Heat vs Pistons Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Mar 15th 2024

Alright, hoop heads, buckle up for this one! The sizzling Miami Heat, boasting a respectable 35W-30L record, are jetting off to the Motor City to throw down with the Detroit Pistons, who are, well, let’s just say they’re still finding their groove at 13W-52L. The action’s set to explode at the Little Caesars Arena come 07:00PM EST – a match-up that’s got the Eastern conference standings in a bit of a hot mess. The Heat are just 2.5 games shy of conference domination, while the Pistons are lagging a tad behind, 29.0 games back to be precise. The bookies have crunched the numbers and the over/under is sitting pretty at 216.0. Miami’s looking hot to trot at -6.5, with Detroit holding the underdog line at 6.5. The Pistons are riding high after their recent 113-104 triumph over Toronto, while the Heat are looking to bounce back from their 88-100 stumble against Denver. So, whether you’re a Heat fan or a Pistons supporter, this game is set to be a real scorcher. Let’s just hope the Pistons don’t get too heated!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 15, 2024 07:00PM EST

Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	DET ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-300	+250	214.5	-6.5/6.5
Recent	-200	+150	216.0	-8.0/8.0
Difference	+100	-100	+1.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

17W-15L

66.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

7W-26L

33.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/05/24	Detroit Pistons DET	26	34	28	22	110	Over
03/05/24	Miami Heat MIA	36	25	32	25	118	Over
10/25/23	Detroit Pistons DET	29	18	28	27	102	Under
10/25/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	32	25	20	103	Under
04/04/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	28	21	38	118	Over
04/04/23	Detroit Pistons DET	27	25	27	26	105	Over
03/19/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	26	22	38	112	Under
03/19/23	Detroit Pistons DET	29	18	34	19	100	Under
12/06/22	Detroit Pistons DET	20	27	31	38	116	Under
12/06/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	25	23	23	96	Under
03/15/22	Detroit Pistons DET	22	29	22	25	98	Under
03/15/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	28	11	37	105	Under
12/23/21	Detroit Pistons DET	29	32	26	25	112	Over
12/23/21	Miami Heat MIA	29	26	33	27	115	Over
12/19/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	25	19	23	90	Under
12/19/21	Detroit Pistons DET	20	26	33	21	100	Under
11/23/21	Miami Heat MIA	20	26	21	33	100	Under
11/23/21	Detroit Pistons DET	25	28	23	16	92	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Pistons Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/13	@ DEN	88-100L	42	18	8	81
03/10	@ WAS	108-110L	51	20	13	96
03/08	vs OKL	100-107L	43	24	10	83
03/07	vs DAL	108-114L	37	30	10	82
03/05	@ DET	118-110W	42	27	9	85
03/02	@ UTA	126-120W	34	33	6	90
02/29	vs DEN	97-103L	45	21	14	84
02/27	vs POR	106-96W	34	29	18	70
02/26	vs SAC	121-110W	39	27	11	87
02/23	vs NOP	106-95W	46	20	14	82

Pistons Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/13	@ TOR	113-104W	58	27	21	88
03/11	@ CHA	114-97W	51	26	12	87
03/09	@ DAL	124-142L	56	27	19	101
03/07	@ BRO	118-112W	50	24	22	83
03/05	vs MIA	110-118L	42	26	10	90
03/03	vs ORL	91-113L	28	25	12	87
03/01	@ CLE	100-110L	42	24	8	89
02/27	vs CHI	105-95W	47	22	18	76
02/26	vs NYK	111-113L	42	25	17	79
02/24	@ ORL	109-112L	36	29	12	88

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.2	29.6	38.7	100%	38.1
Jimmy Butler SF	46.8	30.1	37.4	100%	36.1
Nikola Jovic PF	17.4	13.8	14.3	73%	17.2
Duncan Robinson SG	26.5	21.0	20.9	40%	27.4
Terry Rozier PG	37.0	29.1	33.6	93%	34.6

Detroit Pistons	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Cade Cunningham PG	42.5	46.4	41.9	93%	42.6
Jalen Duren C	35.8	36.8	34.7	93%	35.2
Simone Fontecchio SF	27.6	28.8	21.3	73%	20.0
Jaden Ivey SG	29.7	33.0	30.6	93%	31.0
Isaiah Stewart PF	24.1	21.7	23.2	93%	22.7

Heat Notable Injuries

Delon Wright (PG): Avg: 4.1pts, 1.8reb, 2.5ast, 14.2 minutes. Last game: 02/29/24. Impact: 1.5

Pistons Notable Injuries

Ausar Thompson (SF/PF): Avg: 8.9pts, 6.4reb, 1.9ast, 25.0 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 4.3
Quentin Grimes (SG/SF): Avg: 7.1pts, 2.0reb, 1.3ast, 20.2 minutes. Last game: 03/13/24. Impact: 2.5

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	21.5	25.6	+4.1	20%	40%	53%	53%	DET	-2.5	#5
Terry Rozier	MIA	Pts	17.5	19.4	+1.9	20%	30%	33%	33%	DET	+2.6	#27
Jalen Duren	DET	Reb	11.5	12.0	+0.5	40%	30%	40%	40%	MIA	-0.4	#13
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	10.5	10.9	+0.4	20%	10%	27%	27%	DET	+0.7	#20

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#2	#13	#16	#1	-23.8%
PF	#8	#23	#18	#19	-1.0%
PG	#12	#18	#5	#5	-10.8%
SF	#20	#8	#10	#16	-1.2%
SG	#12	#9	#16	#13	-2.5%

Pistons Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#18	#20	#23	#24	9.2%
PF	#6	#2	#16	#9	-4.7%
PG	#14	#25	#11	#22	4.8%
SF	#5	#12	#20	#6	-9.6%
SG	#27	#2	#18	#24	5.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

107.9

109.2

Rebounds per Game

41.5

45.1

Assists per Game

25.1

25.7

Steals per Game

7.8

7.9

Blocks per Game

4.5

5.2

Shots per Game

84.5

88.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.5

11.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.8

52.6

3-Pt Percentage per Game

38.0

33.5

Turnovers per Game

11.5

15.4

Fouls per Game

16.3

20.8

Recent Trends

Bam Adebayo (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.0% to 23.5, 35.6 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 36.2% to 21.4, 33.5 min average previous 3 games.
Terry Rozier (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 30.2% to 24.2, 34.7 min average previous 3 games.
Marcus Sasser (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 33.4% to 20.0, 15.0 min average previous 3 games.
James Wiseman (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 54.6% to 22.4, 14.5 min average previous 3 games.