Strategy and Stats for 07/31/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

Today’s MLB fantasy slate is packed with action as 14 games kick off, starting at 12:10 PM EST, promising a full day of baseball excitement. Fantasy managers should particularly note the high-stakes battle at Fenway Park, where the Seattle Mariners face the Boston Red Sox at 4:10 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at a whopping 9.5, this game is expected to be a treasure trove of hitting performances, making it a focal point for those looking to maximize their fantasy scores. As we dive into today’s matchups, keep an eye on the top projected players at each position, leveraging their recent stats and current form to guide your selections. This comprehensive breakdown will not only highlight potential fantasy standouts but also provide strategic insights to help you climb the leaderboards in your daily fantasy contests.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Bryce Harper ($5900), Philadelphia Phillies – Projected 12.4 pts

Bryce Harper’s recent performance has shown a significant dip compared to his previous games, with a drastic reduction in almost all statistical categories. Over the last ten games, Harper has only managed a 6.7 DraftKings points per game, a sharp decline from his earlier 13.33. His hitting has suffered notably, dropping from 1.44 hits per game to just 0.5. Despite these struggles, Harper’s matchup against Nestor Cortes, who ranks #269 in hits allowed per game, might offer a rebound opportunity. With a DFS Value Score of 2.1, Harper remains a core value pick, potentially underpriced given his high ceiling in favorable matchups.

None ($4700), Kansas City Royals – Projected 12.4 pts

The player known as None has shown a promising uptick in his recent performances, making him an intriguing option at first base. Over his last ten games, None has averaged 7.6 DraftKings points per game, an improvement over his previous average of 6.33. His consistency at the plate has been notable, with a significant increase in singles and a stable run production. Facing a pitcher from the CWS who ranks #536 in hits allowed per game could further enhance his value. With a DFS Value Score of 2.6, None offers strong value at a relatively low cost, making him a potentially savvy pick for today’s slate.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Ketel Marte ($5600), Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 14.3 pts

Ketel Marte has been on a notable upswing in his recent performances, making him a compelling pick for today’s daily fantasy sports. Over the last ten games, Marte has averaged 13.2 DraftKings points per game, showing a significant improvement from his previous ten games where he averaged 9.11 points. This 44.9% increase in fantasy points is largely attributed to a dramatic rise in home runs per game, soaring by 354.5%. Additionally, his total bases per game have more than doubled, increasing by 101.4%. Facing Mackenzie Gore, who ranks #175 in hits allowed per game, Marte’s matchup is favorable, reflected in his DFS value score of 2.6. This makes Marte a strong value play at second base in today’s DFS contests.

Jose Altuve ($5400), Houston Astros – Projected 12.7 pts

Jose Altuve, however, presents a more nuanced choice for DFS players today. His recent performance shows a decrease in DraftKings points per game, dropping by 20.8% to an average of 6.6 points. Despite a slight improvement in hits per game and doubles per game, his runs per game have significantly decreased by 46.4%. Facing Jake Woodford, who is ranked #32 in hits allowed per game, Altuve might find it challenging to exploit this matchup effectively. His DFS value score stands at 2.4, categorizing him as a core value pick. While Altuve is a seasoned player, his current form and matchup might not yield the highest returns in today’s slate.

Top 3B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Alex Bregman ($4400), Astros – Projected 11.8 pts

Alex Bregman’s recent performance might raise some eyebrows among daily fantasy sports enthusiasts. Over his last ten games, Bregman has seen a significant dip in production, averaging only 7.1 DraftKings points compared to 11.56 in the previous ten-game stretch, marking a -38.6% change. Despite this downturn, his matchup against Jake Woodford, who ranks #32 in hits allowed per game, presents a potential rebound opportunity. Bregman’s DFS value score stands at 2.7, positioning him as a strong value pick at third base for today’s slate.

