Orioles vs Red Sox Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Apr 11th 2024

Alright, sports junkies, it’s time to grab your Cracker Jacks and settle in for a classic American League showdown as the feisty Baltimore Orioles swoop into Fenway Park, ready to peck the Boston Red Sox into submission. With the Orioles sitting pretty at 7W-4L, just 2.0 games back, and the Red Sox nipping at their heels with a 7W-5L record, 2.5 games back, this is one game you won’t want to miss. First pitch is flying in at 07:10PM EST, so make sure you’ve got your bets placed and your fantasy lineups locked. The bookies are calling it close with an over/under of 8.5, the Orioles perched at -121, and the Red Sox at 101. Now, the Sox may still be smarting from their 5-7 loss to the Orioles just yesterday, but don’t count them out yet. They’ll be looking to flip the script and give the Orioles a taste of their own medicine. As for the weather, we’ve got some mist rolling in from the east at 5.6 mph, a cool 48.9°, and a humidity level of 86% – perfect conditions for some hardball. So, whether you’re a bird of a feather with the Orioles or you’ve got a soft spot for those Sox, get ready for a game that promises to be anything but for the birds.

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 11, 2024 07:10PM EST

Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: Mist with winds from the E at 5.6 mph. Temperature is at 48.9° with 86% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	BAL ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-121	+101	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-124	+104	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	-3	+3	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

117W-129L

55.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

127W-113L

44.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/09/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	7	Under	-0.5
04/09/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Under	-0.5
04/10/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	7	Over	+3.5
04/10/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	5	Over	+3.5
03/30/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	10	Over	+10.5
03/30/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+10.5
10/01/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	6	Under	-1.5
10/01/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	1	Under	-1.5
04/01/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	8	Over	+8.5
04/01/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+8.5
04/02/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	5	Over	+5.5
04/02/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+5.5
04/24/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Over	+0.5
04/24/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	5	Over	+0.5
04/25/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	8	Over	+5.5
04/25/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	6	Over	+5.5
04/26/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Under	-0.5
04/26/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	6	Under	-0.5
09/08/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	11	Over	+4.5
09/08/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Over	+4.5
09/09/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	13	Over	+16.5
09/09/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	12	Over	+16.5
09/10/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	3	Over	+1.5
09/10/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	7	Over	+1.5
09/28/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	0	Under	-6.5
09/28/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	2	Under	-6.5
09/29/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	3	Under	-5.5
09/29/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	0	Under	-5.5
09/30/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Under	-1.5
09/30/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	5	Under	-1.5

Orioles Vs Over/Under

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Cole Irvin

ERA 4.422 | IP 77.3 | 1.0W-4.0L | KO 68.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-05-24	@PIT	5-2W	6.3	6	2	7	Under
03-30-24	vsLAA	4-13W	6.0	4	1	9	Over
09-27-23	vsWAS	1-5W	5.7	6	1	5	Under
09-21-23	@CLE	2-5L	5.0	5	2	7	Under
09-16-23	vsTB	0-8W	8.0	5	0	7	Under
09-10-23	@BOS	3-7L	4.3	7	4	6	Over
09-04-23	@LAA	6-3W	6.0	7	2	7	Over
08-28-23	vsCWS	0-9W	6.0	1	0	6	Over
08-22-23	vsTOR	6-3L	6.0	8	3	5	Over
08-14-23	@SD	4-1W	7.0	3	1	6	Under
04-10-24	@BOS	7-5W	5.0	7	5	4	Over
04-02-24	vsKC	4-1L	5.0	7	4	3	Under
10-01-23	vsBOS	6-1L	2.0	0	0	1	Under
09-12-23	vsSTL	5-2L	2.0	2	0	1	Under
09-10-23	@BOS	3-7L	2.7	1	3	3	Over
09-06-23	@LAA	10-3W	1.0	0	0	1	Over
09-01-23	@ARI	2-4L	5.7	8	4	4	Under
08-25-23	vsCOL	4-5W	6.0	6	4	5	Over
08-19-23	@OAK	7-2W	5.0	4	1	3	Over
08-12-23	@SEA	1-0W	5.0	2	0	6	Under

