Mavericks vs Suns Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat as the Dallas Mavericks gallop into the Footprint Center, ready to duel under the desert sky against the Phoenix Suns in a sizzling first-round NBA Playoff matchup tonight at 10:00 PM EST. With both teams looking to blaze a trail up the Western Conference rankings, the Mavericks are chomping at the bit to rebound from a recent stumble, while the Suns are fired up after scorching the nets in their last outing. The stakes are sky-high and the scoreboard is set for fireworks with an over/under of 225.5. As these two teams lock horns, expect a showdown that’s more than just a flash in the pan—it’s a battle where Mavericks will try to lasso the Suns in a celestial tug-of-war!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 27, 2024 10:00PM EST

Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix

Vegas Odds

	DAL ML	PHX ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+120	-140	227.5	2.5/-2.5
Recent	+105	-125	225.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-15	+15	-2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

33W-21L

48.8% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

32W-21L

51.2% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
11/08/24	Phoenix Suns PHX	36	27	24	27	114	Over
11/08/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	24	33	30	113	Over
10/26/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	29	25	22	102	Under
10/26/24	Phoenix Suns PHX	28	35	28	23	114	Under
02/22/24	Phoenix Suns PHX	33	30	28	22	113	Over
02/22/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	32	28	36	27	123	Over
01/24/24	Phoenix Suns PHX	25	32	43	32	132	Over
01/24/24	Dallas Mavericks DAL	34	24	20	31	109	Over
12/25/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	36	28	27	37	128	Over
12/25/23	Phoenix Suns PHX	24	30	38	22	114	Over
03/05/23	Phoenix Suns PHX	31	28	37	34	130	Over
03/05/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	25	37	33	31	126	Over
01/26/23	Dallas Mavericks DAL	32	22	22	23	99	Under
01/26/23	Phoenix Suns PHX	32	16	21	26	95	Under
12/05/22	Phoenix Suns PHX	15	26	34	36	111	Over
12/05/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	33	34	29	34	130	Over
10/19/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	32	30	19	24	105	Under
10/19/22	Phoenix Suns PHX	24	21	31	31	107	Under
01/20/22	Phoenix Suns PHX	22	23	29	35	109	Under
01/20/22	Dallas Mavericks DAL	26	27	29	19	101	Under
11/19/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	24	27	33	20	104	Under
11/19/21	Phoenix Suns PHX	27	28	24	33	112	Under
11/17/21	Dallas Mavericks DAL	22	24	27	25	98	Under
11/17/21	Phoenix Suns PHX	25	20	23	37	105	Under

Mavericks Vs Over/Under

Suns Vs Over/Under

Mavericks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/25	@ MIN	99-105L	43	15	12	87
12/21	@ LAC	113-97W	43	25	11	88
12/19	@ LAC	95-118L	40	21	13	86
12/15	vs GSW	143-133W	47	36	15	87
12/10	vs OKL	104-118L	44	25	18	80
12/07	vs TOR	125-118W	52	21	18	81
12/05	vs WAS	137-101W	58	27	15	89
12/03	@ MEM	121-116W	49	24	25	81
12/01	vs POR	137-131W	33	33	13	87
11/30	vs UTA	106-94W	48	30	15	90

Suns Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/25	@ DEN	110-100W	42	31	7	88
12/21	@ DET	125-133L	35	30	19	78
12/19	@ IND	111-120L	44	28	16	82
12/15	@ POR	116-109W	46	23	11	89
12/13	vs UTA	134-126W	37	36	7	89
12/08	vs ORL	110-115L	39	24	19	83
12/07	vs MIA	111-121L	41	29	14	82
12/05	vs NOP	124-126L	46	32	17	85
12/03	@ SAS	104-93W	44	26	12	78
11/30	@ GSW	113-105W	45	31	12	79

Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Quentin Grimes SG	25.0	22.3	17.0	27%	26.3
Kyrie Irving PG	42.0	39.5	39.3	100%	39.6
Dereck Lively II C	29.0	30.3	26.0	53%	26.3
Klay Thompson SF	27.0	33.1	26.7	100%	27.1
PJ Washington PF	33.0	25.1	30.1	100%	30.1

Phoenix Suns	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bradley Beal SG	37.0	32.6	32.5	100%	32.9
Ryan Dunn SF	17.0	10.8	13.2	48%	15.6
Kevin Durant PF	51.0	52.0	43.8	100%	44.2
Tyus Jones PG	30.0	29.6	27.0	100%	27.4
Jusuf Nurkic C	29.0	30.6	28.7	100%	29.1

Mavericks Notable Injuries

Luka Doncic (PG): Avg: 31.8pts, 9.1reb, 9.3ast, 37.8 minutes. Last game: 12/25/24. Impact: 9.4
Markieff Morris (PF/C): Avg: 2.2pts, 1.3reb, 0.5ast, 7.4 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 0.6
Kessler Edwards (SG/SF): Avg: 1.6pts, 0.7reb, 0.2ast, 4.6 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 0.2
Jazian Gortman (PG): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.2reb, 0.2ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 0.4

Suns Notable Injuries

Devin Booker (PG/SG): Avg: 26.7pts, 4.2reb, 6.7ast, 36.4 minutes. Last game: 12/19/24. Impact: 7.1
Grayson Allen (SG): Avg: 12.5pts, 3.8reb, 2.8ast, 31.2 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 3.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Dereck Lively II	DAL	Pts	8.5	10.6	+2.1	40%	30%	40%	40%	PHX	+2.1	#24
Quentin Grimes	DAL	Pts	10.5	12.5	+2.0	60%	60%	53%	53%	PHX	-1.5	#5
Bradley Beal	PHX	Reb	3.5	4.5	+1.0	60%	60%	47%	47%	DAL	+0.3	#22
Kevin Durant	PHX	Reb	6.5	7.0	+0.5	40%	40%	47%	47%	DAL	-0.5	#7

View All Player Prop Projections

Mavericks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#18	#13	#29	#21	2.9%
PF	#15	#22	#26	#18	1.8%
PG	#4	#8	#7	#6	-7.3%
SF	#7	#7	#20	#10	-3.5%
SG	#22	#22	#17	#17	1.6%

Suns Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#24	#7	#5	#7	-3.9%
PF	#29	#23	#29	#30	12.4%
PG	#5	#18	#6	#5	-7.3%
SF	#2	#4	#13	#1	-14.8%
SG	#21	#13	#21	#20	3.5%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

117.4

114.1

Rebounds per Game

45.7

42.4

Assists per Game

25.3

27.3

Steals per Game

8.8

8.2

Blocks per Game

5.9

4.4

Shots per Game

88.3

86.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.1

14.9

2-Pt Percentage per Game

56.3

55.1

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.1

38.3

Turnovers per Game

14.4

12.6

Fouls per Game

19.1

18.5

Recent Trends

Kevin Durant (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.3% to 38.1, 28.8 min average previous 3 games.
Quentin Grimes (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 43.2% to 25.8, 18.0 min average previous 3 games.
Jaden Hardy (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.3% to 10.9, 19.2 min average previous 3 games.