15 games, ranked by how run-friendly the park and today's weather are
How to read this: every game starts from its park's season scoring rate
(+17% park means 17% more runs score there than in an average park), then today's
weather moves it: heat and wind blowing out add runs, wind blowing in and rain take them away.
The big number is the sum: how much higher or lower than average scoring the conditions point to.
1
Tampa Bay Rays at AthleticsSutter Health Park · 21:40 ET
+51%runs vs avg
Park+51%SkyForecast pending
Away starter · faces Athletics batsNick Martinez 2.65 ERA · shove job5.1 K/9 · 1.10 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 battersBullpen behind him: 3.74 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 batters
Home starter · faces Tampa Bay Rays batsMason Barnett 5.56 ERA · hittable9.5 K/9 · 1.38 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 18 battersBullpen behind him: 5.31 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 28 batters
2
Chicago Cubs at Washington NationalsNationals Park · 18:45 ET
+14%runs vs avg · O/U 9
Park+11%Temp81°F+2.6%
Away starter · faces Washington Nationals batsShota Imanaga 3.66 ERA · solid8.5 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 23 battersBullpen behind him: 4.01 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 29 batters
Home starter · faces Chicago Cubs batsJake Irvin 5.37 ERA · hittable9.0 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 26 battersBullpen behind him: 4.54 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 31 batters
3
New York Mets at Atlanta BravesTruist Park · 19:15 ET
+8%runs vs avg
Park+5%Wind5 mph out to LF+2.7%
Away starter · faces Atlanta Braves batsNolan McLean 3.51 ERA · solid10.7 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 4.46 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces New York Mets batsMartin Perez 3.14 ERA · shove job7.0 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 3.35 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 35 batters
4
Colorado Rockies at Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field · 21:40 ET
+4%runs vs avg · O/U 9.5
Park+4%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Arizona Diamondbacks batsTomoyuki Sugano 4.51 ERA · league average5.1 K/9 · 1.26 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 21 battersBullpen behind him: 5.96 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 batters
Home starter · faces Colorado Rockies batsMitch Bratt 3.90 ERA · solid6.8 K/9 · 1.52 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 29 battersBullpen behind him: 3.69 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
5
Seattle Mariners at New York YankeesYankee Stadium · 19:05 ET
0%runs vs avg · O/U 8
Park+13%Wind7 mph in from LF-3.7%Temp81°F+2.8%Rain0.1 in forecast-12%
Away starter · faces New York Yankees batsBryan Woo 4.31 ERA · league average9.0 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 42 battersBullpen behind him: 3.46 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 33 batters
Home starter · faces Seattle Mariners batsRyan Weathers 3.79 ERA · solid9.8 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 battersBullpen behind him: 3.13 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 41 batters
6
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue JaysRogers Centre · 19:07 ET
0%runs vs avg · O/U 6.5
ParkaverageRoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Toronto Blue Jays batsPatrick Sandoval 3.38 ERA · solid9.4 K/9 · 1.67 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 battersBullpen behind him: 3.18 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 44 batters
Home starter · faces Boston Red Sox batsDylan Cease 2.28 ERA · shove job13.1 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 77 battersBullpen behind him: 4.01 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
7
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit TigersComerica Park · 18:40 ET
-1%runs vs avg
Park-3%Temp77°F+1.8%
Away starter · faces Detroit Tigers batsTanner Bibee 3.85 ERA · solid7.2 K/9 · 1.13 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 26 battersBullpen behind him: 3.41 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
Home starter · faces Cleveland Guardians batsDrew Anderson 4.01 ERA · league average10.4 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 battersBullpen behind him: 3.38 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 batters
8
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles DodgersDodger Stadium · 22:10 ET
-2%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Park-7%Wind10 mph out to CF+4.8%
Away starter · faces Los Angeles Dodgers batsMichael Wacha 3.44 ERA · solid7.0 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 battersBullpen behind him: 4.84 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces Kansas City Royals batsBlake Snell 12.00 ERA · hittable15.0 K/9 · 2.67 WHIP · no HR rate on fileBullpen behind him: 3.87 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 batters
9
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis CardinalsBusch Stadium · 19:45 ET
-5%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-13%Wind8 mph out to CF+4.1%Temp88°F+4.4%
Away starter · faces St. Louis Cardinals batsCristopher Sanchez 2.71 ERA · shove job10.5 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 50 battersBullpen behind him: 4.19 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 31 batters
Home starter · faces Philadelphia Phillies batsAndre Pallante 3.63 ERA · solid6.5 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 53 battersBullpen behind him: 4.10 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 35 batters
10
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White SoxRate Field · 19:40 ET
-6%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-8%Temp79°F+2.2%
