Marlins vs Braves Game Breakdown & Projections – Mon, Apr 22nd 2024

Get ready to dive into the deep end tonight as the struggling Miami Marlins swim upstream to the buzzing hive of Truist Park, ready to face the soaring Atlanta Braves in a clash that’s more than just a game—it’s a battle for National League bragging rights. With the first pitch at 07:20 PM EST, the Marlins, sitting uncomfortably at the bottom of the tank, are looking to make a splash against the conference-leading Braves, who are eager to bounce back from a recent sting of a loss. The odds makers have the line drawn with the Braves as heavy favorites in a game set with an over/under of 9.0, under partly cloudy skies with a chill in the air. While the Marlins have just netted a win against the Cubs, they’re entering the Braves’ territory, where the hosts aren’t too keen on playing hospitable. Tonight, it’s all about whether the Marlins can swim or if the Braves will keep buzzing triumphantly. So, let’s see if the Marlins can make some waves or if the Braves will simply swat them away!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 22, 2024 07:20PM EST

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the N at 6.9 mph. Temperature is at 48.9° with 56% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+185	-225	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+175	-215	9.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-10	+10	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

97W-152L

36.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

152W-95L

63.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/12/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	8	Push	-0.0
04/12/24	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Push	-0.0
04/13/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	1	Under	-3.0
04/13/24	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Under	-3.0
04/14/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+7.0
04/14/24	Miami Marlins MIA	7	Over	+7.0
04/24/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Over	+2.0
04/24/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	11	Over	+2.0
04/25/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+2.0
04/25/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+2.0
04/26/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+1.0
04/26/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+1.0
04/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Push	-0.0
04/27/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Push	-0.0
05/02/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Under	-3.0
05/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-3.0
05/03/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	14	Over	+11.0
05/03/23	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Over	+11.0
05/04/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Push	-0.0
05/04/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Push	-0.0
06/30/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+11.0
06/30/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	16	Over	+11.0
07/01/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-2.0
07/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-2.0
07/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Push	-0.0
07/02/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Push	-0.0
09/15/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+6.0
09/15/23	Miami Marlins MIA	9	Over	+6.0
09/16/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	5	Over	+7.0
09/16/23	Miami Marlins MIA	11	Over	+7.0
09/17/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	2	Over	+9.0
09/17/23	Miami Marlins MIA	16	Over	+9.0

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Braves Vs Over/Under

Ryan Weathers

ERA 2.7 | IP 20.0 | 2.0W-1.0L | KO 22.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-21-24	@CHC	6-3W	5.0	7	3	7	Under
04-15-24	vsSF	4-3L	6.0	5	1	10	Under
09-29-23	@PIT	4-3W	3.7	6	3	3	Under
09-24-23	vsMIL	1-6W	5.0	5	1	5	Under
09-18-23	vsNYM	2-1L	5.3	4	1	4	Under
09-12-23	@MIL	1-3L	4.7	1	2	5	Under
09-06-23	vsLAD	4-11W	4.0	1	0	8	Over
07-31-23	vsPHI	4-2L	3.0	2	2	3	Under
07-25-23	@TB	1-4L	2.0	4	3	0	Under
07-18-23	@STL	2-5L	5.0	2	1	6	Under
04-16-24	vsSF	3-6W	6.0	5	2	10	Under
04-10-24	@NYY	5-2W	5.0	3	0	1	Under
04-04-24	@STL	5-8L	5.0	3	3	6	Over
03-30-24	vsPIT	9-3L	4.0	7	3	5	Over
10-01-23	@PIT	0-3L	6.0	2	0	5	Under
08-21-23	@SD	2-6L	3.3	5	5	4	Under
08-05-23	@TEX	8-9L	3.7	6	6	5	Over
07-15-23	@PHI	4-9W	4.7	6	4	2	Over
06-15-23	@CLE	8-6L	1.7	7	6	2	Over
06-10-23	@COL	3-2L	3.0	3	1	2	Under

