We have a very full 13 game main slate this week. Stacking a QB with another offensive player has been part of a perfect lineup in the NFL Main Slate 84.8% of the time. Here are the outcomes of QB stacks over the last 3 years for slates of comparable to this weeks.
|STACK||% IN PERFECT LINEUP|
|QB/Stack + 1 Teammate||84.8%|
|QB/Stack + Runback||60.6%|
|QB/Stack + Runback WR||39.4%|
|QB/Stack + Runback RB||15.2%|
|QB/Stack + Runback TE||6.1%|
*Runback is a player on the opposing team of the QB Stack
It’s hard for us not to be distracted by the mismatch of the #3 rank passing offense Chargers going up against the worst team in the league defending it. Playing against the Falcons have worked so many times this year for us and this week should be no different. Justin Herbert should easily throw for 300+ yards and if he grabs 3 TDs he is going to be a great value. This should be a close game with a combined total of 49.5 pts and we are betting the over. Both teams have a high powered passing offense with bottom of the league defense defending it. Great play could be running back with Calvin Ridley or Russell Gage who won’t be competing with balls from Julio Jones in week 14. After all that nearly an equally good option this week is Matt Ryan. Chargers are slightly better at defending the pass, but as they will be march down the field on the Falcons expect Ryan to be slinging this week as well.
We want to like Russell Wilson and will have some exposure, but the blow out potential against the Jets is very high. If somehow the Jets can make this game competitive we could easily see Wilson slide to the #1 value slot for QB and find his way into the perfect slate.
Ryan Tannehill put up 26.8 pts in September against the Jaguars and that was before their season went downhill. Now they are beaten down at 1-11, they got their one win from being complete losers, and Tennessee is moving in at 8-4. Tannehill is setup up for 300+ 3 TDs this week and could exceede that. Nobody is talking about him and could be just the low owned under 10% QB option to differentiate a slate.
I’ve said it the last two weeks. When the matchup is favorable consider David Montgomery. Back to back solid weeks and this week he is up against the Texans. My god, I get he is hard to add to your lineup, but the Texans suck against the run. Montgomery put up 27.1 and 28.3 points back to back weeks and now he plays the Texans. Bears have proven they don’t know how to throw the ball well and the run works great against Houston. I think he beats our projections for the third straight week.
Let’s stay in the NFC for pick #2 Aaron Jones. Detroit is nearly as bad as the Texans against the run and Aaron Jones should find himself in a matchup where Packers are running the ball to kill time. Aaron is $2k less than the top of the slate picks, but has a solid chance of being the top RB of the week.
Finally, if you got the salary left over Derrick Henry needs a lot to hit value at $8700, but Jaguars. Nothing left to say. 3 of the 4 worst teams in the NFL this week make up our top 3 RB selections.
Fade: Be careful of Dalvin Cook in week 14. We love the guy and twice had him pick of the week and both times he was top RB. This week at $9400 against the Bucs is a bust.
Davante Adams is going to be awesome for probably one half of football. If it is more than that even at $9300 he could slide into the perfect slate, but it will all come down how competitive the game becomes. This has blowout potential, but Lions at home and 5-7 could keep the game close enough that Davante Adams ends up with 2 TDs 150+. At $9300 he needs that though to get perfect slate potential.
I want to like Brandin Cooks with Fuller out, but at $6100 we need to see 20 pts at least. I don’t know if he can get there against the Bears. Bears were #1 until last week when Jones put up 28.6 and Cephus got 14.3. Maybe this was an off week and maybe it was them throwing away the rest of the season. Hard to tell. It’s probably worth a couple % of your lineups, but be careful. Less than a handful of WR’s went over 20 fantasy points against them this season and their is a lot of value elsewhere.
If you want a cheap flyer take a look at Breshad Perriman. He has done very little this year, but does have blowout potential and he is playing the Seahawks who are known this year for hosting some blowout numbers.
Good luck in week 14. If you’re looking for an edge make sure to lock and load picks into our Fantasy Football optimizer (PREMIUM FEATURE). Also, check back during the games to see what is the current perfect slate at anytime during the games.