Orioles vs Royals Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Apr 21st 2024

Get ready to ruffle some feathers and crown some kings as the Baltimore Orioles swoop into Kauffman Stadium, ready to clash with the Kansas City Royals in a showdown that’s heating up the American League! Both teams are flying high with the Orioles just a beak’s length away from the top spot, while the Royals aren’t far behind, looking to joust their way to victory. With the first pitch set for 02:10 PM EST under a crisp, sunny sky, the stakes are as high as the over/under at 9.0. Fresh off a thrilling encounter where the Orioles bested the Royals, today’s rematch promises to be another feather in the cap of this budding rivalry. So, will the Orioles continue their victorious flight, or will the Royals rule their roost? Let’s find out if it’s time for the birds to rule the sky or for royalty to reign supreme!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 21, 2024 02:10PM EST

Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City

Weather: Sunny with winds from the NW at 9.4 mph. Temperature is at 46.9° with 49% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	BAL ML	KC ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+108	-130	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	-109	-111	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-217	+19	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

119W-130L

52.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

114W-134L

47.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/01/24	Kansas City Royals KC	4	Over	+1.0
04/01/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	6	Over	+1.0
04/02/24	Kansas City Royals KC	4	Under	-4.0
04/02/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	1	Under	-4.0
04/03/24	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Under	-2.0
04/03/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	4	Under	-2.0
04/19/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	4	Over	+4.0
04/19/24	Kansas City Royals KC	9	Over	+4.0
04/20/24	Baltimore Orioles BAL	9	Over	+7.0
04/20/24	Kansas City Royals KC	7	Over	+7.0
05/02/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	11	Over	+9.0
05/02/23	Kansas City Royals KC	7	Over	+9.0
05/03/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	0	Under	-3.0
05/03/23	Kansas City Royals KC	6	Under	-3.0
05/04/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	13	Over	+14.0
05/04/23	Kansas City Royals KC	10	Over	+14.0
06/09/23	Kansas City Royals KC	2	Under	-4.0
06/09/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	3	Under	-4.0
06/10/23	Kansas City Royals KC	1	Under	-2.0
06/10/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	6	Under	-2.0
06/11/23	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Over	+5.0
06/11/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	11	Over	+5.0

Orioles Vs Over/Under

Royals Vs Over/Under

Cole Irvin

ERA 6.75 | IP 14.7 | 0.0W-1.0L | KO 11.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-20-24	@KC	9-7W	5.7	4	3	4	Over
04-14-24	vsMIL	4-6W	5.0	6	3	5	Over
04-09-24	@BOS	7-1W	7.0	2	1	6	Under
04-03-24	vsKC	3-4W	5.7	9	2	3	Under
03-28-24	vsLAA	3-11W	6.0	1	1	11	Over
09-28-23	@STL	0-3W	4.0	5	0	4	Under
09-22-23	@MIA	16-1L	5.0	2	0	6	Over
09-16-23	@WAS	5-9W	5.7	5	4	9	Over
09-10-23	@NYY	3-4W	8.0	0	0	7	Under
09-04-23	@PIT	2-4W	6.0	7	4	7	Under
04-15-24	vsMIN	4-7W	4.7	6	2	4	Over
04-10-24	@BOS	7-5W	5.0	7	5	4	Over
04-02-24	vsKC	4-1L	5.0	7	4	3	Under
10-01-23	vsBOS	6-1L	2.0	0	0	1	Under
09-12-23	vsSTL	5-2L	2.0	2	0	1	Under
09-10-23	@BOS	3-7L	2.7	1	3	3	Over
09-06-23	@LAA	10-3W	1.0	0	0	1	Over
09-01-23	@ARI	2-4L	5.7	8	4	4	Under
08-25-23	vsCOL	4-5W	6.0	6	4	5	Over
08-19-23	@OAK	7-2W	5.0	4	1	3	Over

Will Smith

ERA 14.143 | IP 7.0 | 0.0W-2.0L | KO 7.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-20-24	vsBAL	9-7L	1.7	9	7	4	Over
04-14-24	@NYM	1-2L	6.0	5	0	8	Under
04-09-24	vsHOU	3-4W	5.0	10	3	5	Under
04-03-24	@BAL	3-4L	6.3	1	0	7	Under
03-28-24	vsMIN	4-1L	6.0	5	2	9	Under
09-28-23	@DET	3-7L	6.3	5	4	8	Over
09-22-23	@HOU	7-5W	6.0	3	2	5	Over
09-16-23	vsHOU	8-10W	6.0	6	5	7	Over
09-10-23	@TOR	2-5L	5.7	1	2	6	Under
09-04-23	vsCWS	1-12W	6.0	1	0	7	Over
04-15-24	@CWS	2-0W	7.0	4	0	4	Under
04-10-24	vsHOU	2-11W	6.0	7	2	2	Over
04-04-24	vsCWS	1-10W	6.7	8	1	3	Over
03-30-24	vsMIN	5-1L	6.0	2	0	4	Under
09-26-23	@SF	4-0L	8.7	3	0	7	Under
09-20-23	@COL	2-3W	6.0	7	2	7	Under
09-15-23	@OAK	8-3L	6.0	5	3	7	Over
09-09-23	@HOU	5-7W	4.3	7	6	2	Over
09-03-23	@SF	0-4W	6.0	3	0	4	Under
08-29-23	@STL	5-6W	6.0	6	3	6	Over
04-19-24	vsBAL	4-9W	1.0	4	4	1	Over
04-17-24	@CWS	4-2W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
04-12-24	@NYM	1-6L	1.0	4	1	1	Under
04-07-24	vsCWS	3-5W	1.0	1	0	1	Under
04-05-24	vsCWS	1-2W	0.3	1	0	1	Under
04-03-24	@BAL	3-4L	0.7	2	2	1	Under
04-02-24	@BAL	4-1W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
03-30-24	vsMIN	5-1L	1.0	2	4	0	Under
09-29-23	@SEA	0-8W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
09-26-23	@LAA	3-9W	1.0	0	0	1	Over

