15 games, ranked by how run-friendly the park and today's weather are
How to read this: every game starts from its park's season scoring rate
(+17% park means 17% more runs score there than in an average park), then today's
weather moves it: heat and wind blowing out add runs, wind blowing in and rain take them away.
The big number is the sum: how much higher or lower than average scoring the conditions point to.
1
Texas Rangers atAthletics Sutter Health Park · 4:05 PM ET
+50%runs vs avg
Park+50%SkyForecast pending
Away starter · faces Athletics batsCody Bradford 2.38 ERA · shove job4.8 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP · no HR rate on fileBullpen behind him: 4.23 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 batters
Home starter · faces Texas Rangers batsJacob Lopez 5.38 ERA · hittable8.2 K/9 · 1.55 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 25 battersBullpen behind him: 5.55 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 24 batters
2
Arizona Diamondbacks atAtlanta Braves Truist Park · 1:35 PM ET
+15%runs vs avg
Park+3%Wind9 mph out to CF+4.5%Temp100°F+7.5%
Away starter · faces Atlanta Braves batsBrandon Pfaadt 3.11 ERA · shove job5.9 K/9 · 1.13 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 50 battersBullpen behind him: 3.51 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 39 batters
Home starter · faces Arizona Diamondbacks batsBryce Elder 4.03 ERA · league average7.4 K/9 · 1.25 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 battersBullpen behind him: 3.23 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
3
San Diego Padres atCleveland Guardians Progressive Field · 1:40 PM ET
+15%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Park+9%Wind8 mph out to RF+4.1%Temp78°F+1.9%
Away starter · faces Cleveland Guardians batsCasey Mize 9.64 ERA · hittable6.8 K/9 · 2.04 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 20 battersBullpen behind him: 3.81 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces San Diego Padres batsTanner Bibee 3.99 ERA · solid7.1 K/9 · 1.13 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 battersBullpen behind him: 3.40 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
4
Washington Nationals atNew York Mets Citi Field · 1:40 PM ET
+10%runs vs avg
Park+3%Wind15 mph out to LF+7.4%
Away starter · faces New York Mets batsJake Irvin 5.79 ERA · hittable9.1 K/9 · 1.32 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 26 battersBullpen behind him: 4.35 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 batters
Home starter · faces Washington Nationals batsChristian Scott 3.45 ERA · solid11.3 K/9 · 1.30 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 48 battersBullpen behind him: 4.31 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 31 batters
5
Boston Red Sox atPittsburgh Pirates PNC Park · 1:35 PM ET
+8%runs vs avg
Park+14%Wind6 mph out to CF+3.3%Temp81°F+2.6%Rain0.12 in forecast-12%
Away starter · faces Pittsburgh Pirates batsPatrick Sandoval 3.30 ERA · solid8.7 K/9 · 1.70 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 3.24 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 44 batters
Home starter · faces Boston Red Sox batsLake Bachar 5.14 ERA · hittable9.0 K/9 · 1.00 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 10 battersBullpen behind him: 4.08 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
6
Chicago White Sox atDetroit Tigers Comerica Park · 1:40 PM ET
+5%runs vs avg
Park-3%Wind9 mph out to RF+4.6%Temp85°F+3.7%
Away starter · faces Detroit Tigers batsSean Burke 2.99 ERA · shove job10.1 K/9 · 1.08 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.10 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
Home starter · faces Chicago White Sox batsDrew Anderson 3.91 ERA · solid10.4 K/9 · 1.30 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 battersBullpen behind him: 3.47 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
7
Milwaukee Brewers atLos Angeles Dodgers Dodger Stadium · 4:10 PM ET
+2%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-8%Wind12 mph out to CF+6.2%Temp86°F+3.9%
Away starter · faces Los Angeles Dodgers batsLogan Henderson 2.88 ERA · shove job11.0 K/9 · 0.91 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 battersBullpen behind him: 3.60 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
Home starter · faces Milwaukee Brewers batsTarik Skubal 4.09 ERA · league average9.8 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 24 battersBullpen behind him: 3.84 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 31 batters
8
Miami Marlins atCincinnati Reds Great American Ball Park · 1:40 PM ET
+1%runs vs avg
Park-5%Temp93°F+5.8%
Away starter · faces Cincinnati Reds batsEury Perez 3.39 ERA · solid9.9 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.11 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
Home starter · faces Miami Marlins batsNick Lodolo 4.86 ERA · hittable7.4 K/9 · 1.44 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 24 battersBullpen behind him: 4.11 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
9
New York Yankees atToronto Blue Jays Rogers Centre · 1:37 PM ET
-1%runs vs avg
