12 games, ranked by how run-friendly the park and today's weather are
How to read this: every game starts from its park's season scoring rate
(+17% park means 17% more runs score there than in an average park), then today's
weather moves it: heat and wind blowing out add runs, wind blowing in and rain take them away.
The big number is the sum: how much higher or lower than average scoring the conditions point to.
1
Boston Red Sox at AthleticsSutter Health Park · 21:40 ET
Park +57% runs
Forecast pending
+57%runs vs avg
Away starter · faces Athletics batsPayton Tolle 3.31 ERA · solid9.6 K/9 · 1.10 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 3.34 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 41 batters
Home starter · faces Boston Red Sox batsJack Perkins 6.75 ERA · hittable10.9 K/9 · 1.42 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 24 battersBullpen behind him: 5.56 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 23 batters
2
Atlanta Braves at New York MetsCiti Field · 19:10 ET
Park +12% runs
Wind 8 mph out to CF +4.2%
78°F +1.9%
+18%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Away starter · faces New York Mets batsMartin Perez 3.38 ERA · solid6.9 K/9 · 1.20 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 battersBullpen behind him: 3.44 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 batters
Home starter · faces Atlanta Braves batsZac Thornton 1.93 ERA · shove job6.6 K/9 · 0.86 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 100 battersBullpen behind him: 4.08 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 33 batters
3
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh PiratesPNC Park · 18:40 ET
Park +14% runs
83°F +3.2%
+17%runs vs avg · O/U 9.5
Away starter · faces Pittsburgh Pirates batsMerrill Kelly 5.12 ERA · hittable5.6 K/9 · 1.48 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 20 battersBullpen behind him: 3.57 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 39 batters
Home starter · faces Arizona Diamondbacks batsMitch Keller 4.90 ERA · hittable6.9 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 battersBullpen behind him: 4.15 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 batters
4
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington NationalsNationals Park · 18:45 ET
Park +12% runs
Wind 5 mph in from RF -2.6%
81°F +2.7%
+12%runs vs avg · O/U 10.5
Away starter · faces Washington Nationals batsDylan Cease 2.46 ERA · shove job13.3 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 71 battersBullpen behind him: 3.70 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 batters
Home starter · faces Toronto Blue Jays batsAndrew Alvarez 4.22 ERA · league average9.3 K/9 · 1.48 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 111 battersBullpen behind him: 4.52 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 batters
5
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati RedsGreat American Ball Park · 19:10 ET
Park -3% runs
Wind 5 mph out to RF +2.7%
89°F +4.8%
+5%runs vs avg
Away starter · faces Cincinnati Reds batsSlade Cecconi 4.60 ERA · league average7.1 K/9 · 1.45 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 29 battersBullpen behind him: 3.43 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
Home starter · faces Cleveland Guardians batsChase Burns 2.42 ERA · shove job10.4 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.54 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 28 batters
6
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit TigersComerica Park · 18:40 ET
Park -6% runs
81°F +2.6%
-3%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Away starter · faces Detroit Tigers batsKyle Bradish 3.65 ERA · solid8.7 K/9 · 1.33 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 4.06 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 35 batters
Home starter · faces Baltimore Orioles batsKeider Montero 3.14 ERA · shove job6.6 K/9 · 0.95 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 3.65 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
7
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis CardinalsBusch Stadium · 19:45 ET
Park -17% runs
Wind 6 mph out to RF +3%
100°F +7.4%
-7%runs vs avg · O/U 9.5
Away starter · faces St. Louis Cardinals batsDavid Peterson 5.57 ERA · hittable4.7 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 battersBullpen behind him: 4.01 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 26 batters
Home starter · faces Chicago Cubs batsMatthew Liberatore 5.18 ERA · hittable8.6 K/9 · 1.52 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 24 battersBullpen behind him: 3.91 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 42 batters
8
Seattle Mariners at Texas RangersGlobe Life Field · 14:35 ET
Park -8% runs
Retractable roof: weather-neutral
-8%runs vs avg
Away starter · faces Texas Rangers batsGeorge Kirby 3.57 ERA · solid8.1 K/9 · 1.28 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 3.73 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
Home starter · faces Seattle Mariners batsKumar Rocker 4.12 ERA · league average8.1 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 battersBullpen behind him: 4.02 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 33 batters
9
New York Yankees at Chicago White SoxRate Field · 19:40 ET
Park -7% runs
Wind 13 mph out to CF +6.7%
Rain in forecast (0.12 in) -12%
-12%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Away starter · faces Chicago White Sox batsCam Schlittler 2.07 ERA · shove job10.8 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 48 battersBullpen behind him: 3.41 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
Home starter · faces New York Yankees batsNoah Schultz 6.04 ERA · hittable7.8 K/9 · 1.46 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 battersBullpen behind him: 3.73 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
10
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco GiantsOracle Park · 21:45 ET
Park -8% runs
Wind 15 mph in from CF -7.5%
-16%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Away starter · faces San Francisco Giants batsBrandon Sproat 5.09 ERA · hittable9.5 K/9 · 1.38 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 23 battersBullpen behind him: 3.24 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces Milwaukee Brewers batsTyler Mahle 5.31 ERA · hittable8.4 K/9 · 1.45 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 28 battersBullpen behind him: 3.90 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
11
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami MarlinsLoanDepot Park · 18:40 ET
Park -18% runs
Dome: weather-neutral
-18%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Away starter · faces Miami Marlins batsZack Wheeler 2.16 ERA · shove job10.5 K/9 · 0.88 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.25 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces Philadelphia Phillies batsTyler Phillips 3.52 ERA · solid6.6 K/9 · 1.39 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.38 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
12
Houston Astros at Los Angeles AngelsAngel Stadium · 21:38 ET
Park -19% runs
Wind 9 mph in from RF -4.7%
85°F +3.8%
-20%runs vs avg · O/U 8.5
Away starter · faces Los Angeles Angels batsTatsuya Imai 5.59 ERA · hittable11.0 K/9 · 1.47 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 28 battersBullpen behind him: 4.26 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 batters
Home starter · faces Houston Astros batsWalbert Urena 2.78 ERA · shove job8.6 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 77 battersBullpen behind him: 4.36 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 batters
Park percentages come from this season's real final scores (runs per game at
the park vs the same teams on the road). Weather adjustments: wind aligned with the park's orientation
(up to ±10), temperature vs a 70°F baseline, and a rain penalty when precipitation is forecast.
