Heat vs Celtics Game Breakdown

Get ready for an electrifying showdown at TD Garden tonight as the Miami Heat, sitting at a balanced .500, roll into Boston to challenge the top-tier Celtics in what promises to be a pivotal first-round playoff clash. With the Celtics looking to rebound from a recent stumble against Cleveland and the Heat trying to turn up the heat after their narrow miss against Toronto, tonight’s matchup at 08:30 PM EST is set to be anything but lukewarm. The stakes are sky-high with Boston leading the Eastern conference charge and Miami trying to blaze a trail up the standings. With a spicy over/under of 220.5, who will fan the flames and who will get extinguished? It’s time to see if the Heat can cook up a storm or if the Celtics will keep their cool and clinch a victory. Let’s see which team turns up the temperature and which gets left out in the cold!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 02, 2024 08:30PM EST

Location: TD Garden, Boston

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+375	-525	222.0	10.5/-10.5
Recent	+360	-500	220.5	10.0/-10.0
Difference	-15	+25	-1.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

26W-22L

21.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

8W-2L

HOME

42W-6L

78.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final	O/U
02/11/24	Boston Celtics BOS	26	33	27	24	00	110	Under
02/11/24	Miami Heat MIA	22	28	29	27	00	106	Under
01/25/24	Boston Celtics BOS	42	35	36	30	00	143	Over
01/25/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	35	26	20	00	110	Over
10/27/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	27	33	23	00	111	Over
10/27/23	Boston Celtics BOS	25	35	27	32	00	119	Over
01/24/23	Boston Celtics BOS	30	28	24	13	00	95	Under
01/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	18	25	23	00	98	Under
12/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	32	22	29	100	120	Over
12/02/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	35	25	23	60	116	Over
11/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	35	25	36	25	00	121	Over
11/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	38	30	34	32	00	134	Over
10/21/22	Boston Celtics BOS	30	29	30	22	00	111	Under
10/21/22	Miami Heat MIA	22	29	26	27	00	104	Under
03/30/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	28	26	27	00	106	Under
03/30/22	Boston Celtics BOS	29	23	31	15	00	98	Under
01/31/22	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	25	22	00	92	Under
01/31/22	Boston Celtics BOS	27	27	40	28	00	122	Under
11/04/21	Boston Celtics BOS	18	33	24	20	00	95	Under
11/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	9	24	21	00	78	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Celtics Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/01	vs TOR	116-119L	45	25	14	88
11/29	@ TOR	121-111W	33	32	8	94
11/26	@ MIL	103-106L	38	26	8	77
11/24	@ DAL	123-118W	57	27	9	107
11/18	@ PHI	106-89W	53	26	13	87
11/17	vs IND	110-119L	38	21	10	90
11/15	vs IND	124-111W	36	27	10	87
11/12	vs DET	121-123L	43	25	10	101
11/10	vs MIN	95-94W	43	18	22	77
11/08	vs DEN	122-135L	33	33	11	94

Celtics Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/01	vs CLE	111-115L	46	17	9	95
11/29	vs CHI	138-129W	51	24	9	98
11/25	@ LAC	126-94W	47	33	11	88
11/24	@ MIN	107-105W	40	25	6	87
11/22	vs WAS	108-96W	43	22	12	85
11/19	@ CLE	120-117W	42	32	13	86
11/16	@ TOR	126-123W	42	30	9	99
11/13	vs BRO	139-114W	45	35	7	93
11/12	@ ATL	116-117L	34	28	20	75
11/10	vs MIL	113-107W	42	27	12	86

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.0	40.0	38.1	100%	38.5
Tyler Herro PG	43.0	37.9	37.2	93%	38.1
Haywood Highsmith PF	18.0	14.5	18.3	30%	16.0
Duncan Robinson SF	18.0	17.4	15.0	50%	16.9
Terry Rozier SG	25.0	21.4	28.9	90%	29.8

Boston Celtics	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jaylen Brown SF	36.0	39.8	40.0	100%	40.3
Sam Hauser SG	15.0	18.6	13.1	7%	27.6
Jrue Holiday PG	24.0	24.7	27.1	100%	27.5
Luke Kornet C	2.0	14.8	11.7	7%	25.2
Jayson Tatum PF	49.0	49.8	52.2	100%	52.5

Heat Notable Injuries

Josh Richardson (PG/SG): Avg: 9.2pts, 2.7reb, 2.3ast, 24.7 minutes. Last game: 11/18/24. Impact: 2.4
Nikola Jovic (PF): Avg: 7.9pts, 4.2reb, 1.8ast, 19.5 minutes. Last game: 11/24/24. Impact: 2.7
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 4.2pts, 2.2reb, 1.6ast, 15.0 minutes. Last game: 11/18/24. Impact: 2.0
Kel’el Ware (C): Avg: 2.2pts, 1.2reb, 0.1ast, 6.8 minutes. Last game: 11/26/24. Impact: 0.8

Celtics Notable Injuries

Al Horford (PF/C): Avg: 9.1pts, 6.3reb, 2.3ast, 27.6 minutes. Last game: 12/01/24. Impact: 3.9
Jaden Springer (SG/SF): Avg: 3.0pts, 1.4reb, 0.9ast, 9.2 minutes. Last game: 12/01/24. Impact: 0.8
Drew Peterson (SF): Avg: 3.2pts, 1.0reb, 0.2ast, 8.9 minutes. Last game: 12/01/24. Impact: 1.2
Baylor Scheierman (SG/SF): Avg: 1.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.3ast, 4.9 minutes. Last game: 11/25/24. Impact: 0.5

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	17.5	22.1	+4.6	80%	60%	53%	53%	BOS	-0.8	#10

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#8	#8	#18	#7	-7.6%
PF	#15	#26	#5	#13	-1.8%
PG	#13	#15	#29	#20	2.4%
SF	#26	#11	#14	#24	4.5%
SG	#1	#22	#12	#4	-6.3%

Celtics Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#19	#9	#13	#10	-5.8%
PF	#2	#8	#4	#1	-15.4%
PG	#15	#12	#23	#16	0.3%
SF	#8	#25	#6	#12	-1.0%
SG	#10	#10	#5	#3	-6.7%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

109.6

119.8

Rebounds per Game

42.5

43.3

Assists per Game

25.7

27.1

Steals per Game

8.5

7.4

Blocks per Game

3.4

5.7

Shots per Game

87.2

90.8

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.8

18.0

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.0

56.7

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.7

38.6

Turnovers per Game

10.7

10.3

Fouls per Game

16.4

15.6

Recent Trends

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 35.2, 26.2 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Luke Kornet (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 35.1% to 16.5, 12.2 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.