Cavaliers vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Mar 24th 2024

Alright, hoop-heads, buckle up for a sizzling showdown in South Beach! Our 42-win Cleveland Cavaliers are packing their bags and heading down to the Kaseya Center, set to lock horns with the Miami Heat, who are sitting pretty with 38 notches on their win column. The Cavs are breathing down the necks of the Eastern conference leaders, just three games behind, while the Heat are nipping at their heels, a mere half-game further back. As the clock strikes 6:00PM EST, the ball will be up in the air and the action will hit fever pitch. The bookies have crunched the numbers, setting the over/under at a tantalizing 203.5, with the Cavs getting a 4-point head start and the Heat favored to overcome a 4-point deficit. Both teams are looking to bounce back from recent stumbles; the Heat got a bit too close to the Pelicans and got singed, while the Cavs couldn’t quite tame the Timberwolves. So, as the Cavaliers try to bring the Heat down to a simmer and Miami looks to turn up the temperature on Cleveland, we’re all set for a game that promises to be hotter than a habanero in a heatwave!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 24, 2024 06:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	CLE ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+145	-170	203.0	4.0/-4.0
Recent	+150	-175	203.5	4.0/-4.0
Difference	+5	-5	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

20W-13L

40.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

17W-16L

60.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
12/08/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	17	36	35	23	111	Over
12/08/23	Miami Heat MIA	25	27	23	24	99	Over
03/20/24	Miami Heat MIA	31	30	22	24	107	Over
03/20/24	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	30	27	18	29	104	Over
11/22/23	Miami Heat MIA	37	32	32	28	129	Over
11/22/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	29	24	17	96	Over
03/10/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	33	30	26	115	Over
03/10/23	Miami Heat MIA	27	23	32	37	119	Over
03/08/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	31	30	17	104	Over
03/08/23	Miami Heat MIA	30	23	29	18	100	Over
01/31/23	Miami Heat MIA	24	31	24	21	100	Under
01/31/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	26	27	18	97	Under
11/20/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	15	22	23	87	Under
11/20/22	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	28	31	36	18	113	Under
03/11/22	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	18	39	15	33	105	Over
03/11/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	27	32	117	Over
12/13/21	Miami Heat MIA	25	19	29	21	94	Under
12/13/21	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	23	32	23	27	105	Under
12/01/21	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	31	30	26	24	111	Under
12/01/21	Miami Heat MIA	16	27	20	22	85	Under

Cavaliers Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Cavaliers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/22	vs MIN	91-104L	41	22	12	80
03/20	@ MIA	104-107L	37	30	11	75
03/18	vs IND	108-103W	39	27	14	80
03/16	vs HOU	103-117L	45	22	15	82
03/13	vs NOP	116-95W	46	38	9	92
03/11	@ PHX	111-117L	37	30	12	86
03/10	@ BRO	101-120L	31	25	12	76
03/08	@ MIN	113-104W	46	27	12	90
03/06	vs ATL	101-114L	42	27	13	89
03/05	@ BOS	105-104W	42	28	8	90

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/22	@ NOP	88-111L	34	22	4	87
03/20	vs CLE	107-104W	37	19	7	83
03/18	vs PHI	91-98L	49	23	15	89
03/17	vs DET	104-101W	47	24	9	89
03/15	vs DET	108-95W	44	23	8	93
03/13	@ DEN	88-100L	42	18	8	81
03/10	@ WAS	108-110L	51	20	13	96
03/08	vs OKL	100-107L	43	24	10	83
03/07	vs DAL	108-114L	37	30	10	82
03/05	@ DET	118-110W	42	27	9	85

Starting Lineups

Cleveland Cavaliers	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jarrett Allen C	42.0	38.2	37.3	100%	36.1
Darius Garland PG	34.8	36.5	31.9	100%	30.3
Caris LeVert SG	38.3	39.8	29.3	17%	40.4
Evan Mobley PF	30.7	41.7	36.1	100%	36.4
Isaac Okoro SF	20.7	16.1	19.4	57%	20.4

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	41.8	42.1	38.0	100%	37.5
Jimmy Butler SF	43.3	27.8	37.5	100%	36.2
Nikola Jovic PF	16.7	14.6	15.3	83%	17.4
Patty Mills SG	15.0	10.1	8.8	10%	15.7
Terry Rozier PG	33.8	32.4	30.8	93%	31.6

Cavaliers Notable Injuries

Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG): Avg: 27.4pts, 5.3reb, 6.1ast, 35.4 minutes. Last game: 03/16/24. Impact: 6.8
Damian Jones (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 7.1 minutes. Last game: 03/16/24. Impact: 1.9
Isaiah Mobley (C): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.8reb, 0.7ast, 6.9 minutes. Last game: 03/13/24. Impact: 1.1
Pete Nance (PF): Avg: 0.0pts, 0.3reb, 0.0ast, 2.5 minutes. Last game: 03/10/24. Impact: 0.1

Heat Notable Injuries

Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): Avg: 13.4pts, 2.5reb, 3.0ast, 28.1 minutes. Last game: 03/18/24. Impact: 4.2
Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.8pts, 1.8reb, 0.3ast, 12.8 minutes. Last game: 03/22/24. Impact: 1.4
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 3.2pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 6.1 minutes. Last game: 03/22/24. Impact: 0.8

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jarrett Allen	CLE	Pts	15.5	18.2	+2.7	60%	60%	60%	60%	MIA	-4.4	#2
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	17.5	19.2	+1.7	60%	50%	60%	60%	CLE	-2.3	#6
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Reb	5.5	6.0	+0.5	0%	30%	40%	40%	CLE	+1.3	#23
Isaac Okoro	CLE	Ast	1.5	2.1	+0.6	60%	60%	73%	73%	MIA	-0.7	#10

View All Player Prop Projections

Cavaliers Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#6	#22	#2	#8	-6.1%
PF	#23	#13	#11	#20	3.1%
PG	#9	#4	#10	#6	-12.1%
SF	#4	#23	#2	#3	-18.9%
SG	#17	#21	#19	#20	2.9%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#2	#28	#8	#2	-13.4%
PF	#5	#24	#7	#9	-4.4%
PG	#16	#20	#3	#9	-5.4%
SF	#28	#7	#10	#25	8.9%
SG	#13	#11	#17	#13	-2.3%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

107.2

105.1

Rebounds per Game

42.1

41.6

Assists per Game

28.9

24.0

Steals per Game

6.3

7.7

Blocks per Game

5.1

4.4

Shots per Game

84.6

85.4

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.4

11.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.0

51.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.1

35.7

Turnovers per Game

11.9

10.4

Fouls per Game

16.5

15.5

Recent Trends

Bam Adebayo (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 44.5% to 33.1, 22.9 min average previous 3 games.
Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.0% to 34.9, 26.1 min average previous 3 games.
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 39.8% to 17.8, 12.7 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 33.6% to 22.5, 16.8 min average previous 3 games.
Patty Mills (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 53.5% to 19.7, 12.8 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 44.2% to 30.9, 21.4 min average previous 3 games.
Max Strus (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 73.5% to 33.7, 19.4 min average previous 3 games.
Dean Wade (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 60.2% to 28.1, 17.5 min average previous 3 games.
Delon Wright (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.6% to 17.8, 13.6 min average previous 3 games.