Strategy and Stats for 04/25/24 MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Today’s MLB fantasy slate is brimming with excitement as we gear up for 10 thrilling games, kicking off at 12:35 PM EST. Fantasy enthusiasts will be particularly focused on the high-stakes battle at Coors Field, where the San Diego Padres face off against the Colorado Rockies at 3:10 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at a whopping 10.5, this game is predicted to be a veritable feast of runs, making it a goldmine for hitters. As we delve into today’s matchups, keep an eye on the top projected players at each position, whose recent performances and matchups suggest they could be pivotal in crafting winning fantasy lineups. Stay tuned as we break down each game, providing you with the insights needed to dominate your daily fantasy contests.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Bryce Harper ($9400), Phillies – Projected 14.4 pts

Despite Philadelphia’s low ranking in generating fantasy points, Bryce Harper remains a pivotal player. Over the last ten games, Harper has seen a decrease in his performance with a drop in DraftKings points from 10.11 to 7.3, a -27.8% change. Similarly, his FanDuel points have decreased by -28.0%. His consistency in hits per game remains steady, but a significant decline in home runs per game from 0.33 to 0.1, a -69.7% change, impacts his fantasy value. With a DFS value score of 1.5, Harper’s high salary might not justify the investment today, especially against Nick Martinez who is tough on hitters.

Jake Cronenworth ($4400), Padres – Projected 14.0 pts

Jake Cronenworth offers a contrasting scenario. Despite San Diego’s even lower ranking in fantasy point generation, Cronenworth’s recent performance suggests a potential for value. His DraftKings points have only slightly decreased by -10.0% from 6.22 to 5.6. Notably, his runs per game have increased by 51.5%, and his walks per game have seen a significant rise of 59.1%. Facing Dakota Hudson, who ranks high in hits allowed per game, Cronenworth’s lower salary and a DFS value score of 3.2 make him an attractive option for today’s games.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Xander Bogaerts ($5100), Padres – Projected 13.9 pts

Xander Bogaerts has been showing a consistent uptick in his performance, making him a noteworthy pick for today’s DFS lineup. Over his last ten games, Bogaerts has averaged 6.9 DraftKings points, a 15% increase from his previous ten-game stretch. His batting has also improved, with a significant 142.4% increase in singles per game. Facing Dakota Hudson, who ranks 8th in hits allowed per game, Bogaerts’s ability to get on base could translate into valuable fantasy points. His DFS value score of 2.7 indicates strong value at a DraftKings salary of $5100.

Jose Altuve ($5600), Astros – Projected 12.7 pts

Jose Altuve remains a high-impact player at second base, averaging 11.6 DraftKings points over his recent games, reflecting a 14.7% improvement. His performance includes an impressive 36.4% increase in home runs per game compared to his previous ten games. Although his walks have decreased, his overall ability to contribute across multiple categories, including a steady rate of runs and total bases, makes him a valuable asset. Facing a mid-ranked pitcher from the Cubs, Altuve’s DFS value score of 2.3 positions him as a core value pick with a slightly higher salary of $5600.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Ryan McMahon ($5200), Rockies – Projected 12.8 pts

Ryan McMahon’s recent performance has shown a significant dip compared to his earlier games. Over the last 10 games, McMahon has averaged only 5.0 DraftKings points, a sharp -59.4% drop from his previous 10-game average of 12.33 points. Similarly, his FanDuel points fell by -60.1%, alongside declines in hits, total bases, and runs scored. Despite these struggles, his projected DFS value score stands at 2.5, indicating strong value at his current salary. This suggests a potential for rebound, especially for DFS players looking for a value pick who might return to his earlier form.

