Marlins vs Mets Game Breakdown

Today’s showdown at Citi Field is set to be a sizzler as the underdog Miami Marlins, trailing far behind in the National League standings, dive into the Big Apple to face the New York Mets, who are still in the hunt and looking to claw their way up the conference ladder. With the first pitch at 4:10 PM EST, the stakes are high and the over/under tantalizing at 8.5. Fresh off a head-to-head, where the Mets celebrated a 7-3 victory just yesterday, the atmosphere is charged. The Marlins, hungry for redemption, and the Mets, aiming to solidify their standing, will battle it out under partly cloudy skies with a gentle breeze nudging the mercury to a comfy 77 degrees. As these two teams take the field, it’s not just about who wins or loses—it’s about whether the Marlins can swim upstream or if the Mets can keep riding the subway to success.

Game Breakdown

Game Time: August 17, 2024 04:10PM EST

Location: Citi Field, New York

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the SSE at 2.2 mph. Temperature is at 77.2° with 71% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	NYM ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+157	-192	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+156	-190	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-1	+2	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

113W-184L

39.1% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

172W-127L

60.9% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
05/17/24	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-0.5
05/17/24	Miami Marlins MIA	8	Under	-0.5
05/18/24	New York Mets NYM	9	Over	+10.5
05/18/24	Miami Marlins MIA	10	Over	+10.5
05/19/24	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+1.5
05/19/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+1.5
06/11/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
06/11/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
06/12/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+5.5
06/12/24	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+5.5
06/13/24	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-3.5
06/13/24	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-3.5
07/19/24	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+1.5
07/19/24	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Over	+1.5
07/20/24	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-7.5
07/20/24	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-7.5
07/21/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
07/21/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
07/22/24	New York Mets NYM	6	Over	+1.5
07/22/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+1.5
08/16/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+1.5
08/16/24	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+1.5
03/30/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-0.5
03/30/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Under	-0.5
03/31/23	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-5.5
03/31/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-5.5
04/01/23	New York Mets NYM	6	Under	-0.5
04/01/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-0.5
04/02/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-2.5
04/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-2.5
04/07/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+3.5
04/07/23	New York Mets NYM	9	Over	+3.5
04/08/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-1.5
04/08/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-1.5
04/09/23	Miami Marlins MIA	7	Over	+0.5
04/09/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Over	+0.5
09/18/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-5.5
09/18/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-5.5
09/19/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-1.5
09/19/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-1.5
09/20/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+2.5
09/20/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+2.5
09/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
09/27/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
09/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Over	+4.5
09/27/23	New York Mets NYM	11	Over	+4.5
10/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-7.5
10/02/23	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-7.5

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Mets Vs Over/Under

Max Meyer

ERA 5.202 | IP 36.3 | 3.0W-2.0L | KO 30.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
08-11-24	vsSD	6-7W	6.3	7	4	4	Over
08-06-24	vsCIN	8-2L	4.0	8	6	2	Over
08-01-24	@ATL	2-4L	5.0	7	4	7	Under
07-27-24	@MIL	7-3W	4.0	4	3	3	Over
04-13-24	vsATL	1-5W	6.0	6	1	7	Under
04-07-24	@STL	10-3W	6.0	3	1	3	Over
04-01-24	vsLAA	7-4L	5.0	2	2	4	Over
07-23-22	vsPIT	7-4L	0.7	0	0	1	Over
07-16-22	vsPHI	7-4L	5.3	7	5	5	Over

Luis Severino

ERA 4.377 | IP 133.7 | 7.0W-6.0L | KO 109.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
08-11-24	@SEA	1-12L	5.0	6	4	8	Over
08-06-24	@COL	3-6L	5.0	8	5	5	Over
07-31-24	vsMIN	8-3L	3.0	6	6	2	Over
07-25-24	vsATL	2-3W	5.0	7	2	6	Under
07-20-24	@MIA	1-0W	6.0	2	0	7	Under
07-10-24	vsWAS	2-6W	6.3	4	2	4	Under
07-05-24	@PIT	2-14L	6.0	9	7	3	Over
06-30-24	vsHOU	10-5L	7.0	8	4	3	Over
06-23-24	@CHC	5-2W	6.0	3	0	10	Under
06-18-24	@TEX	7-6W	6.3	8	6	1	Over