Kutter Crawford

ERA 4.036 | IP 129.3 | 6.0W-8.0L | KO 135.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-06-24	@LAA	1-2L	4.3	4	0	4	Under
03-31-24	@SEA	5-1W	5.0	3	1	8	Under
09-29-23	@BAL	3-0W	2.0	1	0	3	Under
09-22-23	vsCWS	2-3W	2.0	3	2	2	Under
09-18-23	@TEX	4-2W	1.0	0	0	0	Under
09-17-23	@TOR	2-3L	0.3	2	1	1	Under
09-14-23	vsNYY	0-5W	2.0	0	0	1	Under
09-10-23	vsBAL	3-7W	2.0	0	0	3	Over
08-30-23	vsHOU	7-4L	2.0	4	1	2	Over
08-26-23	vsLAD	5-8W	1.7	4	1	3	Over
04-10-24	vsBAL	7-5L	5.0	2	0	6	Over
04-05-24	@LAA	8-6W	4.7	2	1	5	Over
03-30-24	@SEA	3-4L	6.0	3	1	7	Under
09-30-23	@BAL	2-5L	6.0	1	0	7	Under
09-24-23	vsCWS	3-2L	5.3	4	3	7	Under
09-18-23	@TEX	4-2W	6.0	4	2	7	Under
09-12-23	vsNYY	4-1L	4.7	3	1	7	Under
09-05-23	@TB	6-8L	3.7	3	5	5	Over
08-30-23	vsHOU	7-4L	2.7	7	6	1	Over
08-25-23	vsLAD	7-4L	5.0	4	2	7	Over

Orioles Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/12	vs BOS	7-5W	9	1	Over
04/11	vs BOS	7-1W	13	0	Under
04/09	vs PIT	2-3L	6	0	Under
04/08	vs PIT	4-5L	4	0	Over
04/07	vs PIT	5-2W	12	3	Under
04/05	@ KC	4-3W	6	0	Under
04/04	@ KC	1-4L	3	0	Under
04/03	@ KC	6-4W	9	2	Over
04/02	@ LAA	1-4L	3	0	Under
04/01	@ LAA	13-4W	14	2	Over
03/30	@ LAA	11-3W	10	2	Over
10/03	@ BOS	1-6L	2	0	Under
10/02	@ BOS	5-2W	7	0	Under
10/01	@ BOS	0-3L	3	0	Under
09/30	@ BOS	2-0W	4	1	Under

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/12	@ BAL	5-7L	8	1	Over
04/11	@ BAL	1-7L	2	1	Under
04/09	vs LAA	12-2W	12	4	Over
04/08	vs LAA	1-2L	3	0	Under
04/07	vs LAA	8-6W	9	5	Over
04/05	vs OAK	1-0W	10	0	Under
04/04	vs OAK	5-4W	12	0	Over
04/03	vs OAK	9-0W	9	0	Over
04/02	vs SEA	5-1W	10	2	Under
04/01	vs SEA	3-4L	7	0	Under
03/31	vs SEA	0-1L	4	0	Under
03/30	vs SEA	6-4W	11	2	Over
10/03	vs BAL	6-1W	5	0	Under
10/02	vs BAL	2-5L	14	0	Under
10/01	vs BAL	3-0W	4	1	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Baltimore Orioles	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Gunnar Henderson	9.8	12.9	0.254	0.49	35.9%	84.9%	5.0%
#2 Adley Rutschman	8.5	11.2	0.276	0.43	43.5%	86.5%	3.3%
#3 Anthony Santander	8.2	10.9	0.254	0.46	35.4%	81.4%	4.4%
#4 Ryan O’Hearn	6.9	9.0	0.288	0.48	34.0%	82.0%	4.1%
#5 Ryan Mountcastle	7.7	10.2	0.268	0.45	36.3%	81.3%	4.3%
#6 Cedric Mullins	8.0	10.6	0.231	0.414	34.1%	75.4%	3.8%
#7 Colton Cowser	5.4	7.8	0.103	0.138	36.2%	50.0%	0.0%
#8 Jordan Westburg	5.9	7.6	0.261	0.399	34.5%	74.4%	1.5%

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	7.7	9.9	0.294	0.482	37.6%	85.8%	2.4%
#2 Tyler O’Neill	9.3	12.1	0.231	0.403	34.9%	75.2%	3.8%
#3 Rafael Devers	8.6	11.4	0.271	0.502	39.8%	89.9%	5.7%
#4 Triston Casas	8.2	10.9	0.263	0.49	42.9%	91.8%	5.6%
#5 Romy Gonzalez	6.8	8.8	0.194	0.376	21.5%	59.1%	3.2%
#6 Pablo Reyes	6.8	8.8	0.287	0.377	37.1%	74.9%	1.2%
#7 Enmanuel Valdez	5.7	7.3	0.266	0.453	33.1%	78.4%	4.3%
#7 Masataka Yoshida	7.1	9.2	0.287	0.439	36.4%	80.3%	2.6%
#8 Reese McGuire	6.0	7.5	0.267	0.358	33.2%	69.0%	0.5%
#8 Connor Wong	6.1	8.0	0.237	0.391	31.3%	70.4%	2.4%
#9 David Hamilton	5.7	7.4	0.121	0.182	30.3%	48.5%	0.0%
#9 Ceddanne Rafaela	6.1	7.7	0.241	0.386	30.1%	68.7%	2.4%