Celtics vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Sat, Apr 27th 2024

Get ready to turn up the heat and cool down your nerves as the Boston Celtics, with a slight stumble out of the gate at 1W-1L, dash down to the Sunshine State to face the Miami Heat, who are balancing the scales at 2W-2L, in what promises to be a sizzling showdown at the Kaseya Center. With the playoffs heating up after a slew of lopsided games, tonight’s face-off at 06:00 PM EST is where the rubber meets the road. Both teams are coming off impressive wins, setting the stage for a high-stakes duel that could shift the balance in the Eastern Conference. The stakes are sky-high with the betting lines buzzing, as the Celtics look to weave their magic and cover that -7.5 spread, while the Heat aim to keep the flame alive. Will the Celtics march in and cool the Heat’s fire, or will Miami turn up the temperature and boil Boston’s plans? It’s time to find out if the Heat can scorch the nets or if the Celtics will frost the competition!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 27, 2024 06:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	BOS ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-430	+320	202.5	-7.5/7.5
Recent	-320	+260	205.0	-9.5/9.5
Difference	+110	-60	+2.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

26W-14L

76.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

21W-19L

23.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
04/24/24	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	27	26	00	111	Over
04/24/24	Boston Celtics BOS	27	34	18	22	00	101	Over
04/21/24	Miami Heat MIA	21	24	14	35	00	94	Over
04/21/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	34	31	23	00	114	Over
02/11/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	33	27	24	00	110	Over
02/11/24	Miami Heat MIA	22	28	29	27	00	106	Over
01/25/24	Boston Celtics BOS	42	35	36	30	00	143	Over
01/25/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	35	26	20	00	110	Over
10/27/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	27	33	23	00	111	Over
10/27/23	Boston Celtics BOS	25	35	27	32	00	119	Over
01/24/23	Boston Celtics BOS	30	28	24	13	00	95	Under
01/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	18	25	23	00	98	Under
12/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	32	22	29	100	120	Over
12/02/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	35	25	23	60	116	Over
11/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	35	25	36	25	00	121	Over
11/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	38	30	34	32	00	134	Over
10/21/22	Boston Celtics BOS	30	29	30	22	00	111	Over
10/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	22	29	26	27	00	104	Over
03/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	28	26	27	00	106	Under
03/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	29	23	31	15	00	98	Under
01/31/22	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	25	22	00	92	Over
01/31/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	27	40	28	00	122	Over
11/04/21	Boston Celtics BOS	18	33	24	20	00	95	Under
11/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	9	24	21	00	78	Under

Celtics Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Celtics Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ CHA	131-98W	53	34	6	104
04/11	@ NYK	109-118L	36	25	12	86
04/09	vs MIL	91-104L	38	27	12	93
04/07	@ POR	124-107W	40	34	12	87
04/05	@ SAC	101-100W	51	25	7	90
04/03	@ OKL	135-100W	46	33	10	92
04/01	vs CHA	118-104W	51	28	10	89
03/30	vs NOP	104-92W	51	27	12	82
03/28	vs ATL	122-123L	43	28	12	94
03/25	vs ATL	118-120L	38	21	7	95

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ TOR	125-103W	37	37	4	86
04/10	@ DAL	92-111L	46	22	15	81
04/09	vs ATL	117-111W	46	29	18	88
04/07	vs IND	115-117L	39	21	7	84
04/05	vs HOU	119-96W	48	27	9	81
04/04	@ PHI	105-109L	51	24	15	94
04/02	@ NYK	109-99W	39	24	17	74
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92

Starting Lineups

Boston Celtics	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jaylen Brown SF	38.0	36.1	38.6	100%	39.0
Jrue Holiday PG	28.8	23.8	27.4	100%	27.8
Kristaps Porzingis C	39.4	35.8	38.6	100%	38.9
Jayson Tatum PF	51.5	41.5	48.2	100%	48.6
Derrick White SG	32.2	24.8	33.2	100%	33.6

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	42.8	30.1	38.2	100%	38.6
Tyler Herro PG	41.9	38.3	34.3	90%	35.2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SG	26.9	22.8	20.2	23%	24.8
Nikola Jovic PF	19.1	29.4	18.3	90%	20.6
Caleb Martin SF	21.9	20.4	20.7	33%	20.4

Celtics Notable Injuries

Xavier Tillman (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 4.0reb, 1.5ast, 18.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.8
Neemias Queta (C): Avg: 4.7pts, 3.9reb, 0.6ast, 11.2 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 2.4
Drew Peterson (SF): Avg: 8.0pts, 0.0reb, 0.0ast, 12.0 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.8
Oshae Brissett (PF): Avg: 3.5pts, 2.9reb, 0.8ast, 11.2 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.7
Jaden Springer (SG/SF): Avg: 3.3pts, 1.6reb, 0.9ast, 10.2 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.3
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): Avg: 3.4pts, 1.2reb, 0.8ast, 9.4 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.6
JD Davison (PG): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.0reb, 1.3ast, 4.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.2
Jordan Walsh (SF): Avg: 1.8pts, 2.1reb, 0.5ast, 8.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.1

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF): Avg: 20.6pts, 5.2reb, 4.9ast, 33.6 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 5.8
Jamal Cain (SG): Avg: 3.9pts, 1.5reb, 0.4ast, 10.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.6
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.9ast, 7.8 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.6
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.5pts, 0.4reb, 0.3ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.5
Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Kristaps Porzingis	BOS	Pts	16.5	20.3	+3.8	40%	70%	80%	80%	MIA	-2.9	#7
Derrick White	BOS	Pts	11.5	14.4	+2.9	60%	70%	80%	80%	MIA	-2.1	#5
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	9.5	10.5	+1.0	20%	50%	60%	60%	BOS	-0.3	#11
Sam Hauser	BOS	Reb	1.5	2.3	+0.8	80%	90%	93%	93%	MIA	+2.8	#27
Jrue Holiday	BOS	Ast	3.5	4.5	+1.0	20%	50%	53%	53%	MIA	+0.4	#21
Jaylen Brown	BOS	Ast	2.5	3.3	+0.8	40%	50%	60%	60%	MIA	-3.7	#1

View All Player Prop Projections

Celtics Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#9	#11	#9	#6	-12.3%
PF	#2	#26	#13	#4	-9.0%
PG	#25	#7	#5	#16	-2.4%
SF	#18	#19	#12	#21	9.7%
SG	#19	#9	#11	#12	-4.3%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#1	#6	#2	-17.7%
PF	#9	#14	#6	#8	-6.2%
PG	#27	#8	#29	#26	28.9%
SF	#29	#27	#1	#22	11.7%
SG	#5	#19	#21	#8	-5.7%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

115.0

115.9

Rebounds per Game

45.4

43.6

Assists per Game

29.0

27.4

Steals per Game

7.9

7.8

Blocks per Game

6.1

3.6

Shots per Game

90.8

84.7

3-Pointers Made per Game

15.6

14.9

2-Pt Percentage per Game

58.8

55.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.6

40.0

Turnovers per Game

10.3

11.8

Fouls per Game

14.4

16.3

Recent Trends

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 86.9% to 32.9, 17.6 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 36.9% to 14.6, 23.2 min average previous 3 games.