Heat vs Celtics Game Breakdown & Projections – Wed, Apr 24th 2024

Get ready to turn up the heat and feel the Celtic pride as the NBA playoffs heat up with a sizzling first-round matchup! Tonight at 7 PM EST, the TD Garden will be bursting at the seams as the Miami Heat, fresh off a fiery victory, bring their 1W-2L record to Boston to challenge the undefeated Celtics. With both teams sitting pretty at the top of the Eastern Conference, the stakes are sky-high and the betting lines are buzzing. The Celtics, who recently scorched the Hornets with a staggering 131-98 win, are looking to keep their cool and maintain their pristine record. Meanwhile, the Heat, coming in hot from a 125-103 triumph over the Raptors, are ready to turn the tables. So, buckle up, sports fans—tonight, it’s all about whether Miami can extinguish the Celtics’ fiery streak or if Boston will continue to blaze a trail of glory!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 24, 2024 07:00PM EST

Location: TD Garden, Boston

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+260	-370	203.0	15.0/-15.0
Recent	+285	-420	204.0	14.5/-14.5
Difference	+25	-50	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

23W-17L

26.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

35W-4L

74.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
04/21/24	Miami Heat MIA	21	24	14	35	00	94	Over
04/21/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	34	31	23	00	114	Over
02/11/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	33	27	24	00	110	Over
02/11/24	Miami Heat MIA	22	28	29	27	00	106	Over
01/25/24	Boston Celtics BOS	42	35	36	30	00	143	Over
01/25/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	35	26	20	00	110	Over
10/27/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	27	33	23	00	111	Over
10/27/23	Boston Celtics BOS	25	35	27	32	00	119	Over
01/24/23	Boston Celtics BOS	30	28	24	13	00	95	Under
01/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	18	25	23	00	98	Under
12/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	32	22	29	100	120	Over
12/02/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	35	25	23	60	116	Over
11/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	35	25	36	25	00	121	Over
11/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	38	30	34	32	00	134	Over
10/21/22	Boston Celtics BOS	30	29	30	22	00	111	Over
10/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	22	29	26	27	00	104	Over
03/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	28	26	27	00	106	Push
03/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	29	23	31	15	00	98	Push
01/31/22	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	25	22	00	92	Over
01/31/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	27	40	28	00	122	Over
11/04/21	Boston Celtics BOS	18	33	24	20	00	95	Under
11/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	9	24	21	00	78	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Celtics Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ TOR	125-103W	37	37	4	86
04/10	@ DAL	92-111L	46	22	15	81
04/09	vs ATL	117-111W	46	29	18	88
04/07	vs IND	115-117L	39	21	7	84
04/05	vs HOU	119-96W	48	27	9	81
04/04	@ PHI	105-109L	51	24	15	94
04/02	@ NYK	109-99W	39	24	17	74
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92

Celtics Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/12	@ CHA	131-98W	53	34	6	104
04/11	@ NYK	109-118L	36	25	12	86
04/09	vs MIL	91-104L	38	27	12	93
04/07	@ POR	124-107W	40	34	12	87
04/05	@ SAC	101-100W	51	25	7	90
04/03	@ OKL	135-100W	46	33	10	92
04/01	vs CHA	118-104W	51	28	10	89
03/30	vs NOP	104-92W	51	27	12	82
03/28	vs ATL	122-123L	43	28	12	94
03/25	vs ATL	118-120L	38	21	7	95

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	40.8	31.1	38.0	100%	38.4
Tyler Herro PG	37.9	33.3	33.8	90%	34.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SG	28.5	20.2	19.9	20%	25.4
Nikola Jovic PF	18.4	26.1	17.2	90%	19.4
Caleb Martin SF	19.8	20.1	20.5	33%	19.9

Boston Celtics	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jaylen Brown SF	38.1	34.9	38.2	100%	38.6
Jrue Holiday PG	28.6	24.5	27.7	100%	28.2
Kristaps Porzingis C	40.4	41.9	38.9	100%	39.2
Jayson Tatum PF	54.0	40.8	48.1	100%	48.5
Derrick White SG	29.8	24.4	33.3	100%	33.6

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF): Avg: 20.6pts, 5.2reb, 4.9ast, 33.6 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 5.8
Patty Mills (PG/SG): Avg: 4.1pts, 1.1reb, 1.1ast, 13.1 minutes. Last game: 04/10/24. Impact: 2.0
Jamal Cain (SG): Avg: 3.9pts, 1.5reb, 0.4ast, 10.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.6
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.4pts, 2.1reb, 0.9ast, 7.8 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.6
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.5pts, 0.4reb, 0.3ast, 5.0 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.5
Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.5pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 0.1

Celtics Notable Injuries

Luke Kornet (C): Avg: 5.2pts, 4.1reb, 1.0ast, 15.4 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 2.4
Neemias Queta (C): Avg: 4.7pts, 3.9reb, 0.6ast, 11.2 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 2.4
Drew Peterson (SF): Avg: 8.0pts, 0.0reb, 0.0ast, 12.0 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.8
Oshae Brissett (PF): Avg: 3.5pts, 2.9reb, 0.8ast, 11.2 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.7
Jaden Springer (SG/SF): Avg: 3.3pts, 1.6reb, 0.9ast, 10.2 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.3
Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF): Avg: 3.4pts, 1.2reb, 0.8ast, 9.4 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.6
JD Davison (PG): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.0reb, 1.3ast, 4.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.2
Jordan Walsh (SF): Avg: 1.8pts, 2.1reb, 0.5ast, 8.3 minutes. Last game: 04/12/24. Impact: 1.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jayson Tatum	BOS	Pts	25.5	29.3	+3.8	0%	30%	53%	53%	MIA	+12.3	#29
Kristaps Porzingis	BOS	Pts	18.5	21.1	+2.6	40%	60%	67%	67%	MIA	-2.7	#4
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	9.5	10.0	+0.5	20%	50%	60%	60%	BOS	-0.1	#14
Al Horford	BOS	Ast	1.5	2.2	+0.7	40%	60%	67%	67%	MIA	-3.5	#1
Jrue Holiday	BOS	3Pt	1.5	1.8	+0.3	60%	60%	73%	73%	MIA	-0.3	#9

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#4	#1	#8	#1	-17.3%
PF	#7	#13	#6	#5	-7.6%
PG	#19	#4	#26	#20	5.9%
SF	#29	#26	#1	#27	18.8%
SG	#11	#24	#26	#14	-1.8%

Celtics Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#10	#14	#11	#9	-8.7%
PF	#5	#24	#12	#4	-9.0%
PG	#24	#14	#8	#16	-2.9%
SF	#18	#17	#11	#23	8.6%
SG	#16	#11	#11	#11	-3.7%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

113.5

115.3

Rebounds per Game

43.1

44.7

Assists per Game

27.1

28.2

Steals per Game

7.3

7.8

Blocks per Game

3.4

6.3

Shots per Game

85.4

91.2

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.2

15.1

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.3

59.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

38.6

35.9

Turnovers per Game

11.4

10.0

Fouls per Game

15.6

14.6

Recent Trends

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 23.0 pts, 10.0 reb, 10.0 ast against MIA
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 60.7% to 28.8, 17.9 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 37.3% to 16.0, 25.6 min average previous 3 games.