Cubs vs Diamondbacks Game Breakdown & Projections – Mon, Apr 15th 2024

Get ready to slide into the excitement tonight as the Chicago Cubs, boasting a solid 9W-6L record, gear up to claw through the Arizona Diamondbacks at the vibrant Chase Field! The stakes are buzzing with the Cubs just a whisker away from the top, trailing by 1.5 games in the National League, while the Diamondbacks, with an 8W-8L slate, aren’t far behind, lurking 2.0 games back in the standings. As the first pitch is set to soar at 09:40 PM EST, the betting lines are drawing crowds with an over/under of 8.5, hinting at a showdown that’s too close to call. With the Cubs fresh off a nail-biting 3-2 victory against Seattle and the Diamondbacks riding the high from a 5-0 shutout against St. Louis, tonight’s forecast at Chase Field promises clear skies and perfect baseball weather. So, as the Cubs try to outmaneuver the Diamondbacks in their own den, it’s time to see if they can truly ‘bear’ the heat or if the Diamondbacks will strike with venom!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 15, 2024 09:40PM EST

Location: Chase Field, Arizona

Weather: Sunny with winds from the SW at 3.8 mph. Temperature is at 59.0° with 41% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	CHC ML	ARI ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+121	-144	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+123	-147	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+2	-3	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

110W-139L

44.8% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

120W-129L

55.2% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
09/07/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	6	Under	-0.5
09/07/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Under	-0.5
09/08/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	1	Under	-7.5
09/08/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	0	Under	-7.5
09/09/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	3	Under	-3.5
09/09/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Under	-3.5
09/10/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	2	Under	-1.5
09/10/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Under	-1.5
09/15/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Over	+1.5
09/15/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	6	Over	+1.5
09/16/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	6	Over	+4.5
09/16/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	7	Over	+4.5
09/17/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Under	-0.5
09/17/23	Arizona Diamondbacks ARI	6	Under	-0.5

Cubs Vs Over/Under

Diamondbacks Vs Over/Under

Javier Assad

ERA 3.046 | IP 109.3 | 5.0W-3.0L | KO 94.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-14-24	@SEA	3-2W	5.7	4	2	6	Under
04-08-24	@SD	8-9L	5.0	3	2	7	Over
04-02-24	vsCOL	2-12W	6.0	4	0	5	Over
09-30-23	@MIL	10-6W	1.7	2	0	4	Over
09-28-23	@ATL	3-5L	2.0	1	1	3	Under
09-26-23	@ATL	6-7L	1.0	1	2	2	Over
09-23-23	vsCOL	3-6W	4.0	2	0	6	Push
09-19-23	vsPIT	1-14W	5.0	5	1	8	Over
09-12-23	@COL	4-6L	3.3	5	4	4	Over
09-07-23	vsARI	6-2L	5.3	7	3	0	Under

Merrill Kelly

ERA 3.394 | IP 177.7 | 12.0W-8.0L | KO 187.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-14-24	vsSTL	0-5W	6.0	4	0	7	Under
04-08-24	@COL	5-7L	5.0	8	3	10	Over
04-02-24	vsNYY	0-7W	6.0	3	0	6	Under
03-28-24	vsCOL	1-16W	5.0	3	1	3	Over
09-29-23	vsHOU	2-1L	6.3	7	2	7	Under
09-24-23	@NYY	7-1W	6.0	3	0	8	Under
09-19-23	vsSF	4-8W	5.0	6	4	6	Over
09-13-23	@NYM	1-7L	5.0	8	7	4	Under
09-08-23	@CHC	1-0W	9.0	3	0	9	Under
09-03-23	vsBAL	8-5L	5.3	8	5	4	Over
04-09-24	@COL	3-2W	6.0	6	2	4	Under
04-03-24	vsNYY	6-5L	7.0	5	2	4	Over
03-29-24	vsCOL	3-7W	6.7	3	1	8	Over
09-30-23	vsHOU	1-0L	7.0	5	1	5	Under
09-25-23	@NYY	4-6L	5.0	4	2	5	Over
09-20-23	vsSF	1-7W	6.7	3	1	5	Under
09-14-23	@NYM	1-11L	5.0	6	7	7	Over
09-09-23	@CHC	3-2W	5.7	4	1	6	Under
09-04-23	vsCOL	2-4W	7.0	4	1	12	Under
08-29-23	@LAD	1-9L	5.0	12	7	1	Over

