Celtics vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and cool down your nerves, sports fans, because the NBA playoffs are bringing the sizzle back to the hardwood! Tonight, the high-flying Boston Celtics, boasting a stellar 37-win season, are set to clash with the ever-unpredictable Miami Heat at the buzzing Kaseya Center. With the tipoff slated for 08:30 PM EST, the stakes are sky-high as both teams, neck-and-neck in the Eastern conference, look to tip the scales in their favor. The Celtics, fresh off a dominating win against the Knicks, are looking to carry that momentum, while the Heat, still feeling the sting from their recent tumble against the Nets, are hungry for redemption. With the over/under teasing a score fest at 219 points, this matchup promises more twists and turns than a South Beach rollercoaster. So, buckle up as the Celtics try to cool the Heat in what’s sure to be a blazing battle on the court!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: February 10, 2025 08:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	BOS ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-220	+180	219.0	-5.5/5.5
Recent	-225	+185	219.0	-6.0/6.0
Difference	-5	+5	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

44W-18L

69.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

32W-28L

30.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
12/02/24	Miami Heat MIA	25	20	18	26	00	89	Under
12/02/24	Boston Celtics BOS	28	32	25	23	00	108	Under
02/11/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	33	27	24	00	110	Under
02/11/24	Miami Heat MIA	22	28	29	27	00	106	Under
01/25/24	Boston Celtics BOS	42	35	36	30	00	143	Over
01/25/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	35	26	20	00	110	Over
10/27/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	27	33	23	00	111	Over
10/27/23	Boston Celtics BOS	25	35	27	32	00	119	Over
01/24/23	Boston Celtics BOS	30	28	24	13	00	95	Under
01/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	18	25	23	00	98	Under
12/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	32	22	29	100	120	Over
12/02/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	35	25	23	60	116	Over
11/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	35	25	36	25	00	121	Over
11/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	38	30	34	32	00	134	Over
10/21/22	Boston Celtics BOS	30	29	30	22	00	111	Under
10/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	22	29	26	27	00	104	Under
03/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	28	26	27	00	106	Under
03/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	29	23	31	15	00	98	Under
01/31/22	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	25	22	00	92	Under
01/31/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	27	40	28	00	122	Under
11/04/21	Boston Celtics BOS	18	33	24	20	00	95	Under
11/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	9	24	21	00	78	Under

Celtics Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Celtics Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/08	vs NYK	131-104W	48	21	10	85
02/06	@ DAL	120-127L	40	30	14	89
02/04	vs CLE	112-105W	53	26	12	98
02/02	vs PHI	118-110W	38	34	9	84
01/31	vs NOP	118-116W	35	32	13	84
01/29	@ CHI	122-100W	45	32	8	87
01/27	@ HOU	112-114L	41	21	14	80
01/23	vs LAL	96-117L	42	23	7	91
01/22	vs LAC	117-113W	32	24	19	90
01/20	vs GSW	125-85W	50	33	9	92

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/07	vs BRO	86-102L	39	23	14	90
02/05	vs PHI	108-101W	54	25	22	83
02/04	vs CHI	124-133L	44	29	13	90
02/01	vs SAS	105-103W	52	30	13	89
01/29	@ CLE	106-126L	35	27	12	83
01/27	@ ORL	125-119W	43	34	16	92
01/23	vs MIL	96-125L	50	26	10	92
01/21	@ POR	107-116L	45	26	8	93
01/19	@ SAS	128-107W	49	35	11	95
01/17	@ DEN	113-133L	41	30	8	91

Starting Lineups

Boston Celtics	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jaylen Brown SG	42.0	37.2	38.3	100%	38.6
Al Horford PF	18.0	16.1	20.0	60%	23.5
Kristaps Porzingis C	39.0	43.4	35.4	100%	35.8
Jayson Tatum SF	50.0	49.8	48.9	100%	49.2
Derrick White PG	30.0	31.6	30.3	100%	30.6

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo PF	42.0	42.9	38.5	100%	38.9
Tyler Herro PG	44.0	39.6	41.5	100%	41.8
Duncan Robinson SG	14.0	12.3	19.2	77%	20.8
Kel’el Ware C	28.0	26.4	20.5	27%	31.7
Andrew Wiggins SF	34.0	34.8	31.4	100%	31.8

Celtics Notable Injuries

Jrue Holiday (PG/SG): Avg: 11.9pts, 5.0reb, 4.4ast, 32.6 minutes. Last game: 02/04/25. Impact: 3.5
Drew Peterson (SF/PF): Avg: 3.1pts, 1.8reb, 0.7ast, 9.2 minutes. Last game: 02/06/25. Impact: 1.2
Jordan Walsh (SG/SF): Avg: 1.7pts, 1.3reb, 0.3ast, 7.4 minutes. Last game: 02/08/25. Impact: 0.7
Baylor Scheierman (SG/SF): Avg: 1.0pts, 1.2reb, 0.7ast, 5.6 minutes. Last game: 02/08/25. Impact: 0.7

Heat Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.7pts, 5.5reb, 1.8ast, 14.8 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 1.7
Alec Burks (PG): Avg: 9.6pts, 2.3reb, 1.2ast, 17.9 minutes. Last game: 02/04/25. Impact: 1.7
Davion Mitchell (PG/SG): Avg: 5.7pts, 1.5reb, 2.8ast, 18.6 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 2.7
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 0.9pts, 0.4reb, 0.6ast, 3.7 minutes. Last game: 01/29/25. Impact: 1.0

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Kel’el Ware	MIA	Pts	9.5	12.0	+2.5	40%	60%	47%	47%	BOS	-2.9	#3
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	18.6	+2.1	100%	60%	53%	53%	BOS	-2.3	#4
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Reb	4.5	5.0	+0.5	40%	30%	47%	47%	BOS	-0.1	#14
Tyler Herro	MIA	Reb	5.5	5.9	+0.4	40%	40%	53%	53%	BOS	+0.5	#25

View All Player Prop Projections

Celtics Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#11	#4	#1	-17.3%
PF	#4	#20	#13	#7	-5.5%
PG	#21	#22	#2	#4	-4.9%
SF	#12	#14	#4	#11	-3.6%
SG	#1	#25	#12	#4	-6.8%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#12	#27	#2	#10	-3.4%
PF	#10	#25	#28	#19	1.4%
PG	#7	#18	#26	#16	-0.1%
SF	#14	#26	#12	#17	2.5%
SG	#20	#5	#7	#14	-0.3%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

116.4

108.6

Rebounds per Game

45.3

44.0

Assists per Game

26.6

26.4

Steals per Game

7.5

7.0

Blocks per Game

5.9

4.0

Shots per Game

90.2

86.4

3-Pointers Made per Game

17.2

13.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

56.1

54.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.8

34.8

Turnovers per Game

11.3

13.4

Fouls per Game

16.3

15.1

Recent Trends

Alec Burks (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 45.6% to 17.4, 12.0 min average previous 3 games.
Luke Kornet (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 47.4% to 21.5, 14.6 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.9% to 20.1, 34.0 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.