Heat vs Hawks Game Breakdown & Projections – Tue, Apr 9th 2024

Get ready to turn up the heat, basketball fans! Tonight, the Miami Heat, who’ve been scorching their way up the Eastern conference and are just 3.0 games off the pace, are swooping into the Hawks’ nest at State Farm Arena. They’re set to face off against the Atlanta Hawks, who’ve been flapping their wings furiously but still find themselves 10.0 games adrift in the same conference. The action kicks off at 07:30PM EST, so make sure your evening plans are clear! Now, the betting lines are buzzing with the Heat at a -2.5 and the Hawks at 2.5, with the over/under set at a tantalizing 220.0. Both teams are looking to bounce back from recent losses, with the Hawks licking their wounds after a 110-142 blowout against Denver, and the Heat still smoldering from a 115-117 nail-biter against Indiana. So, buckle up folks, because tonight, it’s not just about surviving the Heat, it’s about out-flying the Hawks!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 09, 2024 07:30PM EST

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-165	+140	222.5	-2.5/2.5
Recent	-135	+105	220.0	-4.0/4.0
Difference	+30	-35	-2.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

22W-17L

57.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

20W-17L

42.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
01/19/24	Atlanta Hawks ATL	32	25	24	28	109	Under
01/19/24	Miami Heat MIA	24	32	27	25	108	Under
12/22/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	26	34	26	27	113	Over
12/22/23	Miami Heat MIA	33	29	26	34	122	Over
11/11/23	Miami Heat MIA	41	22	30	24	117	Over
11/11/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	24	28	30	27	109	Over
03/06/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	43	25	28	32	128	Over
03/06/23	Miami Heat MIA	30	33	29	38	130	Over
03/04/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	26	23	26	34	109	Over
03/04/23	Miami Heat MIA	29	37	21	30	117	Over
01/16/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	24	30	33	113	Over
01/16/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	38	32	21	30	121	Over
11/27/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	28	34	21	106	Under
11/27/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	31	29	21	17	98	Under
04/08/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	22	39	26	22	109	Over
04/08/22	Miami Heat MIA	24	32	35	22	113	Over
01/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	21	23	34	108	Under
01/21/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	31	29	28	22	110	Under
01/14/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	30	40	29	19	118	Over
01/14/22	Miami Heat MIA	40	24	30	30	124	Over
01/12/22	Miami Heat MIA	21	35	30	29	115	Under
01/12/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	27	24	16	24	91	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Hawks Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/07	vs IND	115-117L	39	21	7	84
04/05	vs HOU	119-96W	48	27	9	81
04/04	@ PHI	105-109L	51	24	15	94
04/02	@ NYK	109-99W	39	24	17	74
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92
03/24	@ CLE	121-84W	44	29	9	83
03/22	@ NOP	88-111L	34	22	4	87
03/20	vs CLE	107-104W	37	19	7	83

Hawks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/06	vs DEN	110-142L	38	30	16	87
04/04	vs DAL	95-109L	56	21	21	85
04/03	@ DET	121-113W	48	36	16	90
04/01	vs CHI	113-101W	45	29	14	82
03/30	@ MIL	113-122L	39	24	11	92
03/28	@ BOS	123-122W	53	24	11	106
03/27	@ POR	120-106W	41	23	16	85
03/25	@ BOS	120-118W	44	30	13	87
03/23	@ CHA	132-91W	43	40	8	90
03/21	vs PHX	115-131L	36	27	8	92

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	44.1	39.1	39.0	100%	39.4
Jimmy Butler SF	42.5	35.5	37.7	100%	36.4
Tyler Herro SG	34.1	33.0	35.0	90%	35.9
Nikola Jovic PF	17.9	22.4	15.6	90%	17.6
Terry Rozier PG	29.3	33.6	30.6	100%	30.1

Atlanta Hawks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bogdan Bogdanovic SG	34.0	36.6	31.0	77%	31.5
Clint Capela C	34.4	33.5	30.8	100%	31.1
De’Andre Hunter SF	25.8	25.4	24.8	33%	27.6
Jalen Johnson PF	40.2	40.2	37.9	100%	37.5
Dejounte Murray PG	47.3	39.4	47.1	100%	47.5

Heat Notable Injuries

Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): Avg: 12.7pts, 2.5reb, 2.8ast, 27.6 minutes. Last game: 04/07/24. Impact: 2.8
Thomas Bryant (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 3.4reb, 0.6ast, 11.0 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 3.0
Patty Mills (PG/SG): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.1reb, 1.1ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 2.1
Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.2pts, 1.6reb, 0.4ast, 11.1 minutes. Last game: 04/05/24. Impact: 0.9
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 2.3reb, 1.0ast, 8.2 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.7
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.8pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 5.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.6
Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.2

Hawks Notable Injuries

Trae Young (PG): Avg: 25.4pts, 2.6reb, 10.6ast, 35.6 minutes. Last game: 03/28/24. Impact: 6.2
Trent Forrest (PG): Avg: 2.1pts, 1.3reb, 2.4ast, 10.8 minutes. Last game: 03/30/24. Impact: 1.5
Dylan Windler (SF/PF): Avg: 1.9pts, 0.8reb, 0.6ast, 5.1 minutes. Last game: 03/30/24. Impact: 0.8
Mouhamed Gueye (C): Avg: 0.0pts, 0.3reb, 0.0ast, 2.7 minutes. Last game: 04/06/24. Impact: 0.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Dejounte Murray	ATL	Pts	21.5	24.4	+2.9	20%	50%	53%	53%	MIA	-1.9	#5
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	21.5	23.2	+1.7	40%	30%	27%	27%	ATL	+0.4	#16
Jalen Johnson	ATL	Reb	8.5	9.4	+0.9	60%	60%	67%	67%	MIA	-0.5	#15
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Reb	3.5	4.2	+0.7	60%	50%	47%	47%	ATL	-2.0	#10
Garrison Mathews	ATL	Ast	0.5	0.7	+0.2	40%	60%	53%	53%	MIA	-3.0	#2

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#5	#15	#8	#5	-7.8%
PF	#1	#15	#2	#1	-14.8%
PG	#21	#8	#25	#16	0.9%
SF	#30	#15	#2	#27	18.2%
SG	#5	#14	#22	#6	-6.6%

Hawks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#6	#17	#6	#8	-6.9%
PF	#13	#12	#20	#16	1.7%
PG	#30	#19	#15	#29	37.9%
SF	#16	#10	#30	#19	7.1%
SG	#25	#21	#9	#21	3.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

107.7

113.6

Rebounds per Game

43.3

Assists per Game

24.1

28.5

Steals per Game

8.1

7.8

Blocks per Game

3.5

4.8

Shots per Game

86.7

90.0

3-Pointers Made per Game

12.1

15.3

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.6

52.9

3-Pt Percentage per Game

34.2

39.1

Turnovers per Game

10.0

12.7

Fouls per Game

15.2

18.7

Recent Trends

Vit Krejci (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.3% to 19.9, 30.8 min average previous 3 games.
Caleb Martin (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 43.1% to 32.1, 22.4 min average previous 3 games.
Wesley Matthews (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 43.3% to 10.1, 17.9 min average previous 3 games.
Onyeka Okongwu (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.1% to 23.5, 34.1 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.4% to 17.5, 27.1 min average previous 3 games.
Trae Young (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 35.6% to 23.3, 36.1 min average previous 3 games.