Nuggets vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Wed, Mar 13th 2024
Nuggets
45W-20L
March 13, 2024
07:30PM EST
Odds: 215.5 o/u
Heat
35W-29L
Well, hoop heads, it’s time to turn up the heat and strike gold! Tonight, we’re heading down to the Kaseya Center where the sizzling Denver Nuggets, boasting a sterling 45-20 record, are ready to rumble with the Miami Heat, who are holding their own with a respectable 35-29. The Nuggets, sitting pretty at the top of the Western conference, are looking to maintain their golden streak, while the Heat, just 1.5 games behind in the East, are eager to turn up the temperature. The betting gods have set the over/under at 215.5, with the Nuggets favored by a slim -3.0 margin. Now, the Heat may be nursing a recent bruise after a 108-110 tumble against the Wizards, but the Nuggets are still riding high on their 125-119 victory over the Raptors. So, buckle up for a night where we’ll find out if the Nuggets can weather the Heat or if Miami will melt Denver’s golden run. It’s going to be a slam dunk of a night, so don’t ‘nugget’ to tune in!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: March 13, 2024 07:30PM EST
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami
Vegas Odds
DEN ML | MIA ML | Over/Under | Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Open | -150 | +130 | 215.0 | -3.0/3.0 |
Recent | -165 | +140 | 215.5 | -3.5/3.5 |
Difference | -15 | +10 | +0.5 | – |
Team Performance
62.3% Win Probability
37.7% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02/29/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 20 | 31 | 19 | 27 | 97 | Under | ||
Denver Nuggets DEN | 36 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 103 | ||||
02/13/23 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 27 | 38 | 24 | 23 | 112 | Over | ||
Miami Heat MIA | 36 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 108 | ||||
12/30/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 19 | 38 | 33 | 29 | 119 | Over | ||
Denver Nuggets DEN | 23 | 37 | 25 | 39 | 124 | ||||
11/29/21 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 32 | 31 | 32 | 25 | 120 | Over | ||
Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 20 | 35 | 33 | 111 | ||||
11/08/21 | Miami Heat MIA | 25 | 24 | 21 | 26 | 96 | Under | ||
Denver Nuggets DEN | 30 | 34 | 27 | 22 | 113 |
Nuggets Vs Over/Under
Heat Vs Over/Under
Nuggets Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03/11 | @ TOR | 125-119W | 42 | 36 | 9 | 95 |
03/09 | @ UTA | 142-123W | 32 | 40 | 13 | 83 |
03/07 | @ BOS | 115-109W | 45 | 27 | 7 | 92 |
03/05 | @ PHX | 107-117L | 51 | 25 | 14 | 98 |
03/02 | vs LAL | 124-114W | 47 | 34 | 10 | 94 |
02/29 | @ MIA | 103-100W | 41 | 22 | 15 | 86 |
02/28 | @ SAC | 117-96W | 43 | 35 | 15 | 87 |
02/25 | vs GSW | 119-103W | 45 | 29 | 10 | 90 |
02/23 | vs POR | 127-112W | 45 | 38 | 12 | 85 |
02/22 | @ WAS | 130-110W | 60 | 41 | 16 | 101 |
Heat Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03/10 | @ WAS | 108-110L | 51 | 20 | 13 | 96 |
03/08 | vs OKL | 100-107L | 43 | 24 | 10 | 83 |
03/07 | vs DAL | 108-114L | 37 | 30 | 10 | 82 |
03/05 | @ DET | 118-110W | 42 | 27 | 9 | 85 |
03/02 | @ UTA | 126-120W | 34 | 33 | 6 | 90 |
02/29 | vs DEN | 97-103L | 45 | 21 | 14 | 84 |
02/27 | vs POR | 106-96W | 34 | 29 | 18 | 70 |
02/26 | vs SAC | 121-110W | 39 | 27 | 11 | 87 |
02/23 | vs NOP | 106-95W | 46 | 20 | 14 | 82 |
02/14 | vs PHI | 109-104W | 44 | 27 | 13 | 90 |
Starting Lineups
Denver Nuggets | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
21.1 | 24.4 | 20.2 | 100% | 20.5 | |
Aaron Gordon
PF
|
29.2 | 26.1 | 28.5 | 100% | 28.9 |
62.1 | 63.5 | 59.0 | 100% | 59.3 | |
Jamal Murray
PG
|
44.9 | 50.9 | 40.1 | 100% | 40.6 |
32.5 | 33.0 | 30.2 | 100% | 30.5 |
Miami Heat | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
43.1 | 28.4 | 38.8 | 100% | 38.2 | |
Jimmy Butler
SF
|
45.3 | 36.0 | 38.1 | 100% | 36.8 |
Nikola Jovic
PF
|
18.1 | 16.4 | 15.1 | 73% | 18.3 |
25.5 | 22.4 | 21.1 | 37% | 27.7 | |
Terry Rozier
PG
|
34.0 | 29.9 | 33.9 | 93% | 34.9 |
Nuggets Notable Injuries
- Julian Strawther (SG/SF): Avg: 5.0pts, 1.3reb, 1.0ast, 12.2 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.8
- Jalen Pickett (PG): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.5reb, 0.8ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.3
- Jay Huff (C): Avg: 1.6pts, 0.8reb, 0.1ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.8
- Hunter Tyson (PF): Avg: 0.7pts, 0.8reb, 0.1ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.4
Heat Notable Injuries
- Kevin Love (C): Avg: 9.0pts, 6.2reb, 2.2ast, 17.4 minutes. Last game: 02/27/24. Impact: 3.3
- Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 3.8pts, 2.7reb, 0.6ast, 9.7 minutes. Last game: 03/07/24. Impact: 1.0
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
Jimmy Butler | MIA | Pts | 21.5 | 24.8 | +3.3 | 40% | 50% | 60% | 60% | DEN | +1.6 | #23 |
Terry Rozier | MIA | Pts | 15.5 | 17.8 | +2.3 | 40% | 50% | 47% | 47% | DEN | -2.3 | #3 |
Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | Reb | 6.5 | 7.4 | +0.9 | 60% | 70% | 53% | 53% | MIA | -0.1 | #14 |
Bam Adebayo | MIA | Reb | 9.5 | 10.4 | +0.9 | 20% | 30% | 40% | 40% | DEN | -1.5 | #8 |
Nikola Jokic | DEN | Ast | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | 40% | 60% | 47% | 47% | MIA | -0.8 | #8 |
Nikola Jovic | MIA | Ast | 1.5 | 2.1 | +0.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 40% | DEN | +0.5 | #22 |
Nuggets Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #16 | #8 | #16 | #14 | -4.1% |
PF | #16 | #20 | #24 | #17 | 1.0% |
PG | #12 | #9 | #22 | #9 | -7.0% |
SF | #23 | #20 | #22 | #23 | 7.0% |
SG | #3 | #4 | #10 | #4 | -9.4% |
Heat Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #1 | #6 | #8 | #1 | -33.0% |
PF | #9 | #16 | #16 | #11 | -3.4% |
PG | #10 | #12 | #5 | #3 | -14.1% |
SF | #26 | #14 | #20 | #21 | 6.9% |
SG | #12 | #18 | #17 | #14 | -0.9% |
Team Comparison
Recent Trends
- Nikola Jokic (C) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 35.0 pts, 17.0 reb, 12.0 ast against TOR
- Bam Adebayo (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.0% to 24.5, 35.0 min average previous 3 games.
- Reggie Jackson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.0% to 11.6, 18.8 min average previous 3 games.
- Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.3% to 21.2, 35.5 min average previous 3 games.
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