Back New York's Jonah Tong at home, as his strikeout stuff punishes a whiff-prone Baltimore lineup.
The Mets carry the better rate metrics on the mound against an offense that strikes out at nearly a top-three clip.
- Tong's 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP top Young's 3.65 and 1.37.
- Baltimore whiffs 9.34 times per game, third-most in baseball.
- De-vigged totals favor NYM 4.4 to BAL 4.1 runs.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals sit at BAL 4.1 and NYM 4.4, a narrow 0.3-run home lean that matches New York's -130 price. That gap is thin enough that the moneyline is close to fairly priced rather than a clear value. The 8.5 total mirrors the summed team totals almost exactly, leaving no obvious edge on the number.
Pitching Matchup
Tong owns the sharper ratios and a higher 8.57 K/9, though his 21.0-inning sample is tiny and his 3.86 BB/9 shows command can wobble. Young is the workhorse across 145.2 innings but his 1.37 WHIP and 8.99 H/9 point to plenty of traffic. The edge in raw stuff and swing-and-miss tilts to Tong.
Offense Comparison
Baltimore brings more power upside behind Henderson and its middle order but a .235 team average and heavy strikeout habit make it a boom-or-bust group against a high-K arm. New York's lineup, fronted by Soto and Lindor, ranks seventh in HR/game and makes slightly more contact, giving it steadier stack appeal. Neither offense is elite, so lineup shape matters more than volume tonight.
Weather & Park
First pitch is outdoor at 68F with a 7 mph wind blowing out to left, a positive nudge for fly-ball power at Citi Field. Rain chance is minimal at 8%, so no washout concern.
DFS Angles
Prefer a Mets stack around Soto, Lindor and Bichette, with the wind out to left rewarding their top-seven HR pop; Baltimore's Henderson and Mayo are viable secondary power pieces.
Tong is the pitcher to target given his 8.57 K/9 against a lineup that strikes out 9.34 times per game; Young is a riskier play with a 1.37 WHIP.
- Pete Alonso 10.8 proj · $5,300 · 2.0x
- Gunnar Henderson 10.2 proj · $4,800 · 2.1x
- Coby Mayo 8.6 proj · $4,000 · 2.2x
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand 8.5 proj · $4,300 · 2.0x
- Dylan Beavers 7.8 proj · $3,300 · 2.4x
- Juan Soto 11.4 proj · $6,100 · 1.9x
- Francisco Lindor 9.8 proj · $4,600 · 2.1x
- Bo Bichette 9.0 proj · $3,900 · 2.3x
- Carson Benge 8.7 proj · $4,000 · 2.2x
- Jared Young 7.2 proj · $2,900 · 2.5x
Players to Watch
- Juan Soto - over hits/HR interest - top projection at 11.4 fpts with 0.37 HR in a wind-out park.
- Bo Bichette - hits lean - team-high 1.37 projected hits at just $3900.
- Gunnar Henderson - hits lean - 1.32 projected hits leading Baltimore's bats.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand - RBI lean - 0.88 projected RBI from the six-hole.
- Jonah Tong - tiny 21.0-inning sample means command could swing the game.
- Juan Soto - best fpts projection and the biggest ceiling in either lineup.
- Coby Mayo - 2.16x value at $4000 with real 0.27 HR power.
- Jared Young - cheap $2900 punt at 2.47x if the lineup holds.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: BAL 1 – NYM 0
Baltimore leads the season series 1-0.
Today's MLB Slate
LAD @ CIN
ATH @ TB
CWS @ CLE
MIL @ PIT
PHI @ WAS
DET @ TOR
BAL @ NYM
ATL @ CHC
NYY @ MIN
SF @ STL
BOS @ TEX
KC @ HOU
SD @ COL
SEA @ LAA
MIA @ ARI
