Nuggets vs Spurs Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 12th 2024

Get ready for a showdown in the Lone Star State as the high-flying Denver Nuggets swoop into the AT&T Center to face off against the San Antonio Spurs in a clash that’s got everyone talking! With the Nuggets perched at the top of the Western Conference and the Spurs trying to claw their way out of the basement, tonight’s 08:00 PM EST tipoff promises some serious court action. The stakes are high with the betting lines buzzing—Denver favored heavily, but with an over/under of 222.5, expect some scoreboard fireworks. While the Nuggets charged out of their last game with a solid win, the Spurs are dusting off from a tough tumble. Tonight, it’s all about whether the Spurs can sharpen their spurs or if the Nuggets will keep riding high on their gold rush!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 12, 2024 08:00PM EST

Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio

Vegas Odds

	DEN ML	SAS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-850	+550	223.0	-13.0/13.0
Recent	-850	+550	222.5	-13.0/13.0
Difference	0	0	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

22W-15L

89.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

10W-28L

10.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
04/02/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	23	31	31	20	105	Under
04/02/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	25	31	24	110	Under
03/15/24	Denver Nuggets DEN	37	21	28	31	117	Over
03/15/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	18	31	30	27	106	Over
11/26/23	San Antonio Spurs SAS	35	25	24	36	120	Over
11/26/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	39	33	35	25	132	Over
03/10/23	Denver Nuggets DEN	38	29	26	27	120	Over
03/10/23	San Antonio Spurs SAS	26	42	30	30	128	Over
11/07/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	37	29	21	115	Over
11/07/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	28	34	27	20	109	Over
11/05/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	27	24	25	25	101	Over
11/05/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	40	30	29	27	126	Over
04/05/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	32	32	21	31	116	Under
04/05/22	Denver Nuggets DEN	30	14	35	18	97	Under
12/11/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	28	44	31	24	127	Over
12/11/21	San Antonio Spurs SAS	29	27	18	38	112	Over
12/09/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	29	36	25	21	111	Over
12/09/21	San Antonio Spurs SAS	37	37	26	23	123	Over
10/22/21	San Antonio Spurs SAS	22	28	20	26	96	Under
10/22/21	Denver Nuggets DEN	26	27	26	23	102	Under

Nuggets Vs Over/Under

Spurs Vs Over/Under

Nuggets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/10	@ MIN	116-107W	44	31	13	83
04/09	vs UTA	111-95W	43	30	9	94
04/06	@ ATL	142-110W	47	38	15	88
04/04	vs LAC	100-102L	51	27	13	83
04/02	@ SAS	110-105W	52	28	8	98
03/31	@ CLE	130-101W	51	36	16	87
03/29	@ MIN	98-111L	46	29	12	88
03/27	@ PHX	97-104L	38	24	8	88
03/25	@ MEM	128-103W	50	38	15	90
03/23	vs POR	114-111W	49	25	13	92

Spurs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/10	vs OKL	89-127L	47	24	15	96
04/09	vs MEM	102-87W	51	30	16	87
04/07	@ PHI	126-133L	59	31	25	98
04/05	vs NOP	111-109W	34	34	16	83
04/02	vs DEN	105-110L	59	33	7	105
03/31	@ GSW	113-117L	45	31	19	89
03/29	@ NYK	130-126W	46	34	15	83
03/27	vs UTA	118-111W	41	40	21	86
03/25	@ PHX	104-102W	40	23	7	91
03/23	@ PHX	106-131L	34	27	15	85

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
K. Caldwell-Pope SG	24.3	21.9	20.7	100%	21.1
Aaron Gordon PF	32.8	33.0	30.3	100%	30.7
Nikola Jokic C	67.5	67.0	60.0	100%	60.3
Jamal Murray PG	38.2	40.1	40.0	100%	40.4
Michael Porter Jr. SF	35.2	31.6	32.5	100%	32.9

San Antonio Spurs	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Malaki Branham SG	22.0	22.6	16.5	27%	24.2
Julian Champagnie SF	25.1	27.1	17.1	100%	17.5
Zach Collins C	20.1	26.4	21.0	13%	29.7
Tre Jones PG	31.5	35.5	27.5	100%	27.8
S. Mamukelashvili PF	27.4	25.2	9.2	10%	27.8

Nuggets Notable Injuries

Collin Gillespie (PG): Avg: 3.6pts, 0.9reb, 1.1ast, 9.4 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 1.9
Jalen Pickett (PG): Avg: 1.6pts, 0.5reb, 0.8ast, 4.4 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.5
Braxton Key (PF): Avg: 1.1pts, 0.8reb, 0.5ast, 3.1 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 0.5
Jay Huff (C): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.6reb, 0.1ast, 2.6 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.5
Hunter Tyson (PF): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.5reb, 0.1ast, 2.7 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 0.4

Spurs Notable Injuries

Devin Vassell (SF): Avg: 19.6pts, 3.9reb, 4.0ast, 33.0 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 6.0
Keldon Johnson (SF/PF): Avg: 15.7pts, 5.5reb, 2.8ast, 29.5 minutes. Last game: 04/07/24. Impact: 4.3
Jeremy Sochan (PG): Avg: 11.3pts, 6.4reb, 3.3ast, 29.5 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 5.0
Cedi Osman (SF/PF): Avg: 6.9pts, 2.6reb, 1.7ast, 17.7 minutes. Last game: 04/02/24. Impact: 2.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	DEN	Pts	8.5	11.6	+3.1	60%	70%	67%	67%	SAS	+2.0	#26
Michael Porter Jr.	DEN	Pts	15.5	18.6	+3.1	40%	40%	53%	53%	SAS	-7.1	#5
Aaron Gordon	DEN	Reb	5.5	7.0	+1.5	80%	80%	67%	67%	SAS	-1.9	#10
Nikola Jokic	DEN	Reb	12.5	13.9	+1.4	80%	60%	60%	60%	SAS	-0.6	#13
Julian Champagnie	SAS	Ast	1.5	2.2	+0.7	60%	60%	40%	40%	DEN	+0.7	#21

View All Player Prop Projections

Nuggets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#19	#12	#13	#18	1.9%
PF	#2	#5	#2	#2	-13.9%
PG	#2	#24	#24	#9	-17.5%
SF	#29	#30	#21	#30	32.9%
SG	#11	#12	#18	#9	-4.3%

Spurs Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#24	#13	#29	#20	4.5%
PF	#5	#23	#26	#15	-0.7%
PG	#5	#25	#2	#10	-15.4%
SF	#5	#10	#3	#5	-41.6%
SG	#26	#24	#19	#28	7.4%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

113.1

109.7

Rebounds per Game

45.3

46.7

Assists per Game

30.0

29.6

Steals per Game

7.3

6.9

Blocks per Game

5.6

7.0

Shots per Game

87.5

90.7

3-Pointers Made per Game

12.3

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.5

54.4

3-Pt Percentage per Game

40.0

32.0

Turnovers per Game

11.7

15.7

Fouls per Game

17.9

15.6

Recent Trends

Cedi Osman (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 41.3% to 24.9, 17.6 min average previous 3 games.
Peyton Watson (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 39.0% to 26.9, 19.3 min average previous 3 games.
Blake Wesley (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 54.3% to 21.9, 14.2 min average previous 3 games.