NFL EDGE REPORT FOR WEEK 15: DRAFTKINGS/FANDUEL TOP VALUE PLAYS

We have another full 11 game main slate this week. Stacking a QB with another offensive player has been part of a perfect lineup in the NFL Main Slate 84.8% of the time. Here are the outcomes of QB stacks over the last 3 years for slates of comparable to this weeks.

STACK% IN PERFECT LINEUP
QB/WR69.7%
QB/RB15.2%
QB/TE24.2%
QB/Stack + 1 Teammate84.8%
QB/Stack + Runback60.6%
QB/Stack + Runback WR39.4%
QB/Stack + Runback RB15.2%
QB/Stack + Runback TE6.1%

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts.  We could very likely see Jalen follow Kyler Murray stats and last week we watch him put up 150+ passing and 100+ rushing for a 3.9 value.  This week against Kyler Murray we could see Jalen have the blowout type numbers to put him into the $7000 QB range.  He only has to be decent to payout at this price and he could find himself on the perfect slate with an extra passing TD and/or running one in.  You can grab him for $1100 cheaper than Kyler and we think this might be the last time you see Jalen under $6000.

The Jets are #31 against the QB and Jared Goff is sitting here at $6300 just begging to be added to my lineup.  If you can stack him with a Ram WR that gets 2 TDs odds are those two will end up on the perfect slate.  The problem with the Jets is it always seems like everyone eats.  Very seldom do we see a blowout WR, but instead multiple WR’s with 15+.  Only Preston Williams managed multiple TDs against the Jets this year.

Lamar Jackson is up against the Jaguars and he has Marquise Brown back from Covid.  $7500 is too cheap on DraftKings and against the Jaguars we could see Lamar approach value with just a strong run performance.  This isn’t our top of the week, but its close.

Runningbacks

The last 4 weeks Alvin Kamara has fallen off the radar under QB Taysom Hill.  He managed to get in the endzone 3 of the 4 weeks, but 10.5, 6.2, 17.7, and 22.4 are not the points we are used to from Kamara.  This week Drew Brees is coming back and we expect Kamara to get the bulk of the New Orleans offense. At $7400/$7800 Kamara is running a 15-20% discount against the other top backs in the league with the potential to have the highest scoring game of the week against the Chiefs.

Derrick Henry is the highest priced running back this week again and against the #31 ranked Detroit run defense he might still be a bargain he had 200+ and 2TDs last week for just under 40 points and should get close to those numbers again, but at $9500 he needs them.

We had Jonathan Taylor last week and I hate to chase him after that big game, but the matchup is compelling.  I’ll have him in a few, but Hines is tempting as they balance out the backs a bit in what should be another blowout for Houston as they struggle against decent pass defenses.

Cam Akers at $6600 is in a great matchup against the Jets and is coming off a big 150+ yard game last week against New England.  Cam has quietly pu up 350+ yards and 2 TDs in the last 3 weeks and also had a couple targets in Week 14.

Last week we told you to fade Dalvin Cook.  He was our player of the week in week 8 and 9 when he scored 42.2 and 51.6 points, but against the Bears run defense it’s another pass from us and we will have little if any exposure.

Wide Receivers

The Chicago Bears are ranked 25th in the NFL in passing, but they are up against a Vikings team who are equally as bad at defending the pass ranked #26 with a QB that is trying to do anything he can to secure his job for next year.  The game should stay close and we believe Allen Robinson has a fair shot at 100+ and a TD which would put him well above value with his $7300DK/7400FD price tag.  Last game against Houston he was targeted 13 times for 9 catches.

A.J Brown has a great matchup this week against the Detroit Lions.  As long as this game can stay marginally close we should see 7+ targets to Brown.  The Lions are the 29th ranked team in the NFL against the WR

Tight Ends

Jared Cook is down to $3400 and this is another play on Drew Brees back and not watching Taysom Hill run every ball into the end zone.  Jared found the end zone twice in the last 2 week and with Drew back we expect a few more receptions out of Cook as well.  This is a DK pick only since he is over $2k cheaper there.

Irv Smith should score a TD in Week 15 against the Chicago Bears.  This guy didn’t put up a 1.0 in value until October, but since then is 4 for 6 in a 3.0+ and although the Bears are a top 10 defense against the QB and #3 against the WR, they suck against a TD.  Go figure but Chicago is #28 against the TE.  In only 3 games this year has a TE not scored against the Bears and one was the blowout last week, another was against the Vikings earlier this year when Kyle Rudolph was the teams TE.  Irv – TD – week 15….take it to the bank.