Heat vs Cavaliers Game Breakdown & Projections – Wed, Mar 20th 2024

Hold onto your jerseys, sports fans! The sizzling Miami Heat, who’ve been feeling a bit frosty after their recent stumble against the Sixers, are revving up to bring the heat wave to the chilly Midwest. They’re set to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are riding high on their recent triumph over the Pacers, in their fortress, the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. These Eastern conference gladiators are neck and neck, with the Cavs just a LeBron’s leap ahead of the Heat. Tonight’s game, tipping off at 7 PM EST, is set to be a nail-biter, with the betting lines tighter than a referee’s whistle. The over/under is locked at a tantalizing 204.0, making the stakes as high as a Shaq slam dunk. So, will the Heat melt the Cavs’ recent winning streak, or will the Cavaliers ride roughshod over the Heat’s hopes? Only time will tell. But one thing’s for sure, it’s going to be a hot night in Cleveland, where the Heat and Cavaliers are set to ignite the court!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 20, 2024 07:00PM EST

Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	CLE ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+115	-135	203.0	2.5/-2.5
Recent	-110	-120	204.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-225	+15	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

19W-16L

52.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

22W-12L

47.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
12/08/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	17	36	35	23	111	Over
12/08/23	Miami Heat MIA	25	27	23	24	99	Over
11/22/23	Miami Heat MIA	37	32	32	28	129	Over
11/22/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	29	24	17	96	Over
03/10/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	33	30	26	115	Over
03/10/23	Miami Heat MIA	27	23	32	37	119	Over
03/08/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	31	30	17	104	Push
03/08/23	Miami Heat MIA	30	23	29	18	100	Push
01/31/23	Miami Heat MIA	24	31	24	21	100	Under
01/31/23	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	26	26	27	18	97	Under
11/20/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	15	22	23	87	Under
11/20/22	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	28	31	36	18	113	Under
03/11/22	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	18	39	15	33	105	Over
03/11/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	27	32	117	Over
12/13/21	Miami Heat MIA	25	19	29	21	94	Under
12/13/21	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	23	32	23	27	105	Under
12/01/21	Cleveland Cavaliers CLE	31	30	26	24	111	Under
12/01/21	Miami Heat MIA	16	27	20	22	85	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Cavaliers Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/18	vs PHI	91-98L	49	23	15	89
03/17	vs DET	104-101W	47	24	9	89
03/15	vs DET	108-95W	44	23	8	93
03/13	@ DEN	88-100L	42	18	8	81
03/10	@ WAS	108-110L	51	20	13	96
03/08	vs OKL	100-107L	43	24	10	83
03/07	vs DAL	108-114L	37	30	10	82
03/05	@ DET	118-110W	42	27	9	85
03/02	@ UTA	126-120W	34	33	6	90
02/29	vs DEN	97-103L	45	21	14	84

Cavaliers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/18	vs IND	108-103W	39	27	14	80
03/16	vs HOU	103-117L	45	22	15	82
03/13	vs NOP	116-95W	46	38	9	92
03/11	@ PHX	111-117L	37	30	12	86
03/10	@ BRO	101-120L	31	25	12	76
03/08	@ MIN	113-104W	46	27	12	90
03/06	vs ATL	101-114L	42	27	13	89
03/05	@ BOS	105-104W	42	28	8	90
03/03	@ NYK	98-107L	39	31	10	87
03/01	vs DET	110-100W	53	25	15	83

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	40.1	37.6	38.6	100%	38.1
Jimmy Butler SF	39.8	25.8	37.1	100%	35.8
Nikola Jovic PF	13.9	12.8	14.5	77%	17.2
Caleb Martin SG	26.3	27.0	21.2	30%	21.2
Terry Rozier PG	35.0	27.4	31.9	93%	32.8

Cleveland Cavaliers	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Jarrett Allen C	40.8	32.6	37.0	100%	35.7
Darius Garland PG	39.3	37.3	32.6	100%	30.9
Georges Niang PF	24.3	22.2	16.8	23%	25.4
Isaac Okoro SF	24.5	21.0	20.3	57%	21.9

Heat Notable Injuries

Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): Avg: 13.4pts, 2.5reb, 3.0ast, 28.1 minutes. Last game: 03/18/24. Impact: 4.2
Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.9pts, 1.9reb, 0.2ast, 13.3 minutes. Last game: 03/15/24. Impact: 1.5

Cavaliers Notable Injuries

Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG): Avg: 27.4pts, 5.3reb, 6.1ast, 35.4 minutes. Last game: 03/16/24. Impact: 6.8
Evan Mobley (PF/C): Avg: 15.6pts, 10.0reb, 3.1ast, 30.7 minutes. Last game: 03/05/24. Impact: 6.3
Dean Wade (PF): Avg: 5.3pts, 4.0reb, 0.8ast, 20.1 minutes. Last game: 03/08/24. Impact: 2.2
Damian Jones (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 7.1 minutes. Last game: 03/16/24. Impact: 1.9
Emoni Bates (SG): Avg: 2.1pts, 1.1reb, 0.6ast, 7.1 minutes. Last game: 03/10/24. Impact: 0.8
Isaiah Mobley (C): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.8reb, 0.7ast, 6.9 minutes. Last game: 03/13/24. Impact: 1.1
Pete Nance (PF): Avg: 0.0pts, 0.3reb, 0.0ast, 2.5 minutes. Last game: 03/10/24. Impact: 0.1

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Caris LeVert	CLE	Pts	15.5	18.6	+3.1	60%	30%	27%	27%	MIA	-1.1	#10
Jarrett Allen	CLE	Pts	15.5	17.7	+2.2	40%	60%	60%	60%	MIA	-4.9	#2
Georges Niang	CLE	Reb	4.5	4.9	+0.4	40%	30%	27%	27%	MIA	-0.7	#10
Darius Garland	CLE	Reb	2.5	2.8	+0.3	60%	60%	40%	40%	MIA	-0.3	#11

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#2	#22	#17	#2	-18.0%
PF	#8	#22	#9	#12	-1.9%
PG	#12	#16	#2	#6	-11.3%
SF	#28	#10	#10	#25	9.3%
SG	#10	#11	#16	#13	-3.2%

Cavaliers Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#8	#18	#2	#8	-7.5%
PF	#26	#19	#14	#23	6.3%
PG	#8	#5	#10	#4	-14.0%
SF	#3	#21	#4	#4	-15.1%
SG	#15	#18	#22	#21	2.5%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

106.2

108.7

Rebounds per Game

42.5

41.9

Assists per Game

24.5

29.5

Steals per Game

8.1

6.7

Blocks per Game

4.6

5.3

Shots per Game

85.5

84.6

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.2

14.6

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.2

53.3

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.6

38.2

Turnovers per Game

11.2

12.3

Fouls per Game

15.7

16.4

Recent Trends

Bam Adebayo (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 39.5% to 32.8, 23.5 min average previous 3 games.
Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.8% to 24.2, 37.1 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 45.8% to 12.1, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 44.2% to 30.9, 21.4 min average previous 3 games.
Terry Rozier (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 41.6% to 34.3, 24.2 min average previous 3 games.
Max Strus (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 73.5% to 33.7, 19.4 min average previous 3 games.
Dean Wade (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 60.2% to 28.1, 17.5 min average previous 3 games.