Mets vs Braves Game Breakdown & Projections – Wed, Apr 10th 2024

Alright, sports junkies, grab your peanuts and Cracker Jacks because we’ve got a juicy MLB showdown tonight that’s hotter than a ballpark frank! The New York Mets, trailing their tails at 4W-7L, are packing their gloves and heading south to Truist Park, ready to duke it out with the Atlanta Braves, who are sitting pretty with a 7W-3L record. The Mets are looking to close that pesky 3.5 game gap in the National League conference, while the Braves are holding steady at the top, not giving an inch. The first pitch is set to sizzle across the plate at 07:20PM EST, under an overcast sky with winds blowing in from the southeast at 9.4 mph. With the temperature hovering at a cool 64.9° and the humidity at 84%, it’s a perfect night for some baseball! The betting lines are buzzing, with the over/under set at 9.5, the Mets at 139, and the Braves at -165. The Braves are riding high after their 6-5 victory over the Mets just yesterday, while the Mets are still smarting from that one-run loss. So, will the Mets ‘met’ their match again, or will the Braves find themselves in a ‘brave’ new world of disappointment? Stay tuned, folks!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 10, 2024 07:20PM EST

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

Weather: Overcast with winds from the SE at 9.4 mph. Temperature is at 64.9° with 84% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+139	-165	9.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+136	-162	9.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-3	+3	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

111W-133L

42.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

150W-93L

57.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/08/24	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+5.5
04/08/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+5.5
04/09/24	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+1.5
04/09/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+1.5
04/28/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-5.5
04/28/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-5.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	21	Over	+14.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Over	+14.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-1.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-1.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+7.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+7.5
06/06/23	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+0.5
06/06/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+0.5
06/07/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+2.5
06/07/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+2.5
06/08/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+13.5
06/08/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	13	Over	+13.5
08/11/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-2.5
08/11/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-2.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Under	-3.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-3.5
08/13/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+3.5
08/13/23	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+3.5
08/21/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+4.5
08/21/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+4.5
08/22/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-4.5
08/22/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-4.5
08/23/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-2.5
08/23/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-2.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Braves Vs Over/Under

Adrian Houser

ERA 4.284 | IP 111.3 | 8.0W-5.0L | KO 96.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-05-24	@CIN	3-2W	5.7	5	1	4	Under
03-29-24	vsMIL	3-1L	4.7	6	2	4	Under
09-30-23	vsPHI	4-11W	4.0	7	4	5	Over
09-23-23	@PHI	5-7L	6.0	8	6	10	Over
09-17-23	vsCIN	4-8W	6.7	8	2	2	Over
09-11-23	vsARI	4-3L	5.0	5	2	4	Under
09-05-23	@WAS	11-5W	7.0	4	1	4	Over
08-29-23	vsTEX	2-1L	6.0	3	0	5	Under
08-23-23	@ATL	0-7L	5.3	9	5	5	Under
08-17-23	@STL	4-2W	6.0	3	2	5	Under
04-09-24	@ATL	5-6L	5.0	8	5	1	Over
04-04-24	vsDET	6-3L	5.0	3	1	3	Under
10-01-23	@CHC	0-4W	5.0	3	0	5	Under
09-26-23	@STL	4-1L	5.0	3	4	5	Under
09-20-23	@STL	8-2L	6.0	4	1	4	Over
09-14-23	@MIA	2-4W	5.0	5	2	5	Under
08-27-23	@SD	6-10W	2.0	4	4	2	Over
08-20-23	@TEX	6-2L	5.0	6	1	7	Under
08-15-23	@LAD	2-6W	5.3	5	4	6	Under
08-09-23	@COL	6-7W	5.0	5	4	5	Over

Allan Winans

ERA 5.289 | IP 32.3 | 1.0W-2.0L | KO 34.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-09-24	vsNYM	5-6W	6.0	3	0	6	Over
04-02-24	@CWS	2-3L	6.0	4	1	5	Under
09-29-23	@DET	7-5L	1.0	2	0	1	Over
09-27-23	@CIN	3-4W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
09-22-23	@BAL	8-9W	1.0	0	0	1	Over
09-21-23	@BAL	2-5W	1.0	1	0	2	Under
09-18-23	@KC	4-6W	0.3	0	0	1	Over
09-16-23	@TEX	1-2W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
09-12-23	@SF	3-1L	1.0	0	0	1	Under
09-11-23	@SF	4-5W	0.7	1	0	0	Under
09-29-23	vsWAS	10-6L	5.3	6	6	2	Over
09-24-23	@WAS	2-3L	5.0	7	2	6	Under
09-10-23	vsPIT	2-5W	6.3	6	2	8	Under
08-21-23	vsNYM	10-4L	4.3	9	7	4	Over
08-12-23	@NYM	21-3W	7.0	4	0	9	Over
07-22-23	@MIL	3-4L	4.3	5	2	5	Under

