Strategy and Stats for 07/21/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

Today’s MLB fantasy landscape is buzzing with anticipation as we gear up for an action-packed slate of 15 games starting at 1:05 PM EST. Fantasy enthusiasts should particularly note the high-stakes battle at Coors Field, where the San Francisco Giants face off against the Colorado Rockies at 3:10 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at a whopping 11.0, this game is expected to be a treasure trove of fantasy points, making players from both teams top picks in today’s lineups. As we dive deeper into each matchup, keep an eye on the key players likely to make a significant impact, ensuring your fantasy team is poised for success.

Top 1B Players to Watch in Today’s DFS Slate

Bryce Harper ($5700), Phillies – Projected 13.2 pts

Bryce Harper, playing at 1B for the Phillies, has shown consistent performance in his recent games, averaging 12.9 daily fantasy points on DraftKings over the last ten games. With a slight increase in performance compared to his previous ten games, Harper’s ability to adapt and improve is evident. His matchup against Marco Gonzales, who ranks #257 in hits allowed per game, positions Harper for potential success. His DraftKings salary stands at $5700 with a projected point total of 13.2, giving him a DFS value score of 2.3. Harper’s recent uptick in walks and stable power-hitting with an increase in doubles and home runs per game suggests he could be a core value pick for today’s slate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4800), Blue Jays – Projected 12.9 pts

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, despite a noticeable dip in his last ten games, still holds potential for a rebound. Averaging 7.1 daily fantasy points on DraftKings recently, his performance has significantly dropped compared to his explosive output in the previous set of games. However, facing a pitcher from Detroit who ranks #287 in hits allowed per game might provide Guerrero with a chance to regain his form. With a DraftKings salary of $4800 and a projected point total of 12.9, his DFS value score is 2.7. Guerrero’s potential for improvement and lower salary could make him a strong value pick, especially if he capitalizes on the favorable matchup.

Daily Fantasy Sports: Top Second Basemen Picks

Brandon Lowe ($4400), Rays – Projected 12.8 pts

Brandon Lowe’s recent performance shows a mixed bag of results, but there’s potential for a strong game against Marcus Stroman of the Yankees. Over the last ten games, Lowe has seen a slight dip in his DraftKings points per game, scoring an average of 8.1 compared to 10.0 in the previous set of ten games, marking a -19.0% change. Despite this, his hits per game have increased by 46.1%, and his singles per game have impressively risen by 172.7%. However, his home run rate has dropped significantly by -54.5%. With a DraftKings salary of $4400 and a projected point total of 12.8, Lowe offers a DFS value score of 2.9, positioning him as a strong value play in today’s slate.

Ketel Marte ($5500), Diamondbacks – Projected 12.1 pts

Ketel Marte, on the other hand, faces an undefined pitcher from the Cubs, presenting an uncertain matchup. Marte’s recent performance has shown a decline in DraftKings points per game from 10.56 to 8.5, a decrease of -19.5%. His hits and total bases have also seen reductions of -9.8% and -36.9% respectively. Notably, his doubles per game have plummeted by -100.0%. Despite these challenges, Marte’s projected points stand at 12.1 with a DraftKings salary of $5500, resulting in a DFS value score of 2.2. This positions him as a core value pick, potentially rewarding for risk-tolerant DFS players.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Matt Chapman ($9200), Giants – Projected 13.8 pts

Matt Chapman’s recent performance has shown a significant dip compared to his earlier games. With a DraftKings points per game average dropping from 12.44 to 7.5, a stark -39.7% decrease, his current form raises concerns. His hitting metrics have also seen a decline, with hits per game falling by -62.4% and home runs per game by -69.7%. Despite these struggles, Chapman faces Austin Gomber, who ranks #219 in hits allowed per game, potentially offering a chance for Chapman to improve his stats. However, his high DraftKings salary of $9200 paired with a DFS value score of 1.5 suggests he might not be the best value pick for today’s slate.

Jose Ramirez ($5900), Indians – Projected 11.8 pts

Jose Ramirez presents a more intriguing option at a significantly lower cost. His performance has also seen a decline, with DraftKings points dropping by -28.2% from 9.89 to 7.1. However, he has shown some positive signs, such as an increase in singles per game by 142.4% and walks per game by 172.7%. Facing Michael King, who ranks #452 in hits allowed per game, Ramirez could capitalize on this matchup. With a DraftKings salary of $5900 and a DFS value score of 2.0, Ramirez offers a solid core value for today’s games.

