Getting close to the half way point in the season. On DraftKings, the 12 game main slate includes the SEA/ARI game that was pushed back to 8:20 PM EST. FanDuel also is including the late SEA/ARI game, but did not include the TB/LV game that was moved down to the afternoon making it an 11 game slate. Not a huge move, just be sure to consider the TB/LV game if you’re playing DraftKings.
Our favorite strategy, that has not let us down all season, is the opposing QB of whoever is playing the Falcons. So far this year they have let up 29.7, 23.8, 32.6 30.8, 42.8, and 32.8 points. No one is talking about him this week, but we will be sneaking Matthew Stafford in some lineups and pairing with Amendola or Golladay and possibly the Tight End Hockenson.
Kyler Murray could be heading for a bit of a shoot out and is only slightly more expensive and a solid #2 choice followed by Big Ben, Josh Allen, and maybe even Joe Burrow down at $5500, who can easily slide into value. Finally, a punt option could be Tom Brady who will find low ownership in a game only on the DraftKings slate. Brady will probably be forgotten by most and he does have a decent matchup against the Raiders followed plus the added hype of Brown jumping on board in a couple weeks.
The big stand out running back this week is Alvin Kamara. Carolina gives up 33.3DK/29.3 fantasy points per game to the RB and is ranked the 29th defense defending the run. So far this year Josh Jacobs put up 31 pts against them, Gurley put up 28, Ekler scored 31.3, and even Fournette grabbed 30.6 week 4. They did hold David Montgomery to just 13.7 points last week, but Kamara isn’t David Montgomery and Montgomery did have a touchdown called back from the 4 inch line that the QB snuck in on the next play. Kamara is the #1 RB in the NFL by over 5 points per game! That is a 25% margin over the next closest performing running back. It might be chalk, but odds are high the perfect slate this week will have Alvin Kamara and it’s hard to ignore him in your lineups. Kareem Hunt is a distant #2 pick for the higher priced RB’s and a decent contrarian play for a top RB in your lineup. We would prefer to focus on more value plays with Justin Jackson and maybe Giovani Bernard who should get a bit more action with Joe Mixon out this week.
Keep in mind, Le’Veon Bell is back in the mix and although he really shouldn’t be considered as a play, he could work his way into the lineup enough to hurt CEH. We really don’t like the RB matchup with Denver to start, but even less so with the potential that he could be losing carries.
I don’t see how DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t get 100 yards and a TD this week against the worst defense in the NFL against the WR. It looks like a misprint, but sadly it’s not. The Seahawks give up an insane 26 points more than the NFL average to the WR. That is 15 points more than the 2nd worse team in the league. Granted two games really screwed this up when the Falcon’s Calvin Ridley/Julio Jones/ Russell Gage put up over 100pts followed by Dallas with over 90, however, Kirk and Hopkins should both find the end zone and are a great stack with Murray. Some good lower priced options include Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Terry McLaurin.
If I am paying up for a Tight End with Kelce, Waller, or Kittle, I’m probably going heavy Kelce. You can save a couple grand though with T.J. Hockeson who might also make an interesting stack option with Stafford. Tight ends score 7.9 points more against the Falcons and this does have the potential to be a QB/TE stack with no WR. That happens less than 20% of the time with a 12 game slate, but these are two cheaper plays and if Hockeson finds the end zone twice could push this play into the perfect lineup allowing you a lot of salary to spread out over the remaining positions.
That should do it for the main slate, good luck on your picks and remember if you place 1-3 in any contest with at least 10k players, while sporting our logo as your avatar, you get a free 30-day membership and an extra $50! Just send us a screenshot or tweet us.