Away starter · faces Chicago White Sox batsChase Burns 2.61 ERA · shove job10.4 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 42 battersBullpen behind him: 4.08 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 31 batters
Home starter · faces Cincinnati Reds batsSean Burke 3.08 ERA · shove job10.1 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 4.14 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 39 batters
11
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota TwinsTarget Field · 19:40 ET
-9%runs vs avg · O/U 9
Park-12%Temp82°F+3.1%
Away starter · faces Minnesota Twins batsBrandon Young 3.43 ERA · solid7.4 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.23 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 batters
Home starter · faces Baltimore Orioles batsBailey Ober 4.45 ERA · league average6.1 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 29 battersBullpen behind him: 4.13 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
12
Houston Astros at San Francisco GiantsOracle Park · 21:45 ET
-13%runs vs avg · O/U 8
Park-6%Wind13 mph in from RF-6.7%
Away starter · faces San Francisco Giants batsHunter Brown 3.53 ERA · solid9.7 K/9 · 1.24 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 battersBullpen behind him: 4.26 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 29 batters
Home starter · faces Houston Astros batsCarson Whisenhunt 7.25 ERA · hittable8.1 K/9 · 1.84 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 24 battersBullpen behind him: 4.08 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 47 batters
13
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami MarlinsLoanDepot Park · 18:40 ET
-13%runs vs avg
Park-13%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Miami Marlins batsPaul Skenes 3.96 ERA · solid11.2 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 3.99 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces Pittsburgh Pirates batsEury Perez 3.61 ERA · solid9.9 K/9 · 1.13 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 battersBullpen behind him: 4.16 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
14
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego PadresPetco Park · 21:40 ET
-17%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-17%
Away starter · faces San Diego Padres batsJacob Misiorowski 1.76 ERA · shove job13.8 K/9 · 0.74 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 3.51 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 batters
Home starter · faces Milwaukee Brewers batsWalker Buehler 5.07 ERA · hittable7.9 K/9 · 1.46 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 33 battersBullpen behind him: 3.70 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
15
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles AngelsAngel Stadium · 21:38 ET
-20%runs vs avg · O/U 9
Park-19%Wind10 mph in from RF-4.8%Temp86°F+4%
Away starter · faces Los Angeles Angels batsCody Bradford 0.00 ERA · shove job10.4 K/9 · 1.62 WHIP · no HR rate on fileBullpen behind him: 4.32 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces Texas Rangers batsRyan Johnson 7.11 ERA · hittable6.8 K/9 · 1.60 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 17 battersBullpen behind him: 4.17 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
Park percentages come from this season's real final scores (runs per game at
the park vs the same teams on the road). Weather adjustments: wind aligned with the park's orientation
(up to ±10), temperature vs a 70°F baseline, and a rain penalty when precipitation is forecast.
Domes and closed roofs are weather-neutral. O/U is the sportsbook total for the game, as a market
reality check. Pitcher and bullpen numbers are season stats from the props feed; HR rates are per
batter faced.
0
National TV Games
4
High Scoring (O/U 9.0+)
5
Division Games
Tuesday, August 11
15 games
FINALDetroit SportsNet
Cleveland
Guardians
58-61
4
at
Detroit
Tigers
58-60
6
Temp77.2°FClear
Wind2.9 mph out to RFwind boosts HR
Humidity78%humid, lighter air, slight carry
FINALSportsNet Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pirates
58-62
0
at
Miami
Marlins
60-59
2
RoofIndoor StadiumClimate Controlled
FINALMarquee Sports Network
Chicago
Cubs
69-50
RL
-1.5
ML
-178
8
at
Washington
Nationals
59-61
RL
+1.5
ML
+162
6
Temp80.5°FCloudy
Wind2.5 mph in from LFwind suppresses HR
Humidity54%moderate
FINALMariners.TV
Seattle
Mariners
56-63
RL
-1.5
ML
+116
1
at
New York
Yankees
66-52
RL
+1.5
ML
-126
4
Temp81.1°FClear
Wind7.4 mph in from LFwind suppresses HR
Humidity70%humid, lighter air, slight carry
Rain 0.10" — delay risk, wet ball
FINALNESN
Boston
Red Sox
64-54
RL
-1.5
ML
+120
3
at
Toronto
Blue Jays
57-63
RL
+1.5
ML
-130
5
RoofIndoor StadiumClimate Controlled
FINALSNY
New York
Mets
53-67
0
at
Atlanta
Braves
71-48
4
Temp72.8°FClear
Wind5.4 mph out to LFwind boosts HR
Humidity94%humid, lighter air, slight carry
FINALTwins.TV Presented by Progressive
Baltimore
Orioles
57-61
RL
-1.5
ML
+102
5
at
Minnesota
Twins
59-61
RL
+1.5
ML
-110
2
Temp82.4°FCloudy
Wind2.2 mph R to L cross
Humidity58%moderate
FINALReds.TV
Cincinnati
Reds
56-61
RL
-1.5
ML
+142
5
at
Chicago
White Sox
61-56
RL
+1.5
ML
-154
4
Temp78.9°FPartly cloudy
Wind2.2 mph R to L cross
Humidity74%humid, lighter air, slight carry
FINALNBCSP
Philadelphia
Phillies
64-56
RL
-1.5
ML
-154
0
at
St. Louis
Cardinals
59-60
RL
+1.5
ML
+142
2
Temp87.7°FClear
Wind8.1 mph out to CFwind boosts HR
Humidity66%humid, lighter air, slight carry
LIVE · Top 9Rangers Sports Network
Texas
Rangers
59-59
RL
-1.5
ML
-146
2
at
Los Angeles
Angels
45-74
RL
+1.5
ML
+136
3
Temp85.9°FSunny
Wind9.6 mph in from RFwind suppresses HR
Humidity46%moderate
LIVE · Top 9DBACKS.TV
Colorado
Rockies
46-73
RL
-1.5
ML
+148
3
at
Arizona
Diamondbacks
64-56
RL
+1.5
ML
-160
2
RoofIndoor StadiumClimate Controlled
LIVE · Top 9NBCSCA
Tampa Bay
Rays
72-46
12
at
Athletics
47-72
2
LIVE · Bottom 8Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health
