Nuggets vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Wed, Mar 13th 2024

Well, hoop heads, it’s time to turn up the heat and strike gold! Tonight, we’re heading down to the Kaseya Center where the sizzling Denver Nuggets, boasting a sterling 45-20 record, are ready to rumble with the Miami Heat, who are holding their own with a respectable 35-29. The Nuggets, sitting pretty at the top of the Western conference, are looking to maintain their golden streak, while the Heat, just 1.5 games behind in the East, are eager to turn up the temperature. The betting gods have set the over/under at 215.5, with the Nuggets favored by a slim -3.0 margin. Now, the Heat may be nursing a recent bruise after a 108-110 tumble against the Wizards, but the Nuggets are still riding high on their 125-119 victory over the Raptors. So, buckle up for a night where we’ll find out if the Nuggets can weather the Heat or if Miami will melt Denver’s golden run. It’s going to be a slam dunk of a night, so don’t ‘nugget’ to tune in!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 13, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	DEN ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-150	+130	215.0	-3.0/3.0
Recent	-165	+140	215.5	-3.5/3.5
Difference	-15	+10	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

9W-1L

AWAY

17W-13L

62.3% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

17W-14L

37.7% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
02/29/24	Miami Heat MIA	20	31	19	27	97	Under
02/29/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	36	20	27	20	103	Under
02/13/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	27	38	24	23	112	Over
02/13/23	Miami Heat MIA	36	26	21	25	108	Over
12/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	19	38	33	29	119	Over
12/30/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	23	37	25	39	124	Over
11/29/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	32	31	32	25	120	Over
11/29/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	20	35	33	111	Over
11/08/21	Miami Heat MIA	25	24	21	26	96	Under
11/08/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	34	27	22	113	Under

Nuggets Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Nuggets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/11	@ TOR	125-119W	42	36	9	95
03/09	@ UTA	142-123W	32	40	13	83
03/07	@ BOS	115-109W	45	27	7	92
03/05	@ PHX	107-117L	51	25	14	98
03/02	vs LAL	124-114W	47	34	10	94
02/29	@ MIA	103-100W	41	22	15	86
02/28	@ SAC	117-96W	43	35	15	87
02/25	vs GSW	119-103W	45	29	10	90
02/23	vs POR	127-112W	45	38	12	85
02/22	@ WAS	130-110W	60	41	16	101

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/10	@ WAS	108-110L	51	20	13	96
03/08	vs OKL	100-107L	43	24	10	83
03/07	vs DAL	108-114L	37	30	10	82
03/05	@ DET	118-110W	42	27	9	85
03/02	@ UTA	126-120W	34	33	6	90
02/29	vs DEN	97-103L	45	21	14	84
02/27	vs POR	106-96W	34	29	18	70
02/26	vs SAC	121-110W	39	27	11	87
02/23	vs NOP	106-95W	46	20	14	82
02/14	vs PHI	109-104W	44	27	13	90

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
K. Caldwell-Pope SG	21.1	24.4	20.2	100%	20.5
Aaron Gordon PF	29.2	26.1	28.5	100%	28.9
Nikola Jokic C	62.1	63.5	59.0	100%	59.3
Jamal Murray PG	44.9	50.9	40.1	100%	40.6
Michael Porter Jr. SF	32.5	33.0	30.2	100%	30.5

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	43.1	28.4	38.8	100%	38.2
Jimmy Butler SF	45.3	36.0	38.1	100%	36.8
Nikola Jovic PF	18.1	16.4	15.1	73%	18.3
Duncan Robinson SG	25.5	22.4	21.1	37%	27.7
Terry Rozier PG	34.0	29.9	33.9	93%	34.9

Nuggets Notable Injuries

Julian Strawther (SG/SF): Avg: 5.0pts, 1.3reb, 1.0ast, 12.2 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.8
Jalen Pickett (PG): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.5reb, 0.8ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.3
Jay Huff (C): Avg: 1.6pts, 0.8reb, 0.1ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.8
Hunter Tyson (PF): Avg: 0.7pts, 0.8reb, 0.1ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 0.4

Heat Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (C): Avg: 9.0pts, 6.2reb, 2.2ast, 17.4 minutes. Last game: 02/27/24. Impact: 3.3
Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 3.8pts, 2.7reb, 0.6ast, 9.7 minutes. Last game: 03/07/24. Impact: 1.0

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	21.5	24.8	+3.3	40%	50%	60%	60%	DEN	+1.6	#23
Terry Rozier	MIA	Pts	15.5	17.8	+2.3	40%	50%	47%	47%	DEN	-2.3	#3
Michael Porter Jr.	DEN	Reb	6.5	7.4	+0.9	60%	70%	53%	53%	MIA	-0.1	#14
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	9.5	10.4	+0.9	20%	30%	40%	40%	DEN	-1.5	#8
Nikola Jokic	DEN	Ast	8.5	9.5	+1.0	40%	60%	47%	47%	MIA	-0.8	#8
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Ast	1.5	2.1	+0.6	60%	60%	40%	40%	DEN	+0.5	#22

View All Player Prop Projections

Nuggets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#16	#8	#16	#14	-4.1%
PF	#16	#20	#24	#17	1.0%
PG	#12	#9	#22	#9	-7.0%
SF	#23	#20	#22	#23	7.0%
SG	#3	#4	#10	#4	-9.4%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#1	#6	#8	#1	-33.0%
PF	#9	#16	#16	#11	-3.4%
PG	#10	#12	#5	#3	-14.1%
SF	#26	#14	#20	#21	6.9%
SG	#12	#18	#17	#14	-0.9%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

116.8

111.1

Rebounds per Game

45.3

42.0

Assists per Game

31.5

26.5

Steals per Game

8.2

8.3

Blocks per Game

6.5

4.6

Shots per Game

91.2

85.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.4

12.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

58.0

53.5

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.1

39.9

Turnovers per Game

12.2

12.0

Fouls per Game

16.9

16.3

Recent Trends

Nikola Jokic (C) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 35.0 pts, 17.0 reb, 12.0 ast against TOR
Bam Adebayo (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.0% to 24.5, 35.0 min average previous 3 games.
Reggie Jackson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.0% to 11.6, 18.8 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.3% to 21.2, 35.5 min average previous 3 games.