The main slate this week includes the $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings. Last week Rob Huntze won $1 million dollars on this slate, called his mom, texted his friends, then took his dog for a celebratory walk around the neighborhood. When he got home DraftKings made an adjustment, took a sack away from the Chicago Bears, and dropped Rob’s score by one point sliding him into a tie for #6 instead of the #1 prize. This was a $997,000 adjustment for him as the 6th place tie only paid out $3000. Heartbreaking stat adjustment, Rob, wishing you better luck with the week 8 slate!
This is the week we need to begin keeping our eye on weather. Temps in the 30s and 40s hold little weight, but QB’s drop on average 2.5 fantasy points per game once winds hit 15MPH. Green Bay, Chicago, and New York are currently on our radar as possible fades, but so far so good.
Patrick Mahomes up against the New York Jets doesn’t look like a very fair matchup on the surface, but lets not also forget that the Jets flew Mahomes out to New York two weeks before the 2017 draft, showed a ton of interest in Patrick, then skipped right over him in the draft. So if the Chiefs are up 24+ headed into the 4th don’t be surprised if you see a couple more deep balls just to remind the Jets why they are 0-7. At $8100/$9200 DK/FD Mahomes will need 3 TD’s and 300 yards to be of value, so some risk Bell and CEH run a couple in, but we’d be shocked KC doesn’t put up at least 4TD’s tomorrow.
Aaron Rodgers stacked with Davante Adams was a big win for us last week and this could be a repeat performance. Vegas has this as the highest O/U of the week. Aaron Jones has been ruled out so we once again will have some stacks with Rodgers, Adams, Williams with possible runbacks of Thielen, Jefferson, or Cook.
Tyler Lockett was our DFS player of the week last week. With the risk of doing double back to backs, we will have some exposure to Russell Wilson again. Our conviction is not as high as last week since SF does have a great defense, holding QB’s to 3 points under the league average and WR’s down 7.1. Wilson will head into the game knowing how bad his defense is and in order to pull off a win he needs to put up 28+ so he should be throwing early.
Joe Burrow had an insane game last week and looks to be the real deal. We had some exposure to him with Boyd stacked last week, but he did follow up with a rather large price increase for week 8. The matchup is solid and this could turn into a shootout though. The Titans are the 3rd worst team in the NFL against the WR, but the price increase makes us a bit less confident week 8.
Finally, Derek Carr is a great low priced option up against a favorable matchup and the 2nd worst team in the NFL against the WR. Some great cheap stacks here that all could hit for 2 TDs and give a lot of room to fit in some studs. Nelson Agholor put up 24 points last week and Ruggs 22 the week before. Both priced under 5K could be really great value as low priced options. Our simulations show an 18% chance Carr throws 3 TD’s for over 300 yards and if two of those go to Ruggs or Agholor you could have your stack of the week just over $10k.
Dalvin Cook is coming off an injury against the worst team in the NFL defending the run. Ronald Jones put up 29 points, Kamara put up 47.7, and last time Cook played them early he put up 22 while Mattison grabbed another 12. As long as Cook doesn’t lose a TD to Mattison he should pay off nicely as a top tier RB.
Bell again has us less excited about CEH. Kansas City will be running the ball enough as this should hit blowout status quick, but if they split carries both might fail. Last week Bell only took 6 carries. This week we expect 7-9+. If we have $6500 to spend on CEH we probably choose Jacobs at $6200.
Not much to hate with Derrick Henry vs the Bengals Defense. Bengals have had an average defense against the run. Last week Henry went up against the best defense in the league and still got 15 points. Bengals give up 8 points more than the Steelers D and Henry should get all of that this week with 24 points.
Brandon Aiyuk put up 20.50 points against the 10th best defensive team in the NFL last week with 115 yards and 6 catches. This week he goes up against the dead last defensive team and should add in a TD. With a price tag of $5800/$5900 this is some good value on DraftKings add a great value play on FanDuel. With Deebo Samuel confirmed out for Week 8 this is our sleeper pick of the week. The only thing stopping Aiyuk in Week 8 is Kittle stealing his TD’s, but lucky for Brandon that is the only thing Seattle has managed to defend this year.
The only reason Tyreek Hill doesn’t have the most points amongst WR’s in week 8 is the Chiefs get bored and sit their starters in what should be a huge blowout. The odds on this game have fallen -11 to now -20. Vegas is spotting the Jets 3 TDs! The only thing stopping Hill is the Chiefs. They should have so little trouble scoring that he could be under utilized. We will have exposure, and technically he could get 150+ with 2TDs in the first half, but we are highly concerned about the rest of the game. The lopsidedness of this matchup makes us nearly want to fade it entirely, but if the Jets can put up any amount of a fight, Mahomes/Hill could be the stack of the week.
If the Jets do put up some points keep an eye on Denzel Mims this week. Kansas City is exceptional against the WR and Denzel has only seen the field once and that was a week ago where he grabbed 8 points with 4 receptions and 42 yards. If he is looking to make a statement his rookie season, why not do it against the top team in the league. With his price tag he only needs a few touches and 50 yards to hit value and if he finds the end zone could quickly hit 5+ value.
Davante Adams is expensive, but against Minnesota he should pay out again. Last week he was on fire for us and with Aaron Jones out again he is their #1 threat on offense. It’s the highest scoring matchup of the week and Minnesota has a bad defense. Last week Davante Adams put up 47.6 points against a very similar defense.
Darren Waller is our favorite this week. As bad as Seattle is at Defense the one position that has struggled against them all year is the TE so it pushes us off George Kittle. We don’t hate George Kittle here, but at $7k we just like Darren Waller at lot more. Cleveland is #26 against the TE and allows about 3 points more than average. Only twice this year has Waller been held to under 15pts and he should find the end zone in week 8.
The Chiefs will all be fighting for TDs and Kelce could also grab 1 or 2. Jonnu Smith against the Bengals is a great matchup. We can easily seeing him getting another 5+ value in a high scoring shootout. Jonnu is a little pricy on FanDuel so we really only like him on a DraftKings lineup.
That should do it for the main slate, good luck on your picks and remember if you place 1-3 in any contest with at least 10k players, while sporting our logo as your avatar, you get a free 30-day membership and an extra $50! Just send us a screenshot or tweet us.