs PIT	5-2W	11	0	Under
07/07	vs PIT	2-14L	5	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jarred Kelenic	8.6	11.1	0.257	0.431	0.333	0.764	0.314	0.038
#2 Austin Riley	7.7	10.2	0.255	0.455	0.364	0.819	0.333	0.040
#3 Marcell Ozuna	7.8	10.4	0.307	0.590	0.432	1.022	0.406	0.076
#4 Matt Olson	8.7	11.5	0.224	0.393	0.342	0.735	0.301	0.036
#5 Adam Duvall	6.1	8.1	0.183	0.313	0.270	0.583	0.245	0.032
#6 Eddie Rosario	6.7	8.8	0.187	0.339	0.241	0.580	0.243	0.035
#7 Sean Murphy	5.9	7.7	0.212	0.364	0.322	0.686	0.283	0.042
#8 Nacho Alvarez Jr.	6.0	6.0	0.111	0.111	0.111	0.222	0.096	0.000
#9 Orlando Arcia	5.1	6.5	0.216	0.334	0.271	0.605	0.254	0.021

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Francisco Lindor	8.0	10.6	0.256	0.478	0.374	0.852	0.346	0.052
#2 Brandon Nimmo	6.2	8.4	0.239	0.433	0.417	0.850	0.339	0.044
#3 J.D. Martinez	7.4	9.8	0.259	0.440	0.387	0.827	0.334	0.038
#4 Pete Alonso	6.8	9.0	0.245	0.453	0.367	0.820	0.333	0.049
#5 Mark Vientos	6.3	8.3	0.296	0.556	0.383	0.939	0.380	0.066
#6 Francisco Alvarez	5.6	7.4	0.281	0.451	0.399	0.850	0.343	0.026
#7 Jose Iglesias	5.6	7.2	0.366	0.570	0.441	1.011	0.408	0.032
#8 Tyrone Taylor	5.6	7.3	0.227	0.399	0.283	0.682	0.284	0.030
#9 Harrison Bader	5.2	6.7	0.264	0.404	0.325	0.729	0.302	0.029

Braves Notable Injuries

Max Fried OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/13/24. Impact: 8.8
Austin Riley OUT (3B): Avg: 0.255 SLG:0.455 Last game: 07/24/24. Impact: 2.6
Ozzie Albies OUT (2B): Avg: 0.254 SLG:0.402 Last game: 07/23/24. Impact: 2.4

Mets Notable Injuries

Christian Scott OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/23/24. Impact: 4.0
Reed Garrett OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/11/24. Impact: 0.8
Drew Smith OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/25/24. Impact: 1.0