Celtics vs Heat Game Breakdown
Celtics
2W-1L
April 29, 2024
07:30PM EST
Odds: 204.5 o/u
Heat
2W-3L
Get ready for some sizzling hardwood action as the Boston Celtics, just a whisper away from the top in the Eastern conference, jet down to the Sunshine State to face the Miami Heat at the vibrant Kaseya Center tonight at 07:30 PM EST. It’s a clash of titans in this first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, where both teams are looking to turn up the heat after a series of blowouts in earlier games. With the Celtics sharpening their leprechaun shoes on a recent triumph and the Heat fanning the flames following their fiery victory, the stakes are sky-high. The betting lines are buzzing with a 204.5 point over/under and a tantalizing spread, promising a game as hot as Miami’s nightlife. As both teams hit the court, it’s anyone’s guess whether the Celtics will weave their magic or the Heat will turn up the temperature in this coastal showdown!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: April 29, 2024 07:30PM EST
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami
Vegas Odds
| BOS ML | MIA ML | Over/Under | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | -500 | +360 | 203.5 | -10.5/10.5 |
| Recent | -525 | +375 | 204.5 | -10.5/10.5 |
| Difference | -25 | +15 | +1.0 | – |
Team Performance
84.0% Win Probability
16.0% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
| Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/27/24 | Boston Celtics BOS | 21 | 42 | 24 | 17 | 00 | 104 | Under | |
| Miami Heat MIA | 12 | 27 | 22 | 23 | 00 | 84 | |||
| 04/24/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 00 | 111 | Over | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 27 | 34 | 18 | 22 | 00 | 101 | |||
| 04/21/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 21 | 24 | 14 | 35 | 00 | 94 | Over | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 26 | 34 | 31 | 23 | 00 | 114 | |||
| 02/11/24 | Boston Celtics BOS | 26 | 33 | 27 | 24 | 00 | 110 | Over | |
| Miami Heat MIA | 22 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 00 | 106 | |||
| 01/25/24 | Boston Celtics BOS | 42 | 35 | 36 | 30 | 00 | 143 | Over | |
| Miami Heat MIA | 29 | 35 | 26 | 20 | 00 | 110 | |||
| 10/27/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 27 | 33 | 23 | 00 | 111 | Over | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 25 | 35 | 27 | 32 | 00 | 119 | |||
| 01/24/23 | Boston Celtics BOS | 30 | 28 | 24 | 13 | 00 | 95 | Under | |
| Miami Heat MIA | 32 | 18 | 25 | 23 | 00 | 98 | |||
| 12/02/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 27 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 100 | 120 | Over | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 27 | 35 | 25 | 23 | 60 | 116 | |||
| 11/30/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 35 | 25 | 36 | 25 | 00 | 121 | Over | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 38 | 30 | 34 | 32 | 00 | 134 | |||
| 10/21/22 | Boston Celtics BOS | 30 | 29 | 30 | 22 | 00 | 111 | Over | |
| Miami Heat MIA | 22 | 29 | 26 | 27 | 00 | 104 | |||
| 03/30/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 25 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 00 | 106 | Under | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 29 | 23 | 31 | 15 | 00 | 98 | |||
| 01/31/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 14 | 31 | 25 | 22 | 00 | 92 | Over | |
| Boston Celtics BOS | 27 | 27 | 40 | 28 | 00 | 122 | |||
| 11/04/21 | Boston Celtics BOS | 18 | 33 | 24 | 20 | 00 | 95 | Under | |
| Miami Heat MIA | 24 | 9 | 24 | 21 | 00 | 78 |
Celtics Vs Over/Under
Heat Vs Over/Under
Celtics Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12 | @ CHA | 131-98W | 53 | 34 | 6 | 104 |
| 04/11 | @ NYK | 109-118L | 36 | 25 | 12 | 86 |
| 04/09 | vs MIL | 91-104L | 38 | 27 | 12 | 93 |
| 04/07 | @ POR | 124-107W | 40 | 34 | 12 | 87 |
| 04/05 | @ SAC | 101-100W | 51 | 25 | 7 | 90 |