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
08/18	vs NYM	3-7L	6	1	Over
08/16	vs PHI	5-9L	11	1	Over
08/15	vs PHI	5-0W	8	2	Under
08/13	@ SD	7-6W	10	2	Over
08/12	@ SD	8-9L	11	2	Over
08/11	@ SD	2-6L	4	2	Under
08/10	@ CIN	4-10L	9	0	Over
08/09	@ CIN	6-4W	8	3	Over
08/08	@ CIN	2-8L	4	0	Over
08/07	@ CIN	3-10L	11	1	Over
08/06	vs ATL	7-0W	9	1	Under
08/05	vs ATL	4-3W	10	1	Under
08/04	vs ATL	3-5L	8	2	Under
08/03	vs ATL	2-4L	6	0	Under
08/02	vs TB	6-2W	8	2	Under

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
08/18	@ MIA	7-3W	10	2	Over
08/17	@ OAK	6-7L	9	2	Over
08/16	@ OAK	9-1W	11	2	Over
08/15	@ OAK	4-9L	9	0	Over
08/13	vs SEA	1-12L	6	1	Over
08/12	vs SEA	0-4L	4	0	Under
08/11	vs SEA	0-6L	7	0	Under
08/10	vs COL	9-1W	13	3	Over
08/09	vs COL	5-3W	11	0	Under
08/08	vs COL	3-6L	9	0	Over
08/07	vs STL	6-0W	9	1	Under
08/06	vs LAA	2-3L	5	0	Under
08/05	vs LAA	4-5L	8	1	Over
08/04	vs LAA	5-1W	13	1	Under
08/02	@ MIN	3-8L	6	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Xavier Edwards	8.1	10.1	0.351	0.432	0.507	0.939	0.370	0.007
#2 Jake Burger	7.6	10.0	0.251	0.478	0.327	0.805	0.330	0.063
#3 Jesus Sanchez	8.2	10.7	0.242	0.420	0.319	0.739	0.305	0.041
#4 Jonah Bride	6.3	8.5	0.264	0.471	0.448	0.920	0.363	0.057
#5 Kyle Stowers	6.3	8.2	0.185	0.272	0.235	0.506	0.216	0.012
#6 Otto Lopez	6.2	7.8	0.230	0.301	0.281	0.582	0.245	0.012
#7 Vidal Brujan	5.1	6.6	0.215	0.322	0.336	0.659	0.273	0.009
#8 Derek Hill	5.2	6.8	0.256	0.444	0.300	0.744	0.308	0.044
#9 Ali Sanchez	4.9	6.2	0.145	0.159	0.217	0.377	0.165	0.000

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Francisco Lindor	9.4	12.3	0.260	0.464	0.369	0.833	0.339	0.046
#2 Mark Vientos	8.2	10.9	0.280	0.563	0.375	0.939	0.380	0.073
#3 Brandon Nimmo	8.6	11.6	0.230	0.408	0.406	0.815	0.326	0.040
#4 J.D. Martinez	8.8	11.7	0.257	0.435	0.393	0.828	0.334	0.036
#5 Pete Alonso	8.1	10.8	0.243	0.464	0.373	0.837	0.338	0.054
#6 Jesse Winker	7.4	9.7	0.266	0.415	0.441	0.856	0.341	0.031
#7 Francisco Alvarez	6.6	8.6	0.259	0.410	0.356	0.766	0.313	0.024
#8 Jeff McNeil	6.5	8.5	0.239	0.394	0.320	0.714	0.296	0.031
#9 Harrison Bader	5.5	7.2	0.260	0.389	0.329	0.718	0.298	0.025

Marlins Notable Injuries

Anthony Bender OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 08/12/24. Impact: 1.5

Mets Notable Injuries

Kodai Senga OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/28/24. Impact: 10.4
Christian Scott OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/23/24. Impact: 4.0
Dedniel Nunez OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/25/24. Impact: 1.6