Pacers vs Heat Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and pace yourself for an electrifying NBA Playoff showdown as the Indiana Pacers dash into the sunny confines of Kaseya Center to battle the Miami Heat tonight! With the playoffs’ first round mostly serving up one-sided affairs, tonight’s clash promises a nail-biter with both teams hungry to tip the scales in their favor. The Pacers, looking to rebound from a recent stumble, and the Heat, riding the high of their latest victory, are set to light up the scoreboard at 08:30 PM EST. As the Eastern Conference standings tighten, every dribble and dunk could shift the scales, setting the stage for a matchup where the over/under tantalizingly hints at a high-scoring affair. So, as the Pacers try to heat things up and the Heat aim to keep their cool, expect a game where Miami’s beaches meet Indiana’s speedways in a fast-breaking, flame-throwing basketball bonanza!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 02, 2025 08:30PM EST

Location: Kaseya Center, Miami

Vegas Odds

	IND ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+105	-125	225.0	2.0/-2.0
Recent	-110	-120	223.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-215	+5	-2.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

27W-32L

52.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

30W-23L

47.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
11/17/24	Miami Heat MIA	20	29	26	35	00	110	Over
11/17/24	Indiana Pacers IND	28	24	33	34	00	119	Over
11/15/24	Miami Heat MIA	26	35	37	26	00	124	Over
11/15/24	Indiana Pacers IND	29	26	30	26	00	111	Over
04/07/24	Miami Heat MIA	24	22	32	37	00	115	Over
04/07/24	Indiana Pacers IND	38	25	28	26	00	117	Over
12/02/23	Indiana Pacers IND	25	40	41	38	00	144	Over
12/02/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	34	33	31	00	129	Over
11/30/23	Indiana Pacers IND	38	35	27	32	00	132	Over
11/30/23	Miami Heat MIA	33	31	33	45	00	142	Over
02/08/23	Indiana Pacers IND	30	33	20	28	00	111	Over
02/08/23	Miami Heat MIA	39	21	29	27	00	116	Over
12/23/22	Indiana Pacers IND	31	25	28	27	00	111	Under
12/23/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	24	26	00	108	Under
12/12/22	Miami Heat MIA	26	21	20	20	00	87	Under
12/12/22	Indiana Pacers IND	19	23	22	18	00	82	Under
11/04/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	21	27	22	00	99	Under
11/04/22	Indiana Pacers IND	28	34	18	21	00	101	Under
12/21/21	Indiana Pacers IND	21	24	24	27	00	96	Under
12/21/21	Miami Heat MIA	33	35	30	27	00	125	Under
12/03/21	Miami Heat MIA	32	30	30	21	00	113	Under
12/03/21	Indiana Pacers IND	25	30	26	23	00	104	Under
10/23/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	22	17	23	50	91	Under
10/23/21	Indiana Pacers IND	28	28	8	22	160	102	Under

Pacers Vs Over/Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Pacers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/31	@ MIL	112-120L	50	26	16	90
12/29	vs BOS	123-114W	50	27	9	87
12/27	vs BOS	105-142L	39	27	12	91
12/26	@ OKL	114-120L	51	28	11	89
12/22	vs SAC	122-95W	50	36	10	86
12/19	vs PHX	120-111W	47	30	9	89
12/15	@ NOP	119-104W	43	33	17	81
12/13	vs PHI	121-107W	41	35	10	91
12/08	@ CHA	109-113L	29	23	17	82
12/06	vs CHI	132-123W	46	33	12	92

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/01	@ NOP	119-108W	38	34	10	83
12/29	vs HOU	104-100W	52	21	14	84
12/28	vs ATL	110-120L	42	23	8	90
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75
12/20	@ OKL	97-104L	41	20	18	83
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86
12/04	@ LAL	134-93W	52	42	15	90

Starting Lineups

Indiana Pacers	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Tyrese Haliburton PG	40.0	35.7	37.6	100%	38.0
Bennedict Mathurin SF	27.0	29.1	28.6	87%	29.8
Andrew Nembhard SG	29.0	31.2	25.7	100%	26.0
Pascal Siakam PF	38.0	37.4	35.6	100%	36.0
Myles Turner C	34.0	28.3	29.5	100%	29.9

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.0	37.2	39.0	100%	39.5
Jimmy Butler SG	32.0	23.6	33.2	100%	33.6
Tyler Herro PG	44.0	41.2	40.2	100%	40.6
Haywood Highsmith PF	14.0	17.1	16.1	63%	17.5

Pacers Notable Injuries

Quenton Jackson (PG/SG): Avg: 5.3pts, 1.4reb, 1.5ast, 12.4 minutes. Last game: 12/29/24. Impact: 1.7
James Johnson (PF/C): Avg: 1.2pts, 0.6reb, 0.7ast, 4.5 minutes. Last game: 12/27/24. Impact: 0.6
Enrique Freeman (PF/C): Avg: 1.5pts, 0.8reb, 0.4ast, 7.0 minutes. Last game: 12/27/24. Impact: 0.5

Heat Notable Injuries

Terry Rozier (PG/SG): Avg: 17.6pts, 4.0reb, 4.7ast, 31.7 minutes. Last game: 12/29/24. Impact: 3.7
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 6.2pts, 2.5reb, 1.8ast, 18.8 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 3.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Myles Turner	IND	Pts	13.5	16.9	+3.4	40%	50%	47%	47%	MIA	-2.5	#6
Pascal Siakam	IND	Pts	18.5	20.6	+2.1	60%	70%	53%	53%	MIA	-1.9	#3
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	10.5	11.0	+0.5	0%	30%	33%	33%	IND	+1.8	#30
Ben Sheppard	IND	Ast	0.5	1.0	+0.5	60%	70%	67%	67%	MIA	-0.4	#8

View All Player Prop Projections

Pacers Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#21	#28	#7	#19	1.5%
PF	#23	#30	#4	#24	5.0%
PG	#20	#10	#20	#20	2.2%
SF	#29	#17	#30	#28	9.9%
SG	#13	#8	#10	#6	-6.5%

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#6	#20	#24	#9	-4.6%
PF	#3	#17	#28	#12	-3.6%
PG	#8	#16	#21	#10	-4.2%
SF	#24	#18	#13	#19	1.7%
SG	#14	#13	#8	#13	-3.1%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

113.4

112.1

Rebounds per Game

40.9

42.9

Assists per Game

27.2

25.7

Steals per Game

8.2

9.0

Blocks per Game

5.2

3.1

Shots per Game

86.6

87.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.0

14.3

2-Pt Percentage per Game

55.2

52.4

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.8

37.5

Turnovers per Game

13.5

12.3

Fouls per Game

19.3

17.1

Recent Trends

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 38.0% to 20.5, 33.0 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 73.9% to 33.3, 19.1 min average previous 3 games.
Isaiah Jackson (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 91.6% to 20.9, 10.9 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.9% to 27.6, 20.8 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Obi Toppin (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.8% to 13.5, 22.8 min average previous 3 games.
Jarace Walker (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 74.3% to 23.1, 13.3 min average previous 3 games.