Brewers vs Pirates Game Breakdown & Projections – Mon, Apr 22nd 2024

Get ready to chug your beers and hoist the Jolly Roger because tonight’s MLB showdown is set to be a barnburner! The sizzling Milwaukee Brewers, boasting a strong 14-6 record, are rolling into PNC Park to clash with the gritty Pittsburgh Pirates, who are balancing the plank at 11-11. The first pitch is slated for 06:40 PM EST, under what promises to be a crisp, sunny sky in Pittsburgh. With the Brewers looking to maintain their top spot and the Pirates aiming to claw back from a recent stumble against Boston, the stakes are as high as the over/under of 8.0. Betting lines are buzzing, fans are buzzing, and with a gentle western breeze in the air, tonight’s game could see balls flying faster than cannonballs in a pirate skirmish. So, will the Brewers brew up a storm, or will the Pirates plunder a victory? Let’s find out as these two teams set sail in a battle that’s brewing up to be nothing short of epic!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 22, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh

Weather: Sunny with winds from the W at 6.9 mph. Temperature is at 43.0° with 60% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIL ML	PIT ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+108	-130	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+122	-145	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+14	-15	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

140W-112L

45.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

2W-8L

HOME

112W-136L

55.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
06/16/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	4	Over	+1.0
06/16/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	5	Over	+1.0
06/17/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	0	Under	-3.0
06/17/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	5	Under	-3.0
06/18/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	2	Under	-1.0
06/18/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	5	Under	-1.0
06/30/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	7	Over	+7.0
06/30/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	8	Over	+7.0
07/01/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	11	Over	+11.0
07/01/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	8	Over	+11.0
07/02/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	6	Over	+1.0
07/02/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	3	Over	+1.0
08/03/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Over	+7.0
08/03/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	14	Over	+7.0
08/04/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	8	Over	+4.0
08/04/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	4	Over	+4.0
08/05/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	2	Under	-3.0
08/05/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	3	Under	-3.0
08/06/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	4	Under	-3.0
08/06/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	1	Under	-3.0
09/04/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	2	Under	-2.0
09/04/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	4	Under	-2.0
09/05/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	7	Over	+2.0
09/05/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	3	Over	+2.0
09/06/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	4	Over	+1.0
09/06/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	5	Over	+1.0

Brewers Vs Over/Under

Pirates Vs Over/Under

Colin Rea

ERA 2.077 | IP 21.7 | 2.0W-0.0L | KO 14.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-15-24	vsSD	7-3L	4.7	9	7	4	Over
04-09-24	@CIN	9-5W	6.3	5	3	7	Over
04-03-24	vsMIN	7-3L	3.7	2	0	3	Over
08-11-21	vsNYM	7-3L	5.0	6	4	2	Over
08-05-21	vsPHI	7-3L	6.3	5	3	7	Over
07-31-21	vsCHC	7-3L	4.3	7	5	5	Over
07-26-21	vsPHI	7-3L	5.0	3	0	4	Over
07-04-21	vsLAD	7-3L	6.7	7	3	11	Over
06-29-21	vsTB	7-3L	6.3	6	2	7	Over
06-25-21	vsMIA	7-3L	0.0	0	0	0	Over
04-21-24	@STL	2-0W	5.0	5	0	3	Under
04-14-24	@BAL	4-6L	5.7	5	3	6	Over
04-07-24	vsSEA	4-12W	6.0	7	2	3	Over
03-31-24	@NYM	4-1W	5.0	5	1	2	Under
09-29-23	vsCHC	3-4W	5.0	2	0	6	Under
09-26-23	vsSTL	4-1L	1.0	0	0	2	Under
09-19-23	@STL	7-3W	4.7	3	1	2	Over
09-13-23	vsMIA	2-0L	4.7	4	1	3	Under
09-08-23	@NYY	8-2W	4.7	3	2	6	Over
09-02-23	vsPHI	5-7W	4.3	3	2	6	Over