Jose Ramirez ($5900), Indians – Projected 11.4 pts

Jose Ramirez presents a more stable option at third base. His performance has been relatively consistent, with a slight increase in DraftKings points per game in the last 10 games compared to the previous set. His current average stands at 8.5 points per game, with a minimal increase of 0.7%. Ramirez has shown a notable improvement in home runs per game, up by 81.8%, and a slight increase in total bases. However, his runs per game have decreased by -60.0%. Despite facing Chase Anderson of the BOS, who ranks 13th in hits allowed per game, Ramirez’s projected DFS value score is 1.9, suggesting he might not provide the best value for his salary in today’s slate.

Daily Fantasy Sports: Shortstop Analysis

Trea Turner ($9800), Phillies – Projected 14.2 pts

Trea Turner’s recent surge in performance makes him a pivotal player in today’s DFS lineup. Over the last ten games, Turner has significantly improved, posting an impressive 111.7% increase in DraftKings points per game compared to the previous ten games. His hitting has been particularly strong, with a 53.2% increase in hits per game and a notable 127.3% increase in doubles per game. Despite a high DraftKings salary of $9800, Turner’s matchup against Nick Martinez, who ranks sixth in hits allowed per game, positions him as a potential high scorer. However, his DFS value score of 1.4 suggests caution, as his cost may not fully align with his expected output.

Corey Seager ($5700), Rangers – Projected 12.7 pts

Corey Seager, on the other hand, presents a more complex case. His performance has seen a downturn in the last ten games, with a -57.7% decrease in DraftKings points per game and a -40.0% decrease in hits per game. These stats are concerning, especially when considering his previous form. However, Seager’s lower DraftKings salary of $5700 and a DFS value score of 2.2 indicate he might still hold core value for today’s DFS contests. Facing Luis Castillo, who is fourth in hits allowed per game, could offer Seager a chance to bounce back and provide value to DFS players looking for a less expensive option at shortstop.

Catcher Insights: Key Players to Watch

J.T. Realmuto ($8600), Phillies – Projected 12.1 pts

J.T. Realmuto’s recent performance has shown a dip compared to his previous 10 games, with his DraftKings points per game falling by 25.2% to 5.9 and a significant decrease in hits per game by 42.6%. Despite these challenges, Realmuto faces Nick Martinez, who ranks 6th in hits allowed per game in the MLB. This matchup could offer Realmuto a chance to capitalize on Martinez’s susceptibility to giving up hits. However, his current DFS value score of 1.4 suggests caution for fantasy players considering his high salary.

Will Smith ($4800), Dodgers – Projected 11.5 pts

Will Smith, on the other hand, presents a more intriguing option at a significantly lower cost. Despite a 31.2% decrease in DraftKings points per game recently, Smith’s overall performance remains solid with an average of 6.8 points. Facing Mackenzie Gore, who is also prone to allowing hits, Smith’s matchup looks favorable. His improved walk rate, up by 127.3%, indicates a potential for higher on-base percentages, contributing positively to his fantasy outputs. With a DFS value score of 2.4, Smith stands out as a core value pick in today’s slate.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6000), Padres – Projected 14.9 pts

Despite San Diego’s low rank in generating fantasy points, Fernando Tatis Jr. presents a 2.5 DFS value score today. Over his last ten games, Tatis Jr. has seen a slight dip in performance compared to the previous ten, with a 21.3% decrease in DraftKings points per game. However, his matchup against Dakota Hudson, who ranks #8 in hits allowed per game, positions him for potential success. Notably, Tatis Jr. has improved his walk rate significantly, which could translate into more scoring opportunities. His current form and matchup make him a strong value pick for today’s games.

Aaron Judge ($9600), Yankees – Projected 14.3 pts

Aaron Judge’s recent performance metrics might raise concerns, with a 23.2% drop in DraftKings points per game over the last ten games. Despite this, Judge faces Alex Wood, who is #2 in hits allowed per game, suggesting a favorable matchup. However, his high DraftKings salary combined with a decrease in overall productivity, especially in walks and runs, results in a 1.5 DFS value score. Fantasy managers should weigh his potential for big plays against his recent downturn in consistent production when considering him for their lineup.