Mets vs Braves Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Apr 11th 2024

Alright, buckle up sports junkies because we’re diving headfirst into a juicy midday showdown at Truist Park, where the 4W-7L New York Mets are looking to turn things around against the red-hot 7W-3L Atlanta Braves. These boys are stepping onto the diamond at 12:20PM EST, with the Mets trailing 3.5 games in the National League conference and the Braves sitting pretty atop the rankings. Now, the bookies have set the over/under at 9.5, with the Mets at 139 and the Braves favored at -165. The Braves are riding high on the wave of a recent 6-5 victory against the Mets, who are still smarting from that loss. The weather’s looking a bit gloomy – overcast, winds from the south at 10.5 mph, and a balmy 68 degrees with 90% humidity. So, whether you’re a Met maven or a Brave believer, it’s time to hunker down and see if the Mets can ‘met’ out some revenge or if the Braves will continue to ‘brave’ their way to victory.

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 11, 2024 12:20PM EST

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

Weather: Overcast with winds from the S at 10.5 mph. Temperature is at 68.0° with 90% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+139	-165	9.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+143	-174	9.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+4	-9	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

111W-133L

41.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

150W-93L

58.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/08/24	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+5.5
04/08/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+5.5
04/09/24	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+1.5
04/09/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+1.5
04/28/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-5.5
04/28/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-5.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	21	Over	+14.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Over	+14.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-1.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-1.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+7.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+7.5
06/06/23	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+0.5
06/06/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+0.5
06/07/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+2.5
06/07/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+2.5
06/08/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+13.5
06/08/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	13	Over	+13.5
08/11/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-2.5
08/11/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-2.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Under	-3.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-3.5
08/13/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+3.5
08/13/23	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+3.5
08/21/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+4.5
08/21/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+4.5
08/22/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-4.5
08/22/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-4.5
08/23/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-2.5
08/23/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-2.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Braves Vs Over/Under

Jose Quintana

ERA 3.568 | IP 75.7 | 3.0W-6.0L | KO 60.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-05-24	@CIN	3-2W	5.7	5	1	4	Under
03-29-24	vsMIL	3-1L	4.7	6	2	4	Under
09-30-23	vsPHI	4-11W	4.0	7	4	5	Over
09-23-23	@PHI	5-7L	6.0	8	6	10	Over
09-17-23	vsCIN	4-8W	6.7	8	2	2	Over
09-11-23	vsARI	4-3L	5.0	5	2	4	Under
09-05-23	@WAS	11-5W	7.0	4	1	4	Over
08-29-23	vsTEX	2-1L	6.0	3	0	5	Under
08-23-23	@ATL	0-7L	5.3	9	5	5	Under
08-17-23	@STL	4-2W	6.0	3	2	5	Under

Allan Winans

ERA 5.289 | IP 32.3 | 1.0W-2.0L | KO 34.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-29-23	vsWAS	10-6L	5.3	6	6	2	Over
09-24-23	@WAS	2-3L	5.0	7	2	6	Under
09-10-23	vsPIT	2-5W	6.3	6	2	8	Under
08-21-23	vsNYM	10-4L	4.3	9	7	4	Over
08-12-23	@NYM	21-3W	7.0	4	0	9	Over
07-22-23	@MIL	3-4L	4.3	5	2	5	Under

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/11	vs ATL	5-6L	12	1	Over
04/10	vs ATL	8-7W	11	3	Over
04/09	vs CIN	3-1W	9	1	Under
04/08	vs CIN	6-9L	11	0	Over
04/07	vs CIN	3-2W	4	1	Under
04/06	@ DET	3-6L	6	0	Under
04/06	@ DET	2-1W	3	1	Under
04/03	@ DET	0-5L	5	0	Under
04/02	@ MIL	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/01	@ MIL	6-7L	12	3	Over
03/31	@ MIL	1-3L	1	1	Under
10/04	@ MIA	1-2L	5	0	Under
10/03	@ PHI	1-9L	2	1	Over
10/02	@ PHI	4-3W	5	1	Under
10/02	@ PHI	11-4W	9	3	Over

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/11	@ NYM	6-5W	11	0	Over
04/10	@ NYM	7-8L	12	1	Over
04/09	@ ARI	5-2W	7	3	Under
04/08	@ ARI	9-8W	15	1	Over
04/07	@ ARI	6-5W	12	1	Over
04/04	vs CWS	2-3L	5	2	Under
04/03	vs CWS	9-0W	11	1	Under
04/02	vs PHI	4-5L	7	1	Under
04/01	vs PHI	12-4W	19	4	Over
03/31	vs PHI	9-3W	13	0	Over
10/03	@ WAS	9-10L	11	2	Over
10/02	@ WAS	5-3W	11	1	Under
10/01	@ WAS	6-10L	17	0	Over
09/30	@ CHC	5-3W	6	1	Under
09/29	@ CHC	6-5W	9	2	Over

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Brandon Nimmo	9.7	12.7	0.275	0.469	41.8%	88.6%	4.1%
#2 Starling Marte	7.2	9.1	0.248	0.324	32.4%	64.8%	1.6%
#3 Francisco Lindor	8.9	11.8	0.254	0.472	38.5%	85.6%	5.2%
#4 Pete Alonso	8.1	11.1	0.218	0.506	36.8%	87.4%	8.1%
#5 Brett Baty	6.7	8.7	0.214	0.326	30.0%	62.6%	2.6%
#6 Francisco Alvarez	6.5	8.8	0.208	0.438	31.1%	74.9%	6.6%
#7 Jeff McNeil	6.4	8.2	0.27	0.378	36.6%	74.4%	1.7%
#8 DJ Stewart	7.0	9.4	0.236	0.497	36.9%	86.6%	7.0%
#9 Harrison Bader	5.2	6.8	0.232	0.35	29.6%	64.6%	2.2%

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ronald Acuna Jr.	10.4	13.5	0.34	0.599	47.9%	107.8%	6.4%
#2 Ozzie Albies	8.6	11.4	0.28	0.515	37.2%	88.7%	5.6%
#3 Austin Riley	9.7	12.8	0.28	0.517	38.8%	90.5%	5.9%
#4 Matt Olson	8.5	11.5	0.283	0.604	46.2%	106.6%	8.9%
#5 Marcell Ozuna	8.3	11.1	0.276	0.565	39.0%	95.4%	7.6%
#6 Adam Duvall	7.6	10.1	0.245	0.522	33.0%	85.2%	6.3%
#7 Michael Harris II	7.4	9.4	0.293	0.478	35.3%	83.1%	3.6%
#8 Orlando Arcia	6.9	9.0	0.267	0.424	35.3%	77.7%	3.5%
#9 Chadwick Tromp	5.1	6.7	0.125	0.188	12.5%	31.2%	0.0%