Nuggets vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown as the Denver Nuggets gallop into the Sunshine State to heat things up against the Miami Heat tonight at the Kaseya Center! With the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs off to a rather explosive start, we’re all set for an electrifying encounter that promises to break the mold of recent blowouts. Both teams are itching to bounce back from their latest tumbles and claw closer to conference supremacy. With tipoff at 9 PM EST and stakes sky-high, the betting lines are buzzing and the fans are buzzing even louder. Will the Nuggets mine their way to victory, or will the Heat scorch their trail? Tonight, it’s all about whether Miami can turn up the Heat or if Denver’s Nuggets will prove they’re pure gold!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 17, 2025 09:00PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	DEN ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+115	-135	224.5	2.5/-2.5
Recent	-105	-115	226.5	1.0/-1.0
Difference	-220	+20	+2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

32W-24L

51.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

30W-25L

48.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
11/08/24	Miami Heat MIA	27	33	30	32	122	Over
11/08/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	40	31	33	31	135	Over
03/13/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	26	24	22	28	100	Under
03/13/24	Miami Heat MIA	19	25	27	17	88	Under
02/29/24	Miami Heat MIA	20	31	19	27	97	Under
02/29/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	36	20	27	20	103	Under
02/13/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	27	38	24	23	112	Under
02/13/23	Miami Heat MIA	36	26	21	25	108	Under
12/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	19	38	33	29	119	Over
12/30/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	23	37	25	39	124	Over
11/29/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	32	31	32	25	120	Over
11/29/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	20	35	33	111	Over
11/08/21	Miami Heat MIA	25	24	21	26	96	Under
11/08/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	34	27	22	113	Under

Nuggets Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Nuggets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/15	@ HOU	108-128L	36	22	18	75
01/14	vs DAL	118-99W	51	28	18	83
01/12	vs DAL	112-101W	55	23	13	94
01/10	@ BRO	124-105W	49	34	14	87
01/08	@ LAC	126-103W	45	29	11	89
01/07	@ BOS	106-118L	39	22	16	87
01/04	vs SAS	122-111W	58	32	7	108
01/03	@ SAS	110-113L	46	33	8	97
01/01	@ ATL	139-120W	43	44	12	94
12/30	vs UTA	132-121W	51	38	7	105

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/15	vs LAL	108-117L	37	25	19	73
01/13	vs LAC	98-109L	49	22	15	85
01/11	vs POR	119-98W	43	31	10	92
01/09	vs UTA	97-92W	49	26	14	91
01/07	vs GSW	114-98W	48	32	9	91
01/06	vs SAC	118-123L	53	25	13	102
01/04	@ UTA	100-136L	32	25	15	80
01/02	@ IND	115-128L	39	34	14	75
01/01	@ NOP	119-108W	38	34	10	83
12/29	vs HOU	104-100W	52	21	14	84

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Christian Braun SF	21.0	20.4	25.0	100%	25.3
Nikola Jokic C	59.0	69.2	67.0	100%	67.4
Jamal Murray SG	35.0	34.6	37.3	100%	37.7
Michael Porter Jr. PF	27.0	26.1	32.6	100%	32.9
Russell Westbrook PG	35.0	39.0	33.9	50%	38.9

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	41.0	37.8	38.5	100%	38.9
Jimmy Butler SF	29.0	19.7	33.0	100%	33.5
Tyler Herro PG	44.0	45.8	41.8	100%	42.1
Haywood Highsmith PF	19.0	23.6	18.1	90%	18.6
Terry Rozier SG	23.0	19.1	22.4	57%	23.1

Nuggets Notable Injuries

Dario Saric (C): Avg: 7.1pts, 4.2reb, 2.2ast, 16.7 minutes. Last game: 01/15/25. Impact: 2.2
Trey Alexander (PG/SG): Avg: 0.9pts, 0.4reb, 0.5ast, 4.8 minutes. Last game: 01/15/25. Impact: 0.5

Heat Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/13/25. Impact: 2.2
Pelle Larsson (SG/SF): Avg: 3.8pts, 1.7reb, 1.2ast, 13.0 minutes. Last game: 01/11/25. Impact: 1.2
Keshad Johnson (SF/PF): Avg: 2.3pts, 2.2reb, 0.3ast, 7.8 minutes. Last game: 01/11/25. Impact: 1.1
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.5reb, 1.0ast, 4.6 minutes. Last game: 01/11/25. Impact: 1.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	15.5	18.1	+2.6	40%	50%	60%	60%	DEN	-1.1	#9
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	13.5	15.5	+2.0	20%	60%	67%	67%	DEN	+4.4	#30
Haywood Highsmith	MIA	Reb	3.5	3.9	+0.4	40%	50%	47%	47%	DEN	-0.6	#7

View All Player Prop Projections

Nuggets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#20	#22	#29	#28	7.4%
PF	#9	#3	#9	#5	-4.8%
PG	#5	#12	#29	#18	1.3%
SF	#14	#7	#22	#14	-0.1%
SG	#30	#10	#21	#28	9.3%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#2	#27	#4	#6	-10.6%
PF	#4	#24	#29	#20	1.0%
PG	#6	#16	#18	#9	-4.1%
SF	#23	#26	#17	#24	5.9%
SG	#15	#6	#18	#12	-2.4%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

121.5

110.5

Rebounds per Game

45.2

44.1

Assists per Game

31.1

26.5

Steals per Game

8.6

8.2

Blocks per Game

4.8

3.9

Shots per Game

89.8

86.0

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.6

13.9

2-Pt Percentage per Game

57.9

54.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

38.4

36.0

Turnovers per Game

14.2

12.8

Fouls per Game

18.4

15.6

Recent Trends

Tyler Herro (PG/SG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 3 consecutive games.
Nikola Jokic (C) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 10.0 pts, 14.0 reb, 10.0 ast against DAL
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.9% to 19.5, 33.1 min average previous 3 games.
Aaron Gordon (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.7% to 18.3, 29.9 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Kel’el Ware (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 31.4% to 22.1, 16.8 min average previous 3 games.