Celtics vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready for some sizzling hardwood action as the Boston Celtics, just a whisper away from the top in the Eastern conference, jet down to the Sunshine State to face the Miami Heat at the vibrant Kaseya Center tonight at 07:30 PM EST. It’s a clash of titans in this first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, where both teams are looking to turn up the heat after a series of blowouts in earlier games. With the Celtics sharpening their leprechaun shoes on a recent triumph and the Heat fanning the flames following their fiery victory, the stakes are sky-high. The betting lines are buzzing with a 204.5 point over/under and a tantalizing spread, promising a game as hot as Miami’s nightlife. As both teams hit the court, it’s anyone’s guess whether the Celtics will weave their magic or the Heat will turn up the temperature in this coastal showdown!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 29, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	BOS ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-500	+360	203.5	-10.5/10.5
Recent	-525	+375	204.5	-10.5/10.5
Difference	-25	+15	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

26W-14L

84.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

21W-19L

16.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
04/27/24	Boston Celtics BOS	21	42	24	17	00	104	Under
04/27/24	Miami Heat MIA	12	27	22	23	00	84	Under
04/24/24	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	27	26	00	111	Over
04/24/24	Boston Celtics BOS	27	34	18	22	00	101	Over
04/21/24	Miami Heat MIA	21	24	14	35	00	94	Over
04/21/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	34	31	23	00	114	Over
02/11/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	33	27	24	00	110	Over
02/11/24	Miami Heat MIA	22	28	29	27	00	106	Over
01/25/24	Boston Celtics BOS	42	35	36	30	00	143	Over
01/25/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	35	26	20	00	110	Over
10/27/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	27	33	23	00	111	Over
10/27/23	Boston Celtics BOS	25	35	27	32	00	119	Over
01/24/23	Boston Celtics BOS	30	28	24	13	00	95	Under
01/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	18	25	23	00	98	Under
12/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	32	22	29	100	120	Over
12/02/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	35	25	23	60	116	Over
11/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	35	25	36	25	00	121	Over
11/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	38	30	34	32	00	134	Over
10/21/22	Boston Celtics BOS	30	29	30	22	00	111	Over
10/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	22	29	26	27	00	104	Over
03/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	28	26	27	00	106	Under
03/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	29	23	31	15	00	98	Under
01/31/22	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	25	22	00	92	Over
01/31/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	27	40	28	00	122	Over
11/04/21	Boston Celtics BOS	18	33	24	20	00	95	Under
11/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	9	24	21	00	78	Under

Celtics Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Celtics Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ CHA	131-98W	53	34	6	104
04/11	@ NYK	109-118L	36	25	12	86
04/09	vs MIL	91-104L	38	27	12	93
04/07	@ POR	124-107W	40	34	12	87
04/05	@ SAC	101-100W	51	25	7	90
04/03	@ OKL	135-100W	46	33	10	92
04/01	vs CHA	118-104W	51	28	10	89
03/30	vs NOP	104-92W	51	27	12	82
03/28	vs ATL	122-123L	43	28	12	94
03/25	vs ATL	118-120L	38	21	7	95

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ TOR	125-103W	37	37	4	86
04/10	@ DAL	92-111L	46	22	15	81
04/09	vs ATL	117-111W	46	29	18	88
04/07	vs IND	115-117L	39	21	7	84
04/05	vs HOU	119-96W	48	27	9	81
04/04	@ PHI	105-109L	51	24	15	94
04/02	@ NYK	109-99W	39	24	17	74
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92

Starting Lineups

Boston Celtics	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jaylen Brown SF	39.0	36.8	39.3	100%	39.7
Jrue Holiday PG	29.0	24.3	27.4	100%	27.9
Kristaps Porzingis C	38.4	34.0	38.8	100%	39.1
Jayson Tatum PF	53.3	44.9	47.9	100%	48.2
Derrick White SG	32.2	23.9	33.2	100%	33.6

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	42.4	30.1	37.7	100%	38.1
Tyler Herro PG	40.2	33.1	33.4	90%	34.3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SG	26.6	26.2	20.7	23%	26.9
Nikola Jovic PF	20.4	28.6	19.2	93%	21.0
Caleb Martin SF	21.1	19.6	20.1	33%	18.8

Celtics Notable Injuries

Oshae Brissett (PF): Avg: 3.4pts, 2.9reb, 0.8ast, 11.1 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 1.5
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): Avg: 3.3pts, 1.1reb, 0.7ast, 9.2 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 1.4

Heat Notable Injuries

Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 3.4reb, 0.6ast, 10.8 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 2.8
Patty Mills (PG/SG): Avg: 4.2pts, 1.1reb, 1.1ast, 13.1 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 2.0
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.9ast, 7.7 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 0.5

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jayson Tatum	BOS	Pts	25.5	29.0	+3.5	20%	20%	47%	47%	MIA	+13.2	#29
Kristaps Porzingis	BOS	Pts	16.5	19.8	+3.3	40%	70%	80%	80%	MIA	-3.1	#7
Tyler Herro	MIA	Reb	4.5	5.6	+1.1	40%	70%	60%	60%	BOS	-1.1	#3
Haywood Highsmith	MIA	Reb	3.5	3.7	+0.2	20%	60%	67%	67%	BOS	+0.4	#18
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Ast	1.5	2.1	+0.6	60%	40%	47%	47%	BOS	-1.1	#12
Al Horford	BOS	Ast	1.5	2.1	+0.6	40%	60%	67%	67%	MIA	-3.5	#1
Payton Pritchard	BOS	3Pt	0.5	1.6	+1.1	80%	80%	73%	73%	MIA	-0.4	#5

View All Player Prop Projections

Celtics Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#13	#11	#6	#6	-14.0%
PF	#2	#25	#21	#6	-8.1%
PG	#24	#13	#4	#17	-1.0%
SF	#18	#18	#12	#22	9.1%
SG	#7	#3	#7	#2	-11.8%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#2	#7	#3	-16.4%
PF	#16	#20	#8	#15	-1.5%
PG	#26	#8	#29	#26	29.3%
SF	#29	#29	#1	#26	19.8%
SG	#3	#14	#21	#7	-7.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

114.1

112.6

Rebounds per Game

45.8

43.5

Assists per Game

29.1

25.8

Steals per Game

8.0

6.6

Blocks per Game

6.1

3.5

Shots per Game

90.4

83.6

3-Pointers Made per Game

15.8

14.1

2-Pt Percentage per Game

59.6

54.2

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.3

38.2

Turnovers per Game

10.1

12.2

Fouls per Game

14.4

16.8

Recent Trends

Sam Hauser (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.9% to 16.3, 26.8 min average previous 3 games.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.3% to 33.4, 24.2 min average previous 3 games.
Luke Kornet (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 36.5% to 12.2, 19.3 min average previous 3 games.
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 57.5% to 16.0, 10.2 min average previous 3 games.