Warriors vs Heat Game Breakdown & Projections – Tue, Mar 26th 2024

Hey, hoop heads! Get ready for a sizzling showdown as the Golden State Warriors, with a respectable 36-34 record, are gearing up to storm the Kaseya Center, the home turf of the Miami Heat, who are hot on the court with a 39-32 standing. The clock is set for a 7:30PM EST tipoff and trust me, you don’t want to miss this! The Warriors, trailing by 7.5 games in the West, are looking to bounce back from a 110-114 setback against the Timberwolves, while the Heat, just 3 games behind in the East, are still buzzing from their 121-84 blowout against the Cavs. The stakes are high, with the over/under set at a tantalizing 218.0, and the betting lines drawn with the Warriors at -2.0, and the Heat at 2.0. So, brace yourselves as the Warriors aim to extinguish the Heat in this clash of the conferences. It’s going to be a game where the Heat will either sizzle or fizzle, and the Warriors will either shine or whine!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 26, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	GSW ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-130	+110	218.0	-2.0/2.0
Recent	-125	-105	218.0	-2.0/2.0
Difference	+5	-215	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

18W-15L

55.6% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

18W-16L

44.4% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
12/28/23	Miami Heat MIA	22	36	33	23	114	Under
12/28/23	Golden State Warriors GSW	25	26	25	26	102	Under
11/01/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	24	32	38	15	109	Over
11/01/22	Miami Heat MIA	33	25	28	30	116	Over
10/27/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	29	28	23	110	Over
10/27/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	31	32	29	31	123	Over
03/23/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	23	27	31	37	118	Over
03/23/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	27	30	24	104	Over
01/03/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	29	28	26	108	Over
01/03/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	33	26	30	26	115	Over

Warriors Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Warriors Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/24	vs MIN	110-114L	41	23	12	85
03/22	@ IND	111-125L	64	24	14	106
03/20	@ MEM	137-116W	48	43	6	100
03/18	@ NYK	112-119L	39	29	13	88
03/16	vs LAL	128-127W	45	38	7	97
03/13	vs DAL	99-109L	42	19	15	92
03/11	vs SAS	112-102W	45	28	13	93
03/09	@ SAS	113-126L	39	26	12	90
03/07	@ CHI	122-125L	48	31	11	97
03/06	@ MIL	125-90W	50	37	14	93

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/24	@ CLE	121-84W	44	29	9	83
03/22	@ NOP	88-111L	34	22	4	87
03/20	vs CLE	107-104W	37	19	7	83
03/18	vs PHI	91-98L	49	23	15	89
03/17	vs DET	104-101W	47	24	9	89
03/15	vs DET	108-95W	44	23	8	93
03/13	@ DEN	88-100L	42	18	8	81
03/10	@ WAS	108-110L	51	20	13	96
03/08	vs OKL	100-107L	43	24	10	83
03/07	vs DAL	108-114L	37	30	10	82

Starting Lineups

Golden State Warriors	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Stephen Curry PG	41.1	41.5	42.8	100%	43.2
Draymond Green C	33.0	32.6	30.7	90%	31.4
Jonathan Kuminga PF	31.7	29.4	32.8	93%	32.4
Brandin Podziemski SG	22.9	16.3	25.9	60%	24.2
Andrew Wiggins SF	24.8	26.4	24.9	93%	25.8

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	42.6	43.5	38.2	100%	37.6
Jimmy Butler SF	42.7	32.9	37.3	100%	35.9
Nikola Jovic PF	15.8	15.2	14.9	87%	17.2
Patty Mills SG	15.1	13.2	8.1	13%	17.1
Terry Rozier PG	33.9	31.9	30.5	93%	31.3

Warriors Notable Injuries

Dario Saric (PF/C): Avg: 8.0pts, 4.4reb, 2.3ast, 17.3 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 0.9
Kevon Looney (C): Avg: 4.5pts, 5.7reb, 1.9ast, 16.7 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 1.3
Lester Quinones (PG/SG): Avg: 4.5pts, 2.2reb, 1.0ast, 11.7 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 1.3
Gui Santos (SF): Avg: 3.4pts, 2.6reb, 0.7ast, 8.7 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 1.3
Jerome Robinson (SG): Avg: 1.3pts, 0.3reb, 0.3ast, 3.8 minutes. Last game: 03/13/24. Impact: 0.6
Pat Spencer (PG): Avg: 0.7pts, 0.0reb, 0.7ast, 2.0 minutes. Last game: 03/20/24. Impact: 0.4

Heat Notable Injuries

Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): Avg: 13.4pts, 2.5reb, 3.0ast, 28.1 minutes. Last game: 03/18/24. Impact: 4.2
Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.8pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 12.6 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 1.4
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.7pts, 2.4reb, 1.1ast, 8.7 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.9
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 3.2pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 6.2 minutes. Last game: 03/24/24. Impact: 0.8

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Draymond Green	GSW	Pts	7.5	9.5	+2.0	60%	50%	33%	33%	MIA	-3.6	#2
Andrew Wiggins	GSW	Pts	11.5	13.4	+1.9	60%	50%	60%	60%	MIA	+10.0	#30
Patty Mills	MIA	Reb	1.5	2.2	+0.7	40%	60%	53%	53%	GSW	-0.6	#7
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Reb	5.5	5.9	+0.4	0%	20%	40%	40%	GSW	+1.9	#26
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Ast	3.5	3.9	+0.4	20%	30%	27%	27%	GSW	+0.7	#25

View All Player Prop Projections

Warriors Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#26	#19	#25	#27	7.9%
PF	#30	#29	#22	#30	11.3%
PG	#25	#19	#23	#27	10.3%
SF	#6	#26	#14	#16	1.0%
SG	#4	#7	#29	#11	-4.0%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#2	#26	#13	#3	-13.7%
PF	#3	#22	#7	#6	-8.0%
PG	#14	#17	#10	#11	-4.9%
SF	#30	#7	#10	#29	18.3%
SG	#11	#8	#20	#12	-3.7%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

114.2

106.1

Rebounds per Game

46.8

41.5

Assists per Game

29.3

24.6

Steals per Game

7.3

8.1

Blocks per Game

4.9

3.7

Shots per Game

93.8

85.5

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.8

11.6

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.9

52.8

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.4

35.4

Turnovers per Game

12.9

10.1

Fouls per Game

17.3

15.8

Recent Trends

Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.7% to 32.6, 24.2 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 95.1% to 23.6, 12.1 min average previous 3 games.
Caleb Martin (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.9% to 22.9, 33.2 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 44.2% to 30.9, 21.4 min average previous 3 games.
Delon Wright (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 71.1% to 22.6, 13.2 min average previous 3 games.