| 04/03 | @ OKL | 135-100W | 46 | 33 | 10 | 92 |
| 04/01 | vs CHA | 118-104W | 51 | 28 | 10 | 89 |
| 03/30 | vs NOP | 104-92W | 51 | 27 | 12 | 82 |
| 03/28 | vs ATL | 122-123L | 43 | 28 | 12 | 94 |
| 03/25 | vs ATL | 118-120L | 38 | 21 | 7 | 95 |
Heat Recent Games
| Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12 | @ TOR | 125-103W | 37 | 37 | 4 | 86 |
| 04/10 | @ DAL | 92-111L | 46 | 22 | 15 | 81 |
| 04/09 | vs ATL | 117-111W | 46 | 29 | 18 | 88 |
| 04/07 | vs IND | 115-117L | 39 | 21 | 7 | 84 |
| 04/05 | vs HOU | 119-96W | 48 | 27 | 9 | 81 |
| 04/04 | @ PHI | 105-109L | 51 | 24 | 15 | 94 |
| 04/02 | @ NYK | 109-99W | 39 | 24 | 17 | 74 |
| 03/31 | vs WAS | 119-107W | 42 | 22 | 13 | 81 |
| 03/29 | @ POR | 142-82W | 44 | 41 | 8 | 93 |
| 03/26 | @ GSW | 92-113L | 39 | 24 | 8 | 92 |
Starting Lineups
| Boston Celtics | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jaylen Brown
SF
|
39.0 | 36.8 | 39.3 | 100% | 39.7 |
|
Jrue Holiday
PG
|
29.0 | 24.3 | 27.4 | 100% | 27.9 |
| 38.4 | 34.0 | 38.8 | 100% | 39.1 | |
|
Jayson Tatum
PF
|
53.3 | 44.9 | 47.9 | 100% | 48.2 |
| 32.2 | 23.9 | 33.2 | 100% | 33.6 |
| Miami Heat | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.4 | 30.1 | 37.7 | 100% | 38.1 | |
|
Tyler Herro
PG
|
40.2 | 33.1 | 33.4 | 90% | 34.3 |
| 26.6 | 26.2 | 20.7 | 23% | 26.9 | |
|
Nikola Jovic
PF
|
20.4 | 28.6 | 19.2 | 93% | 21.0 |
|
Caleb Martin
SF
|
21.1 | 19.6 | 20.1 | 33% | 18.8 |
Celtics Notable Injuries
- Oshae Brissett (PF): Avg: 3.4pts, 2.9reb, 0.8ast, 11.1 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 1.5
- Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): Avg: 3.3pts, 1.1reb, 0.7ast, 9.2 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 1.4
Heat Notable Injuries
- Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 3.4reb, 0.6ast, 10.8 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 2.8
- Patty Mills (PG/SG): Avg: 4.2pts, 1.1reb, 1.1ast, 13.1 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 2.0
- Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.9ast, 7.7 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 0.5
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
| Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
| Jayson Tatum | BOS | Pts | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | 20% | 20% | 47% | 47% | MIA | +13.2 | #29 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | BOS | Pts | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | 40% | 70% | 80% | 80% | MIA | -3.1 | #7 |
| Tyler Herro | MIA | Reb | 4.5 | 5.6 | +1.1 | 40% | 70% | 60% | 60% | BOS | -1.1 | #3 |
| Haywood Highsmith | MIA | Reb | 3.5 | 3.7 | +0.2 | 20% | 60% | 67% | 67% | BOS | +0.4 | #18 |
| Nikola Jovic | MIA | Ast | 1.5 | 2.1 | +0.6 | 60% | 40% | 47% | 47% | BOS | -1.1 | #12 |
| Al Horford | BOS | Ast | 1.5 | 2.1 | +0.6 | 40% | 60% | 67% | 67% | MIA | -3.5 | #1 |
| Payton Pritchard | BOS | 3Pt | 0.5 | 1.6 | +1.1 | 80% | 80% | 73% | 73% | MIA | -0.4 | #5 |
Celtics Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #13 | #11 | #6 | #6 | -14.0% |
| PF | #2 | #25 | #21 | #6 | -8.1% |
| PG | #24 | #13 | #4 | #17 | -1.0% |
| SF | #18 | #18 | #12 | #22 | 9.1% |
| SG | #7 | #3 | #7 | #2 | -11.8% |
Heat Defense vs
| Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | #7 | #2 | #7 | #3 | -16.4% |
| PF | #16 | #20 | #8 | #15 | -1.5% |
| PG | #26 | #8 | #29 | #26 | 29.3% |
| SF | #29 | #29 | #1 | #26 | 19.8% |
| SG | #3 | #14 | #21 | #7 | -7.0% |
Team Comparison
Recent Trends
- Sam Hauser (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.9% to 16.3, 26.8 min average previous 3 games.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.3% to 33.4, 24.2 min average previous 3 games.
- Luke Kornet (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 36.5% to 12.2, 19.3 min average previous 3 games.
- Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 57.5% to 16.0, 10.2 min average previous 3 games.
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