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/11	vs ATL	5-6L	12	1	Over
04/10	vs ATL	8-7W	11	3	Over
04/09	vs CIN	3-1W	9	1	Under
04/08	vs CIN	6-9L	11	0	Over
04/07	vs CIN	3-2W	4	1	Under
04/06	@ DET	2-1W	3	1	Under
04/06	@ DET	3-6L	6	0	Under
04/03	@ DET	0-5L	5	0	Under
04/02	@ MIL	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/01	@ MIL	6-7L	12	3	Over
03/31	@ MIL	1-3L	1	1	Under
10/04	@ MIA	1-2L	5	0	Under
10/03	@ PHI	1-9L	2	1	Over
10/02	@ PHI	11-4W	9	3	Over
10/02	@ PHI	4-3W	5	1	Under

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/11	@ NYM	6-5W	11	0	Over
04/10	@ NYM	7-8L	12	1	Over
04/09	@ ARI	5-2W	7	3	Under
04/08	@ ARI	9-8W	15	1	Over
04/07	@ ARI	6-5W	12	1	Over
04/04	vs CWS	2-3L	5	2	Under
04/03	vs CWS	9-0W	11	1	Under
04/02	vs PHI	4-5L	7	1	Under
04/01	vs PHI	12-4W	19	4	Over
03/31	vs PHI	9-3W	13	0	Over
10/03	@ WAS	9-10L	11	2	Over
10/02	@ WAS	5-3W	11	1	Under
10/01	@ WAS	6-10L	17	0	Over
09/30	@ CHC	5-3W	6	1	Under
09/29	@ CHC	6-5W	9	2	Over

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Brandon Nimmo	9.6	12.5	0.275	0.469	41.8%	88.6%	4.1%
#2 Starling Marte	8.6	10.8	0.248	0.324	32.4%	64.8%	1.6%
#3 Francisco Lindor	8.7	11.6	0.254	0.472	38.5%	85.6%	5.2%
#4 Pete Alonso	8.4	11.4	0.218	0.506	36.8%	87.4%	8.1%
#5 Francisco Alvarez	6.9	9.3	0.208	0.438	31.1%	74.9%	6.6%
#5 Brett Baty	6.9	9.0	0.214	0.326	30.0%	62.6%	2.6%
#6 DJ Stewart	7.9	10.6	0.236	0.497	36.9%	86.6%	7.0%
#7 Jeff McNeil	6.3	8.0	0.27	0.378	36.6%	74.4%	1.7%
#7 Tyrone Taylor	6.4	8.5	0.234	0.446	28.1%	72.7%	4.3%
#8 Harrison Bader	6.1	7.9	0.232	0.35	29.6%	64.6%	2.2%
#9 Omar Narvaez	4.9	6.3	0.211	0.297	32.0%	61.7%	1.6%

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ronald Acuna Jr.	12.0	15.6	0.34	0.599	47.9%	107.8%	6.4%
#2 Ozzie Albies	9.8	12.9	0.28	0.515	37.2%	88.7%	5.6%
#3 Austin Riley	8.5	11.3	0.28	0.517	38.8%	90.5%	5.9%
#4 Matt Olson	10.0	13.5	0.283	0.604	46.2%	106.6%	8.9%
#5 Marcell Ozuna	7.9	10.5	0.276	0.565	39.0%	95.4%	7.6%
#6 Adam Duvall	7.9	10.5	0.245	0.522	33.0%	85.2%	6.3%
#6 Michael Harris II	8.8	11.3	0.293	0.478	35.3%	83.1%	3.6%
#7 Orlando Arcia	7.0	9.1	0.267	0.424	35.3%	77.7%	3.5%
#8 Travis d’Arnaud	6.4	8.5	0.224	0.388	31.6%	70.3%	3.8%
#9 Jarred Kelenic	7.0	9.1	0.253	0.418	36.7%	78.5%	3.0%
#9 Chadwick Tromp	5.4	7.0	0.125	0.188	12.5%	31.2%	0.0%