10 games, ranked by how run-friendly the park and today's weather are
How to read this: every game starts from its park's season scoring rate
(+17% park means 17% more runs score there than in an average park), then today's
weather moves it: heat and wind blowing out add runs, wind blowing in and rain take them away.
The big number is the sum: how much higher or lower than average scoring the conditions point to.
1
Minnesota Twins atAthletics Sutter Health Park · 9:40 PM ET
+46%runs vs avg
Park+46%SkyForecast pending
Away starter · faces Athletics batsZebby Matthews 5.12 ERA · hittable7.5 K/9 · 1.33 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 22 battersBullpen behind him: 4.25 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
Home starter · faces Minnesota Twins batsJeffrey Springs 6.02 ERA · hittable7.1 K/9 · 1.48 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 17 battersBullpen behind him: 5.38 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 28 batters
2
Colorado Rockies atWashington Nationals Nationals Park · 6:45 PM ET
+21%runs vs avg · O/U 8
Park+18%Wind6 mph out to CF+3%
Away starter · faces Washington Nationals batsRyan Feltner 5.97 ERA · hittable6.3 K/9 · 1.52 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 21 battersBullpen behind him: 5.50 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 batters
Home starter · faces Colorado Rockies batsCade Cavalli 3.22 ERA · solid10.2 K/9 · 1.22 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 4.98 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 batters
3
Chicago Cubs atArizona Diamondbacks Chase Field · 9:40 PM ET
+3%runs vs avg · O/U 9
Park+3%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Arizona Diamondbacks batsKevin Gausman 6.19 ERA · hittable9.0 K/9 · 1.38 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 23 battersBullpen behind him: 3.94 ERA · HR-prone: about 1 every 27 batters
Home starter · faces Chicago Cubs batsMerrill Kelly 5.37 ERA · hittable5.9 K/9 · 1.52 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 21 battersBullpen behind him: 3.17 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 44 batters
4
Tampa Bay Rays atDetroit Tigers Comerica Park · 6:40 PM ET
-2%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-2%
Away starter · faces Detroit Tigers batsDrew Rasmussen 3.01 ERA · shove job9.3 K/9 · 0.94 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 43 battersBullpen behind him: 3.78 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 batters
Home starter · faces Tampa Bay Rays batsFramber Valdez 4.35 ERA · league average7.2 K/9 · 1.40 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 3.45 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
5
Texas Rangers atChicago White Sox Rate Field · 7:40 PM ET
-11%runs vs avg · O/U 8
Park-8%Wind6 mph in from CF-3.2%
Away starter · faces Chicago White Sox batsKumar Rocker 4.46 ERA · league average8.1 K/9 · 1.40 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 battersBullpen behind him: 4.05 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
Home starter · faces Texas Rangers batsJose Urquidy 2.79 ERA · shove job10.2 K/9 · 0.72 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 battersBullpen behind him: 3.92 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 36 batters
6
Cincinnati Reds atSan Francisco Giants Oracle Park · 9:45 PM ET
-11%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-4%Wind14 mph in from CF-7.3%
Away starter · faces San Francisco Giants batsChase Burns 2.51 ERA · shove job10.5 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 4.44 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 29 batters
Home starter · faces Cincinnati Reds batsCarson Whisenhunt 7.03 ERA · hittable6.5 K/9 · 1.84 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 28 battersBullpen behind him: 4.17 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 48 batters
7
Pittsburgh Pirates atSan Diego Padres Petco Park · 9:40 PM ET
-13%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-13%Wind6 mph in from CF-3.2%Temp83°F+3.3%
Away starter · faces San Diego Padres batsBraxton Ashcraft 3.74 ERA · solid9.6 K/9 · 1.08 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 30 battersBullpen behind him: 4.02 ERA · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 batters
Home starter · faces Pittsburgh Pirates batsRobbie Ray 4.20 ERA · league average6.0 K/9 · 1.53 WHIP · HR-prone: about 1 every 21 battersBullpen behind him: 3.76 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 40 batters
8
Boston Red Sox atMiami Marlins LoanDepot Park · 6:40 PM ET
-13%runs vs avg · O/U 7
Park-13%RoofDome, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Miami Marlins batsRanger Suarez 3.41 ERA · solid9.0 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 71 battersBullpen behind him: 3.23 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 41 batters
Home starter · faces Boston Red Sox batsSandy Alcantara 3.52 ERA · solid6.7 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 42 battersBullpen behind him: 4.06 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 37 batters
9
Philadelphia Phillies atSeattle Mariners T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET
-14%runs vs avg · O/U 6.5
Park-14%RoofRetractable roof, weather-neutral
Away starter · faces Seattle Mariners batsZack Wheeler 2.92 ERA · shove job10.8 K/9 · 1.01 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 battersBullpen behind him: 4.06 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 33 batters
Home starter · faces Philadelphia Phillies batsLogan Gilbert 3.35 ERA · solid9.4 K/9 · 1.01 WHIP · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 battersBullpen behind him: 4.04 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 32 batters
10
Cleveland Guardians atLos Angeles Angels Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET
-19%runs vs avg · O/U 7.5
Park-19%Wind11 mph in from RF-5.6%Temp91°F+5.2%
Away starter · faces Los Angeles Angels batsParker Messick 2.54 ERA · shove job9.2 K/9 · 1.03 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 3.57 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 34 batters
Home starter · faces Cleveland Guardians batsGeorge Klassen 3.74 ERA · solid8.7 K/9 · 1.62 WHIP · keeps it in the park: about 1 HR every 45 battersBullpen behind him: 4.16 ERA · average HR rate: about 1 every 33 batters
Park percentages come from this season's real final scores (runs per game at
the park vs the same teams on the road). Weather adjustments: wind aligned with the park's orientation
(up to ±10), temperature vs a 70°F baseline, and a rain penalty when precipitation is forecast.
Domes and closed roofs are weather-neutral. O/U is the sportsbook total for the game, as a market
reality check. Pitcher and bullpen numbers are season stats from the props feed; HR rates are per
batter faced.
2
National TV Games
1
High Scoring (O/U 9.0+)
0
Division Games
Monday, August 24
10 games
FINALDetroit SportsNet
Tampa Bay
Rays
77-53
RL
-1.5
ML
-126
4
at
Detroit
Tigers
61-69
RL
+1.5
ML
+116
1
Temp73.2°FPartly Cloudy
Wind2.7 mph out to RFwind boosts HR
Humidity42%moderate
FINALNESN
Boston
Red Sox
71-59
RL
-1.5
ML
-124
4
at
Miami
Marlins
67-64
RL
+1.5
ML
+114
2
RoofIndoor StadiumClimate Controlled
FINALRockies.TV
Colorado
Rockies
50-80
RL
-1.5
ML
+170
3
at
Washington
Nationals
61-71
RL
+1.5
ML
-184
13
Temp75.6°FClear
Wind6 mph out to CFwind boosts HR
Humidity38%moderate
FINALChicago Sports Network
Texas
Rangers
64-66
RL
-1.5
ML
+118
11
at
Chicago
White Sox
68-62
RL
+1.5
ML
-126
2
Temp74.3°FSunny
Wind6.3 mph in from CFwind suppresses HR
Humidity58%moderate
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