NFL EDGE REPORT FOR WEEK 10: WHAT IS GOING ON WITH MIKE DAVIS?

The Main Slate this week has 14 games. Stacking a QB with another offensive player has been part of a perfect lineup in the NFL Main Slate 84.8% of the time. Here are the outcomes of QB stacks over the last 3 years.

STACK% IN PERFECT LINEUP
QB/WR69.7%
QB/RB15.2%
QB/TE24.2%
QB/Stack + 1 Teammate84.8%
QB/Stack + Runback60.6%
QB/Stack + Runback WR39.4%
QB/Stack + Runback RB15.2%
QB/Stack + Runback TE6.1%
*Runback is a player on the opposing team of the QB Stack

Running Backs

Let’s start with the elephant in the room this week. Mike Davis is playing and Christian McCaffrey is ruled out. Mike Davis is still priced at a minimum RB2 in an offense that produces the most top RB stats over the last 2 years with McCaffrey. This might be the chalk play of the year as everyone will see this and be on it and he will very possibly be owned in 50% of lineups. That’s about where I’ll be in on most of my lineups if not a bit higher. To be value he needs 12 points. We currently have him projected at 19.5 pts. BUT – Here is where it gets weird…

We grab slates from FanDuel and DraftKings as soon as they are released. The prices set for a slate never change as those entries can begin immediately after release….except this time. Everyone is talking about Mike Davis being the chalk of the week, but he was priced on DraftKings at $6700 when they released the main slate early in the week and we still hav. Something happened. His price is now mistakenly dropped to RB2 minimum or $4000. This was not intentional, in our opinion, and was mid-week error by DraftKings. This sent multiple bugs into our optimizer as we began getting two prices for Mike Davis, one at $6700 and another at $4000 on DraftKings Main Slate.

The final price is set though and by all accounts eat the Mike Davis chalk at $4000, however, if you try to take him in the Early Only Slate or the Sun-Mon slate, he is still a decent play, but your paying his correct price of $6700 or a 68% increase over the main slate. This really makes Mike Davis the free bonus square of the week and you could see him on 80%+ cash lineups and over 50% of GPP. No word from DraftKings yet on two different prices, but unreasonable to think this wasn’t just some early-week error that made it live only on the main slate.

Assuming you eat the chalk our next favorite is Aaron Jones. Weather is currently looking like some decent winds over 15mph on Sunday. The Panthers are 30th in the league against the run allowing 8.1pts from the RB over the NFL average. Aaron Jones is our favorite RB play above $6000 this week and has our highest projection in the main slate field.

QuarterBacks

Kyler Murray has felt like a cheat code these last few weeks. 40pts back to back and over 24pts every game this year. Not sure what else to say about this guy. He consistently outperforms and is like have the potential of a top tier Quarterback or top tier Running Back each week. Hard not to have exposure here in a matchup that could become a shootout with Josh Allen.

Josh Allen is right up there and going head to head with Kyler Murray. Between these two QB’s we expect over 30% of ownership to be eaten up. You get Josh Allen for a slightly cheaper price, going head to head with what looks to be a perfect weather shootout between two young NFL QB’s.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams price is now sky high, as it should be, but at $9000. Davante has put up over 30pts these last 3 games and last week got 36pts even though Marquez Valdes-Scantling snagged two TDs. The Panthers have an average defense against the WR, but those winds are currently above 20mph and expected between 15-20. Hard to pay up top field price in a less than perfect game, but he is the only stud receiver on the Packers and could still grab 2 TDs, on 10 receptions, and +150yds. I’ll have some exposure, but we expect the field to be over 25% and I’ll be quite a bit less than that.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller is the top name of the slate, but priced at nearly 40% more than the rest of the field. He might be only $5900, but rather take a look at Austin Hooper, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert. Drop under $5000 at TE and move on. Definitely, worth noting that last time Dallas Goedert played Washington was on September 13th where he put up 27.1 pts with 101 yds, a TD, and 9 catches.