Analyzing Top Shortstops for Today’s DFS Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6400), Royals – Projected 17.1 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has been on a tear recently, showcasing a significant uptick in his performance metrics. Over the last 10 games, Witt Jr. has elevated his game, averaging 13.8 DraftKings points per game, a substantial increase from the 8.56 points in the previous 10-game stretch. His hitting has been particularly impressive, doubling his hits per game from 1.0 to 2.0. Notably, his home run rate has seen a dramatic rise, hitting 0.4 per game up from 0.11. Facing a pitcher from the CWS who ranks #630 in hits allowed per game, Witt Jr.’s matchup is favorable, enhancing his appeal in today’s DFS contests. His DFS Value Score stands at 2.7, marking him as a strong value pick at shortstop.

Corey Seager ($5000), Rangers – Projected 14.0 pts

Corey Seager, priced at a more accessible $5000, presents a compelling case for inclusion in DFS lineups. Over his last 10 games, Seager has averaged 11.0 DraftKings points, a noticeable improvement over his earlier performances. His consistency at the plate remains solid, maintaining an average of about 1.1 hits per game. A standout statistic is his increased walk rate, which has skyrocketed by 627.3% to 0.8 per game. Facing Dean Kremer of the Orioles, who has a high rate of 7.17 hits allowed per game, Seager’s potential to exploit this matchup adds to his value. With a DFS Value Score of 2.8, Seager emerges as a strong value play in today’s games.

Top Catchers for Today’s Daily Fantasy Slate

Adley Rutschman ($5400), Orioles – Projected 12.9 pts

Adley Rutschman has shown a notable uptick in performance in his last ten games, making him a potentially valuable pick for today’s DFS lineup. With an average of 6.7 DraftKings points per game recently, which is a 25.7% increase from his previous ten games, Rutschman is demonstrating growth. His matchup against Andrew Heaney, who ranks #293 in hits allowed per game, further bolsters his prospects. Despite Baltimore’s low rank in generating fantasy points, Rutschman’s recent stats suggest he could outperform expectations. His DFS value score of 2.4 positions him as a core value pick in today’s slate.

Patrick Bailey ($8200), Giants – Projected 12.3 pts

Patrick Bailey, priced significantly higher at $8200, presents a more challenging value proposition. His performance has been relatively stable, with a slight 2.1% increase in DraftKings points per game over the last ten games compared to the previous set. Facing Austin Gomber, who has a high rate of hits allowed, could offer Bailey some opportunities to score. However, his high salary combined with a modest improvement in recent games results in a DFS value score of 1.5. This score indicates a less favorable value, suggesting that Bailey might not be the best investment for today’s DFS contests despite the potential for scoring against a weaker pitcher.

Analyzing Outfielder Prospects for Today’s DFS Slate

Juan Soto ($6100), Yankees – Projected 14.9 pts

Juan Soto has been a beacon of consistency for the Yankees, and his recent performances suggest an upward trajectory in his fantasy output. Over the last 10 games, Soto has averaged 11.3 DraftKings points per game, a notable improvement from his previous 10-game stretch where he averaged 9.89 points. This 14.3% increase is backed by a significant uptick in total bases per game, jumping from 1.44 to 2.8, an impressive 94.4% increase. Despite a decrease in walks per game, his hitting metrics, including a 92.3% increase in hits per game, position him as a strong play against Shane Baz of Tampa Bay, who has been generous in allowing hits. With a DFS value score of 2.4, Soto stands out as a core value pick in today’s DFS lineups.

Heliot Ramos ($9600), Giants – Projected 14.2 pts

Heliot Ramos, priced at a premium, faces a challenging evaluation in today’s DFS landscape. His recent performance shows a slight decline, with an average of 8.1 DraftKings points in his last 10 games, down 10% from the previous set of games. Although there’s a positive shift in his home run frequency — an 81.8% increase — his overall contribution in other categories like walks and runs has seen a significant downturn, notably an 85.1% decrease in walks per game. Facing Austin Gomber of Colorado, who ranks low in hits allowed, might seem an opportunity, but Ramos’ high salary and lower recent output yield a DFS value score of 1.5. This positions him as a risky choice, potentially not justifying his high cost in today’s slate.