Mavericks vs Rockets Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Mar 31st 2024

Fasten your seatbelts, sports fans! Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks, just half a game shy of the top spot in the West, are saddling up to face off against the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center. The Rockets, lagging behind by 6.5 games, are looking to blast off after their recent nail-biter against the Jazz. The Mavericks, fresh off their own close shave against the Kings, are ready to lasso victory from the jaws of the Rockets. The bookies have the over/under pegged at 230.5, with the Mavs tipped to edge it by 1.5 – but in this game, it’s anyone’s guess. So, will the Mavs rope in a win, or will the Rockets’ recent lift-off propel them to victory? Buckle up, it’s about to be a Texas-style showdown at 7PM EST. Remember folks, in this game of hoops, it’s not about the size of the rocket, it’s how you light the fuse!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 31, 2024 07:00PM EST

Location: Toyota Center, Houston

Vegas Odds

	DAL ML	HOU ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-120	+100	230.0	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-125	-105	230.5	-2.5/2.5
Difference	-5	-205	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

9W-1L

AWAY

21W-14L

55.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

10W-0L

HOME

25W-11L

44.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
12/22/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	17	22	21	36	96	Under
12/22/23	Houston Rockets HOU	23	33	33	33	122	Under
11/28/23	Houston Rockets HOU	22	28	38	27	115	Over
11/28/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	29	25	30	37	121	Over
01/02/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	18	26	39	28	111	Under
01/02/23	Houston Rockets HOU	26	29	32	19	106	Under
12/29/22	Houston Rockets HOU	30	21	28	35	114	Over
12/29/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	36	29	34	30	129	Over
12/23/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	30	31	20	31	112	Under
12/23/22	Houston Rockets HOU	24	26	34	22	106	Under
11/16/22	Houston Rockets HOU	31	26	19	25	101	Under
11/16/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	28	23	23	18	92	Under
03/23/22	Houston Rockets HOU	21	32	19	19	91	Under
03/23/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	25	27	30	28	110	Under
03/11/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	31	36	29	17	113	Under
03/11/22	Houston Rockets HOU	23	21	28	28	100	Under
01/07/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	43	37	30	20	130	Over
01/07/22	Houston Rockets HOU	23	37	26	20	106	Over
10/26/21	Houston Rockets HOU	31	29	28	18	106	Under
10/26/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	27	30	34	25	116	Under

Mavericks Vs Over/Under

Rockets Vs Over/Under

Mavericks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/29	vs SAC	107-103W	42	24	10	76
03/26	vs SAC	132-96W	49	34	9	92
03/25	vs UTA	115-105W	47	31	6	92
03/21	@ UTA	113-98W	43	33	13	87
03/19	vs SAS	113-107W	40	31	9	91
03/17	@ DEN	107-105W	60	22	11	100
03/14	vs OKL	119-126L	40	25	19	84
03/13	@ GSW	109-99W	42	30	16	82
03/11	vs CHI	127-92W	49	33	6	93
03/09	vs DET	142-128W	36	29	14	92

Rockets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/29	vs UTA	101-100W	45	19	10	91
03/27	vs OKL	132-126W	50	25	16	104
03/25	@ POR	110-92W	45	19	8	93
03/23	@ UTA	147-119W	44	31	9	97
03/21	@ CHI	127-117W	49	27	14	93
03/19	vs WAS	137-114W	47	25	7	91
03/16	@ CLE	117-103W	48	28	9	98
03/14	@ WAS	135-119W	47	24	17	87
03/12	vs SAS	103-103L	36	21	12	80
03/10	vs SAC	112-104W	42	23	12	85

Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luka Doncic SG	62.5	60.1	66.3	100%	66.7
Daniel Gafford C	31.6	32.8	29.1	70%	33.3
Kyrie Irving PG	43.9	40.8	44.4	100%	44.8
Derrick Jones Jr. SF	14.7	13.4	12.7	70%	14.6
PJ Washington PF	26.6	25.0	25.7	70%	24.0

Houston Rockets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Dillon Brooks PF	21.5	24.1	20.6	93%	21.3
Jalen Green SG	45.9	53.9	39.5	93%	40.1
Jabari Smith Jr. C	30.1	21.9	27.6	100%	27.4
Amen Thompson SF	39.7	37.2	29.2	47%	35.4
Fred VanVleet PG	42.6	41.2	36.5	93%	37.3

Mavericks Notable Injuries

Olivier-Maxence Prosper (SF/PF): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.8reb, 0.6ast, 7.6 minutes. Last game: 03/21/24. Impact: 0.6
Markieff Morris (PF/C): Avg: 2.7pts, 1.5reb, 0.6ast, 8.2 minutes. Last game: 03/26/24. Impact: 0.8

Rockets Notable Injuries

Boban Marjanovic (C): Avg: 2.3pts, 1.9reb, 0.3ast, 4.6 minutes. Last game: 03/23/24. Impact: 0.9
Nate Williams (PG): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.0reb, 0.4ast, 5.7 minutes. Last game: 03/25/24. Impact: 0.6

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
PJ Washington	DAL	Pts	10.5	12.6	+2.1	40%	30%	47%	47%	HOU	+6.7	#27
Dillon Brooks	HOU	Pts	10.5	12.3	+1.8	80%	60%	53%	53%	DAL	-0.8	#16
Jalen Green	HOU	Reb	5.5	6.8	+1.3	60%	60%	47%	47%	DAL	+0.7	#27
Jabari Smith Jr.	HOU	Reb	7.5	8.5	+1.0	20%	30%	33%	33%	DAL	-0.2	#14
Amen Thompson	HOU	Ast	3.5	3.9	+0.4	60%	40%	27%	27%	DAL	+1.2	#24
Derrick Jones Jr.	DAL	Ast	0.5	0.8	+0.3	60%	60%	67%	67%	HOU	-0.2	#15

View All Player Prop Projections

Mavericks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#6	#14	#29	#9	-3.2%
PF	#21	#5	#8	#14	-0.2%
PG	#24	#17	#26	#26	13.0%
SF	#16	#19	#24	#23	7.2%
SG	#13	#27	#10	#16	-0.1%

Rockets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#14	#23	#8	#21	3.7%
PF	#4	#18	#5	#5	-10.7%
PG	#3	#23	#29	#12	-6.1%
SF	#27	#29	#15	#30	22.0%
SG	#22	#14	#1	#9	-6.4%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

117.4

120.9

Rebounds per Game

44.4

45.6

Assists per Game

27.3

25.6

Steals per Game

7.2

9.1

Blocks per Game

5.4

5.0

Shots per Game

89.2

93.7

3-Pointers Made per Game

12.6

14.4

2-Pt Percentage per Game

59.0

54.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.2

37.4

Turnovers per Game

11.1

10.4

Fouls per Game

17.6

19.3

Recent Trends

Jalen Green (PG/SG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 53.9% to 25.1, 16.3 min average previous 3 games.
Maxi Kleber (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.4% to 13.8, 20.2 min average previous 3 games.