Heat vs Hawks Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and watch the feathers fly as the Miami Heat blaze into State Farm Arena for a sizzling showdown against the Atlanta Hawks! With the playoff atmosphere buzzing and the first round games mostly being a slam dunk of blowouts, today’s face-off promises some real nail-biting action. Scheduled for a 4 PM EST tipoff, both teams are neck and neck in the Eastern conference standings, making every play and point crucial in their chase for supremacy. Miami is looking to bring the fire after a skin-of-their-teeth victory, while Atlanta aims to soar higher following a high-scoring triumph. As the lines are drawn and bets placed, this game could very well be a basket-bonanza. So, fans, get ready as the Heat look to cook up a storm, and the Hawks prepare to take flight in what’s shaping up to be a scorcher of a game!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 28, 2024 04:00PM EST

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+105	-125	226.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+120	-140	225.5	2.5/-2.5
Difference	+15	-15	-1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

27W-24L

45.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

28W-25L

54.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
04/09/24	Miami Heat MIA	30	29	21	21	610	117	Over
04/09/24	Atlanta Hawks ATL	27	20	33	21	64	111	Over
01/19/24	Atlanta Hawks ATL	32	25	24	28	00	109	Under
01/19/24	Miami Heat MIA	24	32	27	25	00	108	Under
12/22/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	26	34	26	27	00	113	Over
12/22/23	Miami Heat MIA	33	29	26	34	00	122	Over
11/11/23	Miami Heat MIA	41	22	30	24	00	117	Over
11/11/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	24	28	30	27	00	109	Over
03/06/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	43	25	28	32	00	128	Over
03/06/23	Miami Heat MIA	30	33	29	38	00	130	Over
03/04/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	26	23	26	34	00	109	Over
03/04/23	Miami Heat MIA	29	37	21	30	00	117	Over
01/16/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	24	30	33	00	113	Over
01/16/23	Atlanta Hawks ATL	38	32	21	30	00	121	Over
11/27/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	28	34	21	00	106	Under
11/27/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	31	29	21	17	00	98	Under
04/08/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	22	39	26	22	00	109	Under
04/08/22	Miami Heat MIA	24	32	35	22	00	113	Under
01/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	21	23	34	00	108	Under
01/21/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	31	29	28	22	00	110	Under
01/14/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	30	40	29	19	00	118	Over
01/14/22	Miami Heat MIA	40	24	30	30	00	124	Over
01/12/22	Miami Heat MIA	21	35	30	29	00	115	Under
01/12/22	Atlanta Hawks ATL	27	24	16	24	00	91	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Hawks Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75
12/20	@ OKL	97-104L	41	20	18	83
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86
12/04	@ LAL	134-93W	52	42	15	90
12/02	vs BOS	89-108L	44	24	10	87
12/01	vs TOR	116-119L	45	25	14	88
11/29	@ TOR	121-111W	33	32	8	94

Hawks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/26	@ CHI	141-133W	44	32	12	89
12/21	@ MEM	112-128L	41	29	25	80
12/19	vs SAS	126-133L	53	32	22	97
12/14	vs MIL	102-110L	44	23	13	82
12/11	vs NYK	108-100W	58	27	10	104
12/08	@ DEN	111-141L	45	26	12	101
12/06	@ LAL	134-132W	48	40	17	100
12/04	vs MIL	119-104W	55	29	11	103
12/02	@ NOP	124-112W	51	30	18	96
11/30	vs CHA	107-104W	49	27	20	78

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	47.0	38.5	37.6	100%	38.1
Tyler Herro PG	42.0	42.0	38.5	100%	38.9
Haywood Highsmith PF	16.0	9.3	15.5	53%	16.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF	27.0	17.7	20.0	20%	28.8
Duncan Robinson SG	22.0	19.6	15.6	50%	18.2

Atlanta Hawks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Clint Capela C	28.0	23.3	26.8	100%	27.1
Dyson Daniels SG	32.0	28.9	29.1	87%	32.4
Jalen Johnson PF	45.0	47.7	44.3	100%	44.7
Zaccharie Risacher SF	15.0	14.1	19.4	93%	20.6
Trae Young PG	44.0	50.4	44.4	100%	44.7

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 20.0pts, 5.2reb, 4.8ast, 33.0 minutes. Last game: 12/20/24. Impact: 5.3
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 6.2pts, 2.5reb, 1.8ast, 18.8 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 3.1

Hawks Notable Injuries

Onyeka Okongwu (C): Avg: 10.4pts, 6.7reb, 1.3ast, 24.9 minutes. Last game: 12/14/24. Impact: 4.0
Dominick Barlow (C): Avg: 4.3pts, 3.3reb, 1.1ast, 12.3 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 1.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	17.5	20.9	+3.4	40%	30%	40%	40%	ATL	-1.5	#7
Terry Rozier	MIA	Pts	12.5	13.2	+0.7	60%	50%	40%	40%	ATL	+0.9	#22
Dyson Daniels	ATL	Reb	5.5	5.7	+0.2	60%	30%	40%	40%	MIA	0.0	#17

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#16	#15	#19	#11	-0.9%
PF	#8	#20	#29	#14	-1.0%
PG	#16	#17	#19	#14	0.2%
SF	#22	#15	#17	#15	-0.1%
SG	#4	#16	#10	#6	-6.9%

Hawks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#29	#8	#12	#25	5.9%
PF	#7	#19	#30	#22	4.4%
PG	#22	#18	#25	#23	4.3%
SF	#28	#25	#22	#30	11.8%
SG	#23	#10	#19	#19	2.6%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

112.0

117.5

Rebounds per Game

42.6

46.8

Assists per Game

25.8

30.2

Steals per Game

9.2

10.1

Blocks per Game

3.2

5.0

Shots per Game

87.0

94.0

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.8

12.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

51.6

54.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

38.3

34.4

Turnovers per Game

12.4

15.5

Fouls per Game

17.2

18.4

Recent Trends

Trae Young (PG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 12 assists in 2 consecutive games.
Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 54.3% to 26.1, 16.9 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 65.3% to 20.8, 12.6 min average previous 3 games.
Vit Krejci (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 51.8% to 16.8, 11.1 min average previous 3 games.
Larry Nance Jr. (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 62.1% to 26.1, 16.1 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.