Mavericks vs Thunder Game Breakdown

Get ready for an electrifying showdown at the Paycom Center tonight as the Dallas Mavericks, sporting a solid early playoff record, gallop into Oklahoma City to face the undefeated Thunder in what promises to be a pivotal first-round NBA Playoff game. With the majority of the opening games turning into blowouts, fans are buzzing with hope that this clash will crank up the intensity. Scheduled for a 09:30 PM EST tipoff, the stakes are sky-high with both teams looking to assert their dominance in the Western Conference. The betting lines are buzzing too, with a tight spread that suggests a thunderstorm of action on the court. As the Thunder look to strike again following their electrifying victory over Milwaukee, and the Mavericks aim to bounce back and lasso themselves a win, tonight’s game is set to be a true tempest of talent. So, saddle up and prepare for the Mavericks to try and weather the Thunder!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: May 07, 2024 09:30PM EST

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Vegas Odds

	DAL ML	OKL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+115	-150	218.5	3.5/-3.5
Recent	+135	-160	218.5	4.0/-4.0
Difference	+20	-10	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

8W-2L

AWAY

24W-15L

42.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

31W-7L

57.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
04/14/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	22	19	16	29	00	86	Over
04/14/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	39	43	26	27	00	135	Over
03/14/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	27	36	24	32	00	119	Over
03/14/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	33	32	30	31	00	126	Over
02/10/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	30	32	27	22	00	111	Over
02/10/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	47	24	39	36	00	146	Over
12/02/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	33	39	35	19	00	126	Over
12/02/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	27	29	28	36	00	120	Over
01/08/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	34	21	28	26	00	109	Over
01/08/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	33	36	27	24	00	120	Over
12/12/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	28	24	38	24	00	114	Over
12/12/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	23	43	31	24	00	121	Over
10/29/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	27	19	26	27	180	117	Over
10/29/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	25	26	20	28	120	111	Over
02/02/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	30	21	34	18	170	120	Over
02/02/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	28	23	25	27	110	114	Over
01/17/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	24	18	30	30	00	102	Under
01/17/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	33	20	24	27	00	104	Under
01/02/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	25	22	22	00	95	Under
01/02/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	22	17	25	22	00	86	Under
12/12/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	28	28	24	23	00	103	Under
12/12/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	27	19	25	13	00	84	Under

Mavericks Vs Over/Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Mavericks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ DET	89-107L	49	20	20	83
04/10	vs MIA	111-92W	39	27	7	87
04/09	vs CHA	130-104W	55	35	14	93
04/07	@ HOU	147-136W	47	21	17	85
04/05	@ GSW	108-106W	41	30	17	84
04/04	@ ATL	109-95W	53	20	14	94
04/02	vs GSW	100-104L	42	27	15	89
03/31	vs HOU	125-107W	47	24	13	93
03/29	vs SAC	107-103W	42	24	10	76
03/26	vs SAC	132-96W	49	34	9	92

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ MIL	125-107W	38	29	10	89
04/10	@ SAS	127-89W	62	33	12	101
04/09	@ SAC	112-105W	42	21	13	82
04/07	vs CHA	121-118W	36	33	16	87
04/05	vs IND	112-126L	39	24	15	88
04/03	vs BOS	100-135L	31	21	13	81
04/02	vs PHI	105-109L	43	30	14	87
03/31	vs NYK	113-112W	43	29	12	82
03/29	@ PHX	128-103W	38	33	10	87
03/27	@ HOU	126-132L	49	26	19	96

Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luka Doncic SG	63.8	57.1	62.7	100%	63.1
Daniel Gafford C	23.3	15.4	23.8	83%	25.6
Kyrie Irving PG	42.6	44.5	42.9	100%	43.4
Derrick Jones Jr. SF	19.2	21.2	14.7	83%	15.8
PJ Washington PF	25.2	24.1	26.7	100%	27.1

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SF	25.6	22.7	21.0	100%	21.4
Josh Giddey PG	29.4	29.5	31.6	100%	32.0
S. Gilgeous-Alexander SG	55.9	44.5	47.8	100%	48.2
Chet Holmgren C	39.5	37.3	34.1	100%	34.4
Jalen Williams PF	43.0	39.1	36.7	100%	37.0

Mavericks Notable Injuries

Maxi Kleber (PF/C): Avg: 4.6pts, 3.2reb, 1.6ast, 20.2 minutes. Last game: 05/03/24. Impact: 2.4

Thunder Notable Injuries

Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 4.1pts, 3.3reb, 1.6ast, 13.0 minutes. Last game: 04/29/24. Impact: 2.3
Ousmane Dieng (PF): Avg: 3.6pts, 1.6reb, 1.0ast, 10.6 minutes. Last game: 04/24/24. Impact: 0.9
Lindy Waters III (SG): Avg: 3.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.6ast, 7.0 minutes. Last game: 04/27/24. Impact: 1.3

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	OKL	Pts	28.5	31.8	+3.3	20%	20%	27%	27%	DAL	-3.5	#6
Jalen Williams	OKL	Pts	20.5	23.2	+2.7	60%	50%	47%	47%	DAL	+1.2	#18
Josh Green	DAL	Reb	1.5	2.0	+0.5	80%	70%	73%	73%	OKL	+6.9	#30
Isaiah Joe	OKL	Reb	1.5	1.7	+0.2	80%	80%	87%	87%	DAL	-0.1	#18
Chet Holmgren	OKL	Ast	1.5	2.7	+1.2	60%	70%	60%	60%	DAL	-2.0	#3
Derrick Jones Jr.	DAL	Ast	0.5	1.0	+0.5	60%	50%	60%	60%	OKL	-1.1	#14
Cason Wallace	OKL	3Pt	0.5	0.9	+0.4	60%	50%	53%	53%	DAL	+0.4	#20

View All Player Prop Projections

Mavericks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#10	#7	#3	#2	-26.8%
PF	#16	#14	#14	#15	-0.8%
PG	#20	#3	#25	#25	42.6%
SF	#18	#21	#18	#19	10.8%
SG	#6	#18	#5	#5	-15.5%

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#24	#25	#18	#19	4.6%
PF	#1	#20	#7	#5	-12.7%
PG	#8	#19	#15	#11	-23.8%
SF	#28	#30	#14	#27	32.8%
SG	#10	#17	#11	#11	-5.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

119.2

121.2

Rebounds per Game

47.5

44.5

Assists per Game

25.8

29.0

Steals per Game

5.8

12.5

Blocks per Game

6.5

5.8

Shots per Game

87.0

89.8

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.8

14.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

64.5

55.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

34.0

40.8

Turnovers per Game

14.5

12.8

Fouls per Game

17.2

16.2

Recent Trends

Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.7% to 12.6, 19.5 min average previous 3 games.
Chet Holmgren (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 35.1% to 32.3, 23.9 min average previous 3 games.
Maxi Kleber (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.4% to 15.3, 23.4 min average previous 3 games.