Domes and closed roofs are weather-neutral. O/U is the sportsbook total for the game, as a market
reality check. Pitcher and bullpen numbers are season stats from the props feed; HR rates are per
batter faced.
12
Total Games
0
National TV Games
3
High Scoring (O/U 9.0+)
5
Division Games
Monday, July 27
12 games
FINALRangers Sports Network
Seattle
Mariners
52-54
3
at
Texas
Rangers
52-52
7
Indoor Stadium • Climate Controlled
6:40 PM ETMASN
Baltimore
Orioles
51-54
RL
-1.5
ML
+106
at
Detroit
Tigers
50-56
RL
+1.5
ML
-124
80.6°F• Partly Cloudy• Wind: 4.5 mph out to LF wind boosts HR• Humidity: 72% humid, lighter air, slight carry
Pitchers
Away starter · faces Detroit Tigers batsKyle Bradish 3.65 ERA · solid8.7 K/9 · 1.33 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 4.06 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 35 batters
Home starter · faces Baltimore Orioles batsKeider Montero 3.14 ERA · shove job6.6 K/9 · 0.95 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 3.65 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
LIVE · Bottom 10SportsNet Pittsburgh
Arizona
Diamondbacks
55-51
RL
-1.5
ML
-102
2
at
Pittsburgh
Pirates
54-52
RL
+1.5
ML
-116
2
82.8°F• Sunny• Wind: 3.4 mph out to CF wind boosts HR• Humidity: 49% moderate
6:40 PM ETNBCSP
Philadelphia
Phillies
57-49
RL
-1.5
ML
-205
at
Miami
Marlins
52-54
RL
+1.5
ML
+172
Indoor Stadium • Climate Controlled
Pitchers
Away starter · faces Miami Marlins batsZack Wheeler 2.16 ERA · shove job10.5 K/9 · 0.88 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.25 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
Home starter · faces Philadelphia Phillies batsTyler Phillips 3.52 ERA · solid6.6 K/9 · 1.39 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 38 battersBullpen behind him: 4.38 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
6:45 PM ETSportsnet
Toronto
Blue Jays
48-58
RL
-1.5
ML
+106
at
Washington
Nationals
54-52
RL
+1.5
ML
-124
80.8°F• Patchy rain nearby• Wind: 5.1 mph in from RF wind suppresses HR• Humidity: 66% humid, lighter air, slight carry
Pitchers
Away starter · faces Washington Nationals batsDylan Cease 2.46 ERA · shove job13.3 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 71 battersBullpen behind him: 3.70 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 batters
Home starter · faces Toronto Blue Jays batsAndrew Alvarez 4.22 ERA · league average9.3 K/9 · 1.48 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 111 battersBullpen behind him: 4.52 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 batters
LIVE · ESPN/ESPN App
Cleveland
Guardians
54-53
0
at
Cincinnati
Reds
49-55
0
89.1°F• Sunny• Wind: 5.4 mph out to RF wind boosts HR• Humidity: 48% moderate
LIVE · Bottom 8SNY
Atlanta
Braves
62-43
RL
-1.5
ML
-104
3
at
New York
Mets
44-62
RL
+1.5
ML
-112
14
77.5°F• Sunny• Wind: 8.3 mph out to CF wind boosts HR• Humidity: 67% humid, lighter air, slight carry
Away starter · faces San Francisco Giants batsBrandon Sproat 5.09 ERA · hittable9.5 K/9 · 1.38 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 23 battersBullpen behind him: 3.24 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces Milwaukee Brewers batsTyler Mahle 5.31 ERA · hittable8.4 K/9 · 1.45 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 28 battersBullpen behind him: 3.90 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