Park-1%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Toronto Blue Jays batsRyan Weathers 3.69 ERA · solid9.7 K/9 · 1.21 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 battersBullpen behind him: 3.13 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces New York Yankees batsDylan Cease 2.40 ERA · shove job13.1 K/9 · 1.07 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 63 battersBullpen behind him: 3.87 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 35 batters
10
Seattle Mariners atHouston Astros Daikin Park · 7:20 PM ET
-1%runs vs avg · O/U 8
Park-1%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Houston Astros batsBryan Woo 4.15 ERA · league average9.0 K/9 · 1.10 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 3.63 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces Seattle Mariners batsHunter Brown 3.68 ERA · solid9.5 K/9 · 1.27 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 battersBullpen behind him: 4.30 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 batters
11
St. Louis Cardinals atChicago Cubs Wrigley Field · 3:15 PM ET
-3%runs vs avg
Park-3%Wind6 mph in from RF-3.2%Temp81°F+2.9%
Away starter · faces Chicago Cubs batsHunter Dobbins 3.40 ERA · solid8.4 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 battersBullpen behind him: 3.96 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 batters
Home starter · faces St. Louis Cardinals batsClay Holmes 3.38 ERA · solid3.4 K/9 · 0.94 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 4.02 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 batters
12
Philadelphia Phillies atMinnesota Twins Target Field · 2:10 PM ET
-4%runs vs avg
Park-11%Wind8 mph out to CF+3.8%Temp85°F+3.6%
Away starter · faces Minnesota Twins batsAndrew Painter 6.27 ERA · hittable7.7 K/9 · 1.52 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 23 battersBullpen behind him: 3.69 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 35 batters
Home starter · faces Philadelphia Phillies batsDean Kremer 1.50 ERA · shove job6.8 K/9 · 0.58 WHIP · no HR rate on fileBullpen behind him: 4.33 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
13
Baltimore Orioles atTampa Bay Rays Tropicana Field · 12:15 PM ET
-6%runs vs avg
Park-6%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Tampa Bay Rays batsTrevor Rogers 4.21 ERA · league average7.7 K/9 · 1.25 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 4.19 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces Baltimore Orioles batsFreddy Peralta 9.31 ERA · hittable7.5 K/9 · 1.76 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 13 battersBullpen behind him: 3.53 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 31 batters
14
Colorado Rockies atSan Francisco Giants Oracle Park · 4:05 PM ET
-14%runs vs avg · O/U 8
Park-8%Wind11 mph in from CF-5.6%
Away starter · faces San Francisco Giants batsGabriel Hughes 5.61 ERA · hittable8.3 K/9 · 1.28 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 71 battersBullpen behind him: 5.66 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 26 batters
Home starter · faces Colorado Rockies batsBlade Tidwell 2.78 ERA · shove job7.5 K/9 · 1.10 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 100 battersBullpen behind him: 4.12 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 47 batters
15
Kansas City Royals atLos Angeles Angels Angel Stadium · 4:07 PM ET
-22%runs vs avg
Park-20%Wind12 mph in from RF-6%Temp85°F+3.9%
Away starter · faces Los Angeles Angels batsNoah Cameron 4.45 ERA · league average8.2 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 4.56 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces Kansas City Royals batsRyan Johnson 6.71 ERA · hittable7.0 K/9 · 1.56 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 17 battersBullpen behind him: 4.01 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 batters
Park percentages come from this season's real final scores (runs per game at
the park vs the same teams on the road). Weather adjustments: wind aligned with the park's orientation
(up to ±10), temperature vs a 70°F baseline, and a rain penalty when precipitation is forecast.
Domes and closed roofs are weather-neutral. O/U is the sportsbook total for the game, as a market
reality check. Pitcher and bullpen numbers are season stats from the props feed; HR rates are per
batter faced.
4
National TV Games
0
High Scoring (O/U 9.0+)
8
Division Games
Sunday, August 16
15 games
FINALPeacock/NBCSN
TV
Baltimore
Orioles
60-62
10
at
Tampa Bay
Rays
74-48
2
RoofIndoor StadiumClimate Controlled
FINALSportsNet Pittsburgh
Boston
Red Sox
66-57
3
at
Pittsburgh
Pirates
60-65
8
Temp80.6°FModerate or heavy rain in area with thunder
Texas Rangers 
Athletics 
Arizona Diamondbacks 
Atlanta Braves 
San Diego Padres 
Cleveland Guardians 
Washington Nationals 
New York Mets 
Boston Red Sox 
Pittsburgh Pirates 
Chicago White Sox 
Detroit Tigers 
Milwaukee Brewers 
Los Angeles Dodgers 
Miami Marlins 
Cincinnati Reds 
New York Yankees 
Toronto Blue Jays 
Seattle Mariners 
Houston Astros 
St. Louis Cardinals 
Chicago Cubs 
Philadelphia Phillies 
Minnesota Twins 
Colorado Rockies 
San Francisco Giants 
Kansas City Royals 
Los Angeles Angels 