Cubs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/16	vs SEA	3-2W	8	1	Under
04/15	vs SEA	4-1W	6	3	Under
04/14	vs SEA	2-4L	4	1	Under
04/12	vs SD	2-10L	3	1	Over
04/11	vs SD	5-1W	9	2	Under
04/10	vs SD	8-9L	8	0	Over
04/09	@ LAD	8-1W	7	1	Push
04/08	@ LAD	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/07	@ LAD	9-7W	9	2	Over
04/05	@ COL	9-8W	10	1	Over
04/04	@ COL	12-2W	14	4	Over
04/03	@ COL	5-0W	9	0	Under
04/02	vs TEX	9-5W	12	1	Over
04/01	vs TEX	2-11L	5	1	Over
03/30	vs TEX	3-4L	6	0	Under

Diamondbacks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/16	@ STL	5-0W	7	0	Under
04/15	@ STL	4-2W	6	1	Under
04/14	@ STL	6-9L	9	1	Over
04/12	vs COL	5-3W	10	1	Under
04/11	vs COL	3-2W	9	2	Under
04/10	vs COL	5-7L	7	0	Over
04/09	vs ATL	2-5L	5	0	Under
04/08	vs ATL	8-9L	12	1	Over
04/07	vs ATL	5-6L	9	1	Over
04/05	@ NYY	5-6L	9	2	Over
04/04	@ NYY	7-0W	12	1	Under
04/03	@ NYY	2-5L	4	0	Under
04/02	@ COL	5-1W	5	1	Under
04/01	@ COL	4-9L	8	2	Over
03/31	@ COL	7-3W	14	3	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Chicago Cubs	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ian Happ	8.5	11.3	0.25	0.43	42.8%	85.8%	3.6%
#2 Seiya Suzuki	7.2	9.4	0.285	0.479	40.4%	88.3%	3.7%
#3 Cody Bellinger	7.8	10.3	0.306	0.526	39.5%	92.1%	5.2%
#4 Christopher Morel	7.1	9.5	0.247	0.51	34.6%	85.7%	6.8%
#5 Dansby Swanson	7.0	9.2	0.244	0.416	37.0%	78.6%	3.9%
#6 Nico Hoerner	5.9	7.6	0.286	0.387	38.7%	77.4%	1.5%
#7 Michael Busch	6.7	9.0	0.167	0.292	27.8%	56.9%	2.8%
#8 Mike Tauchman	5.6	7.5	0.253	0.38	43.4%	81.3%	2.4%
#9 Miguel Amaya	5.5	7.4	0.214	0.359	38.9%	74.8%	3.8%
#9 Yan Gomes	5.0	6.5	0.265	0.407	34.4%	75.1%	2.6%

Arizona Diamondbacks	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ketel Marte	9.1	12.0	0.276	0.485	41.1%	89.6%	4.4%
#2 Corbin Carroll	10.5	13.6	0.288	0.511	41.3%	92.3%	4.4%
#3 Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	8.9	11.6	0.265	0.468	33.6%	80.4%	4.4%
#4 Christian Walker	8.0	10.6	0.257	0.495	37.4%	86.9%	5.7%
#5 Joc Pederson	7.7	10.4	0.232	0.415	41.2%	82.6%	4.2%
#6 Eugenio Suarez	7.0	9.4	0.234	0.393	37.5%	76.8%	3.7%
#7 Gabriel Moreno	6.3	8.1	0.284	0.408	37.8%	78.6%	2.1%
#8 Jake McCarthy	6.7	8.4	0.246	0.331	36.0%	69.1%	0.7%
#9 Blaze Alexander	nan	7.4	nan	nan	nan%	nan%	nan%