Darius Vines

ERA 4.655 | IP 9.7 | 0.0W-1.0L | KO 6.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-21-24	vsTEX	6-4L	5.0	7	4	2	Over
04-15-24	@HOU	6-1W	4.7	4	1	4	Under
09-27-23	vsCHC	5-6W	6.0	4	3	5	Over
09-22-23	@WAS	9-6W	3.3	3	3	1	Over
09-09-23	vsPIT	8-4L	3.0	2	1	1	Over
09-06-23	vsSTL	11-6L	2.0	2	1	2	Over
08-30-23	@COL	7-3W	6.0	4	2	5	Over

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/23	vs CHC	6-3W	11	1	Under
04/22	vs CHC	3-2W	8	1	Under
04/22	vs CHC	3-5L	8	1	Under
04/21	vs CHC	3-8L	6	1	Over
04/19	@ SF	1-3L	6	1	Under
04/18	@ SF	6-3W	8	0	Under
04/17	@ SF	3-4L	10	1	Under
04/16	@ ATL	7-9L	9	2	Over
04/15	@ ATL	5-1W	8	1	Under
04/14	@ ATL	1-8L	6	0	Under
04/12	vs NYY	5-2W	6	1	Under
04/11	vs NYY	2-3L	4	0	Under
04/10	vs NYY	0-7L	2	0	Under
04/09	vs STL	10-3W	13	2	Over
04/08	vs STL	1-3L	8	0	Under

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/23	@ TEX	4-6L	5	1	Over
04/22	@ TEX	5-2W	8	1	Under
04/21	@ TEX	8-3W	6	4	Over
04/19	vs HOU	5-4W	7	2	Under
04/18	vs HOU	6-2W	11	1	Under
04/17	vs HOU	6-1W	11	0	Under
04/16	vs MIA	9-7W	12	2	Over
04/15	vs MIA	1-5L	6	0	Under
04/14	vs MIA	8-1W	14	1	Under
04/13	@ NYM	4-16L	10	0	Over
04/11	@ NYM	6-5W	11	0	Over
04/10	@ NYM	7-8L	12	1	Over
04/09	@ ARI	5-2W	7	3	Under
04/08	@ ARI	9-8W	15	1	Over
04/07	@ ARI	6-5W	12	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	8.8	11.1	0.277	0.351	37.2%	72.3%	0.0%
#2 Bryan De La Cruz	8.7	11.2	0.274	0.474	30.5%	77.9%	5.3%
#3 Jazz Chisholm Jr.	9.3	12.3	0.232	0.354	36.6%	72.0%	2.4%
#4 Josh Bell	7.6	10.2	0.2	0.341	34.1%	68.2%	3.5%
#5 Jesus Sanchez	7.6	9.8	0.216	0.275	27.5%	54.9%	2.0%
#6 Tim Anderson	7.3	8.9	0.25	0.278	30.6%	58.3%	0.0%
#7 Nick Gordon	6.4	8.7	0.213	0.447	27.7%	72.3%	6.4%
#8 Emmanuel Rivera	6.6	8.4	0.216	0.216	37.8%	59.5%	0.0%
#9 Nick Fortes	5.4	7.0	0.125	0.175	20.0%	37.5%	0.0%

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ronald Acuna Jr.	10.9	14.2	0.312	0.403	51.9%	92.2%	1.3%
#2 Michael Harris II	9.1	11.6	0.298	0.464	35.7%	82.1%	3.6%
#3 Austin Riley	9.1	12.2	0.259	0.447	35.3%	80.0%	2.4%
#4 Matt Olson	9.6	13.1	0.231	0.462	39.7%	85.9%	3.8%
#5 Marcell Ozuna	8.8	11.9	0.338	0.713	45.0%	116.3%	11.2%
#6 Travis d’Arnaud	7.2	9.8	0.255	0.588	37.3%	96.1%	7.8%
#6 Adam Duvall	8.1	11.2	0.2	0.333	36.7%	70.0%	3.3%
#7 Orlando Arcia	6.7	8.6	0.329	0.479	39.7%	87.7%	1.4%
#8 Jarred Kelenic	6.6	8.3	0.326	0.391	43.5%	82.6%	0.0%
#9 David Fletcher	7.5	7.5	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#9 Luis Guillorme	4.2	6.4	0.188	0.312	25.0%	56.2%	0.0%