Martin Perez

ERA 3.453 | IP 28.7 | 1.0W-1.0L | KO 23.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-16-24	@NYM	1-3L	5.0	1	0	7	Under
04-11-24	@PHI	1-5L	6.3	6	3	8	Under
04-05-24	vsBAL	5-2L	6.0	6	2	7	Under
03-30-24	@MIA	9-3W	5.7	3	3	10	Over
04-21-24	vsBOS	6-1L	4.0	6	4	7	Under
04-15-24	@NYM	3-6L	5.7	6	3	1	Over
04-09-24	vsDET	5-3L	8.0	6	1	7	Over
04-04-24	@WAS	7-4W	6.7	6	2	6	Over
03-29-24	@MIA	7-2W	4.3	6	1	2	Over
10-01-23	@SEA	0-1W	3.7	0	0	4	Under
09-24-23	@SEA	8-9W	1.7	1	2	1	Over
09-20-23	@BOS	5-15W	4.7	3	0	5	Over
09-16-23	@CLE	1-2W	1.7	2	0	0	Under
09-13-23	@TOR	10-0L	1.0	1	0	0	Over

Brewers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/23	vs STL	2-0W	6	0	Under
04/22	vs STL	12-5W	18	3	Over
04/21	vs STL	2-1W	5	0	Under
04/19	@ SD	1-0W	3	0	Under
04/18	@ SD	3-6L	6	0	Over
04/17	@ SD	3-7L	10	1	Over
04/16	vs BAL	4-6L	12	2	Over
04/15	vs BAL	11-5W	15	2	Over
04/14	vs BAL	11-1W	15	3	Over
04/12	vs CIN	7-2W	6	2	Over
04/11	vs CIN	9-5W	13	0	Over
04/10	vs CIN	8-10L	12	2	Over
04/09	@ SEA	12-4W	14	3	Over
04/08	@ SEA	3-5L	5	1	Over
04/07	@ SEA	6-5W	8	3	Over

Pirates Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/23	@ BOS	1-6L	7	0	Under
04/22	@ BOS	2-4L	9	1	Under
04/21	@ BOS	1-8L	4	0	Over
04/19	vs NYM	1-9L	5	0	Over
04/18	vs NYM	1-3L	5	0	Under
04/17	vs NYM	3-6L	3	0	Over
04/16	vs PHI	8-2W	10	3	Over
04/15	vs PHI	3-4L	5	1	Under
04/14	vs PHI	5-2W	9	0	Under
04/13	vs PHI	1-5L	7	0	Under
04/11	@ DET	3-5L	8	2	Over
04/10	@ DET	7-4W	12	1	Over
04/09	@ BAL	3-2W	7	0	Under
04/08	@ BAL	5-4W	11	1	Over
04/07	@ BAL	2-5L	6	2	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Milwaukee Brewers	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Sal Frelick	7.4	9.4	0.293	0.32	41.3%	73.3%	0.0%
#3 Willy Adames	6.8	8.8	0.312	0.5	43.8%	93.8%	3.8%
#4 Rhys Hoskins	6.2	8.4	0.217	0.435	34.8%	78.3%	5.8%
#5 William Contreras	7.1	9.4	0.366	0.573	50.0%	107.3%	4.9%
#5 Oliver Dunn	6.7	8.4	0.224	0.347	28.6%	63.3%	2.0%
#6 Gary Sanchez	6.0	7.5	0.152	0.273	18.2%	45.5%	3.0%
#7 Blake Perkins	5.8	7.5	0.354	0.542	47.9%	102.1%	4.2%
#8 Brice Turang	5.1	6.5	0.333	0.5	42.4%	92.4%	3.0%
#9 Jackson Chourio	4.8	6.3	0.225	0.408	31.0%	71.8%	5.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Connor Joe	8.5	11.5	0.286	0.476	44.4%	92.1%	3.2%
#2 Bryan Reynolds	8.6	11.3	0.264	0.391	43.7%	82.8%	2.3%
#3 Ke’Bryan Hayes	8.1	10.6	0.28	0.36	46.7%	82.7%	0.0%
#4 Jack Suwinski	7.7	10.3	0.191	0.309	30.9%	61.8%	2.9%
#5 Andrew McCutchen	7.9	10.6	0.173	0.269	32.7%	59.6%	1.9%
#6 Rowdy Tellez	6.9	8.9	0.21	0.258	32.3%	58.1%	1.6%
#7 Joey Bart	5.6	7.6	0.312	0.75	56.2%	131.2%	12.5%
#8 Oneil Cruz	7.9	10.0	0.209	0.326	27.9%	60.5%	3.5%
#9 Henry Davis	5.5	7.4	0.182	0.236	34.5%	58.2%	0.0%
#9 Jared Triolo	5.7	7.3	0.227	0.28	33.3%	61.3%	1.3%