Royce Lewis ($5300), Twins – Projected 11.8 pts

Royce Lewis, on the other hand, has faced even steeper challenges recently. His performance has declined by -60.9% in DraftKings points per game over the last ten games compared to the ten before that. Despite this, Lewis’s upcoming game against Luis Severino, who has a high rank of #407 for hits allowed per game, might offer some hope for improvement. However, with a DFS value score of 2.2, Lewis is seen as a core value pick, suggesting that while he has potential, there are risks involved given his recent form.

Top Shortstop Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6400), Royals – Projected 16.1 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has been a consistent performer for the Royals, showcasing a notable uptick in his fantasy output. Over his last ten games, Witt Jr. has averaged 14.7 DraftKings points per game, a 17.0% increase from his previous set of ten games. His ability to hit effectively, evidenced by an average of 2.1 hits per game recently, makes him a valuable asset against the CWS, who have been generous in allowing hits. With a DFS value score of 2.5, Witt Jr. stands out as a strong value pick in today’s lineup.

Elly De La Cruz ($6200), Reds – Projected 14.8 pts

Elly De La Cruz of the Reds presents an intriguing option at shortstop, especially considering his recent surge in performance. In his latest ten-game stretch, De La Cruz has managed an average of 13.5 DraftKings points per game, marking a 25.2% improvement over his prior ten games. His ability to contribute across various categories, including a significant increase in singles and home runs, positions him well against Kyle Hendricks of the CHC, who has a high rate of hits allowed per game. With a DFS value score of 2.4, De La Cruz is pegged as a core value player for today’s games.

Catcher Insights: Daily Fantasy Analysis

Cal Raleigh ($4600), Mariners – Projected 12.9 pts

Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners shows a promising uptick in fantasy value against Brayan Bello of the Red Sox. With a 2.8 DFS value score, Raleigh is positioned as a strong value pick. Over the last ten games, Raleigh’s performance has seen a dip with an 8.8 DraftKings points per game compared to 14.11 in the previous set, marking a -37.6% change. Despite this, his matchup against Bello, who ranks #185 in hits allowed per game, offers a potential rebound. Raleigh’s ability to capitalize on Bello’s vulnerability could make him a strategic pick for DFS players looking for value at the catcher position.

Adley Rutschman ($5600), Orioles – Projected 12.4 pts

Adley Rutschman, playing for the Baltimore Orioles, encounters Paolo Espino of the Blue Jays, who has a relatively high rate of hits allowed per game at #40. Rutschman’s recent performance shows a slight improvement with a DraftKings average of 5.4 points in the last ten games, up from 4.78 previously, a 13.0% increase. Despite these gains, his DFS value score rests at 2.2, categorizing him as a core value. His recent uptick in runs per game, a staggering 218.2% increase, and a stable walk rate suggest potential, but his overall impact might still be limited by his higher salary and moderate base-hitting stats. Rutschman could be a riskier play, suitable for those looking to differentiate their lineup.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Aaron Judge ($6500), Yankees – Projected 14.9 pts

Aaron Judge continues to be a powerhouse in the outfield for the Yankees. Over his last ten games, Judge has shown a significant improvement, averaging 15.6 DraftKings points per game, a stark increase from 7.67 in the previous set of ten games. This surge in performance is highlighted by a notable increase in home runs per game, up by 127.3%, and a consistent walk rate, improving by 46.1%. With a DraftKings salary of $6500 and a projected point total of 14.9, Judge offers a 2.3 DFS value score, positioning him as a core value pick for today’s slate. His ability to generate fantasy points, especially in a lineup ranked #8 in MLB for fantasy production, makes him an essential consideration for DFS players.

Yordan Alvarez ($5600), Astros – Projected 13.2 pts

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros presents an intriguing option in today’s DFS contests. Despite a recent dip in performance, with a 33.6% decrease in DraftKings points per game compared to his previous ten games, Alvarez’s matchup against Jake Woodford—who ranks #32 in hits allowed per game—could be a turning point. Alvarez’s ability to hit doubles has improved by 81.8%, and his total bases have slightly increased. With a DraftKings salary of $5600 and a projected point total of 13.2, Alvarez holds a 2.4 DFS value score. This positions him as another core value player who could potentially exploit a favorable pitching matchup and rebound in today’s game.