Nuggets vs Spurs Game Breakdown

Get ready to rumble as the Denver Nuggets gallop into the heart of Texas to face off against the San Antonio Spurs at the AT&T Center tonight at 9 PM EST! After a slew of first-round playoff blowouts, we’re all buckled up for a showdown that promises more twists and turns than a rodeo. With the Nuggets looking to reclaim their pride after a narrow defeat and the Spurs aiming to keep their winning spurts going, the stakes are sky-high and the scoreboard is set to light up like a San Antonio fiesta! So, as the ball gets tossed up, let’s see if the Nuggets can mine a victory or if the Spurs will continue to stampede towards success!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 04, 2025 09:00PM EST

Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio

Vegas Odds

	DEN ML	SAS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-135	+115	239.0	-2.5/2.5
Recent	-125	+105	236.0	-3.5/3.5
Difference	+10	-10	-3.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

29W-24L

55.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

22W-34L

44.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
01/03/25	San Antonio Spurs SAS	32	28	27	26	113	Under
01/03/25	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	22	38	20	110	Under
04/12/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	31	37	32	20	120	Over
04/12/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	32	18	37	34	121	Over
04/02/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	23	31	31	20	105	Under
04/02/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	25	31	24	110	Under
03/15/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	37	21	28	31	117	Under
03/15/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	18	31	30	27	106	Under
11/26/23	San Antonio Spurs SAS	35	25	24	36	120	Over
11/26/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	39	33	35	25	132	Over
03/10/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	38	29	26	27	120	Over
03/10/23	San Antonio Spurs SAS	26	42	30	30	128	Over
11/07/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	37	29	21	115	Under
11/07/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	28	34	27	20	109	Under
11/05/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	27	24	25	25	101	Under
11/05/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	40	30	29	27	126	Under
04/05/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	32	32	21	31	116	Under
04/05/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	14	35	18	97	Under
12/11/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	44	31	24	127	Over
12/11/21	San Antonio Spurs SAS	29	27	18	38	112	Over
12/09/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	29	36	25	21	111	Under
12/09/21	San Antonio Spurs SAS	37	37	26	23	123	Under
10/22/21	San Antonio Spurs SAS	22	28	20	26	96	Under
10/22/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	26	27	26	23	102	Under

Nuggets Vs Over/Under

Spurs Vs Over/Under

Nuggets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/03	@ SAS	110-113L	46	33	8	97
01/01	@ ATL	139-120W	43	44	12	94
12/30	vs UTA	132-121W	51	38	7	105
12/28	@ DET	134-121W	40	29	13	82
12/27	@ CLE	135-149L	38	39	13	94
12/25	vs PHX	100-110L	46	20	16	78
12/22	vs NOP	132-129W	54	34	22	97
12/19	vs POR	124-126L	40	35	11	87
12/13	@ LAC	120-98W	46	23	21	77
12/08	vs ATL	141-111W	43	43	18	89

Spurs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/03	vs DEN	113-110W	56	31	13	99
12/31	@ LAC	122-86W	58	37	9	98
12/29	vs MIN	110-112L	41	25	9	87
12/27	vs BRO	96-87W	43	26	13	77
12/25	vs NYK	114-117L	45	33	15	83
12/21	@ POR	114-94W	49	33	12	93
12/19	@ ATL	133-126W	42	32	17	101
12/15	@ MIN	92-106L	50	34	18	91
12/13	vs POR	118-116W	41	32	14	85
12/08	@ NOP	121-116W	55	27	13	93

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Christian Braun SF	23.0	27.9	25.6	93%	27.0
Nikola Jokic C	62.0	73.8	66.1	100%	66.5
Jamal Murray SG	40.0	43.0	37.0	100%	37.3
Michael Porter Jr. PF	32.0	32.2	32.4	100%	32.8
Russell Westbrook PG	34.0	35.4	29.1	27%	37.7

San Antonio Spurs	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Harrison Barnes PF	22.0	17.7	18.9	100%	19.3
Stephon Castle SG	22.0	14.2	21.4	59%	26.8
Chris Paul PG	31.0	30.8	30.1	100%	30.4
Devin Vassell SF	33.0	31.1	30.7	67%	33.6
Victor Wembanyama C	58.0	60.6	55.7	100%	56.0

Nuggets Notable Injuries

Aaron Gordon (PF): Avg: 13.9pts, 6.6reb, 3.7ast, 32.1 minutes. Last game: 12/25/24. Impact: 4.3
Spencer Jones (SG/SF): Avg: 1.0pts, 0.0reb, 0.0ast, 2.5 minutes. Last game: 01/01/25. Impact: 0.2

Spurs Notable Injuries

Jeremy Sochan (PF/C): Avg: 11.8pts, 6.8reb, 3.2ast, 29.6 minutes. Last game: 12/31/24. Impact: 4.9
Malaki Branham (PG/SG): Avg: 8.6pts, 1.8reb, 1.9ast, 19.1 minutes. Last game: 12/31/24. Impact: 1.1
Blake Wesley (PG/SG): Avg: 4.1pts, 1.3reb, 2.5ast, 13.4 minutes. Last game: 12/31/24. Impact: 1.7
Sandro Mamukelashvili (PF/C): Avg: 3.8pts, 3.0reb, 0.8ast, 9.4 minutes. Last game: 12/31/24. Impact: 1.6
Sidy Cissoko (SG/SF): Avg: 2.4pts, 1.1reb, 0.5ast, 6.3 minutes. Last game: 12/31/24. Impact: 0.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Harrison Barnes	SAS	Pts	9.5	12.9	+3.4	40%	50%	33%	33%	DEN	0.0	#16
Chris Paul	SAS	Pts	8.5	9.9	+1.4	20%	20%	40%	40%	DEN	+1.2	#25
Michael Porter Jr.	DEN	Reb	5.5	6.9	+1.4	20%	30%	47%	47%	SAS	-0.1	#16
Keldon Johnson	SAS	Reb	4.5	5.0	+0.5	60%	60%	67%	67%	DEN	+0.4	#24
Nikola Jokic	DEN	Ast	8.5	9.0	+0.5	80%	50%	47%	47%	SAS	+0.2	#19

View All Player Prop Projections

Nuggets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#15	#22	#26	#21	3.6%
PF	#7	#3	#11	#13	-2.7%
PG	#25	#13	#29	#27	7.0%
SF	#16	#10	#25	#21	2.7%
SG	#30	#24	#30	#30	11.9%

Spurs Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#19	#16	#19	#17	1.4%
PF	#13	#15	#7	#12	-3.3%
PG	#3	#18	#16	#5	-8.0%
SF	#5	#16	#7	#7	-7.9%
SG	#26	#25	#23	#27	9.9%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

121.2

114.0

Rebounds per Game

44.0

45.2

Assists per Game

32.3

30.0

Steals per Game

8.6

7.5

Blocks per Game

4.5

6.7

Shots per Game

89.2

89.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.9

14.2

2-Pt Percentage per Game

57.8

54.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

38.7

35.3

Turnovers per Game

14.1

13.6

Fouls per Game

17.9

16.6

Recent Trends

Harrison Barnes (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 45.6% to 30.1, 20.7 min average previous 3 games.
David Duke Jr. (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.7% to 11.5, 16.9 min average previous 3 games.