Orioles Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/22	vs KC	9-6W	15	0	Over
04/21	vs KC	4-9L	8	1	Over
04/19	@ MIN	4-2W	8	3	Under
04/18	@ MIN	11-3W	15	3	Over
04/17	@ MIN	7-4W	12	3	Over
04/16	@ MIL	6-4W	11	3	Over
04/15	@ MIL	5-11L	12	3	Over
04/14	@ MIL	1-11L	6	1	Over
04/13	vs BOS	9-4W	9	4	Over
04/12	vs BOS	7-5W	9	1	Over
04/11	vs BOS	7-1W	13	0	Under
04/09	vs PIT	2-3L	6	0	Under
04/08	vs PIT	4-5L	4	0	Over
04/07	vs PIT	5-2W	12	3	Under
04/05	@ KC	4-3W	6	0	Under

Royals Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/22	@ BAL	6-9L	8	1	Over
04/21	@ BAL	9-4W	9	2	Over
04/19	vs CWS	1-2L	5	0	Under
04/19	vs CWS	4-2W	7	2	Under
04/17	vs CWS	2-0W	5	1	Under
04/16	vs NYM	1-2L	3	1	Under
04/15	vs NYM	11-7W	13	1	Over
04/14	vs NYM	1-6L	3	1	Under
04/13	@ HOU	13-3W	16	2	Over
04/12	@ HOU	11-2W	11	1	Over
04/11	@ HOU	3-3L	7	0	Under
04/09	@ CWS	5-3W	6	2	Under
04/08	@ CWS	3-0W	10	1	Under
04/07	@ CWS	2-1W	7	0	Under
04/06	@ CWS	10-1W	10	2	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Baltimore Orioles	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Gunnar Henderson	9.0	11.8	0.284	0.568	39.5%	96.3%	7.4%
#2 Adley Rutschman	8.5	11.1	0.304	0.405	39.2%	79.7%	2.5%
#3 Ryan Mountcastle	7.6	10.0	0.314	0.486	44.3%	92.9%	2.9%
#3 Ryan O’Hearn	7.9	10.3	0.288	0.596	38.5%	98.1%	7.7%
#4 Anthony Santander	7.0	9.5	0.237	0.474	31.6%	78.9%	5.3%
#5 Jordan Westburg	7.1	9.4	0.319	0.565	40.6%	97.1%	5.8%
#6 Austin Hays	6.8	9.2	0.111	0.111	22.2%	33.3%	0.0%
#6 Cedric Mullins	7.3	9.9	0.254	0.524	33.3%	85.7%	7.9%
#7 Colton Cowser	5.9	7.8	0.375	0.75	43.8%	118.8%	8.3%
#8 James McCann	4.8	6.2	0.267	0.333	26.7%	60.0%	0.0%
#9 Jackson Holliday	5.4	8.0	0.037	0.037	7.4%	11.1%	0.0%
#9 Jorge Mateo	6.2	7.5	0.304	0.478	34.8%	82.6%	0.0%

Kansas City Royals	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Maikel Garcia	6.5	8.6	0.181	0.349	24.1%	59.0%	3.6%
#2 Bobby Witt Jr.	8.2	10.5	0.302	0.581	38.4%	96.5%	4.7%
#3 Vinnie Pasquantino	6.3	8.5	0.269	0.522	46.3%	98.5%	6.0%
#4 Salvador Perez	6.4	8.5	0.342	0.605	42.1%	102.6%	7.9%
#4 Will Smith	-10.3	12.2	nan	nan	nan%	nan%	nan%
#5 MJ Melendez	5.9	7.9	0.227	0.485	34.8%	83.3%	6.1%
#6 Nelson Velazquez	7.2	9.4	0.281	0.438	39.1%	82.8%	3.1%
#7 Adam Frazier	5.9	8.0	0.175	0.175	45.0%	62.5%	0.0%
#7 Michael Massey	4.9	6.7	0.286	0.429	28.6%	71.4%	0.0%
#8 Freddy Fermin	6.5	8.2	0.182	0.212	21.2%	42.4%	0.0%
#8 Hunter Renfroe	5.6	7.7	0.175	0.333	26.3%	59.6%	3.5%
#9 Garrett Hampson	5.6	7.1	0.2	0.24	24.0%	48.0%	0.0%
#9 Kyle Isbel	4.9	6.0	0.211	0.281	24.6%	52.6%	1.8%