Heat vs Pistons Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Mar 17th 2024

Get ready for a scorcher as the sizzling Miami Heat, just a few steps away from the top of the Eastern conference, roll into the Motor City to take on the Pistons, who’ve been stuck in the garage for most of the season. The Heat, fresh off a victory against these very Pistons, are looking to keep the flames alive at Little Caesars Arena today, with the tipoff set for the prime time of 03:00PM EST. The Pistons, on the other hand, are trying to spark something, anything, after their recent defeat against… well, you guessed it, the Heat. The betting lines are drawn, favoring the Heat with a -7.5, but the Pistons are not to be underestimated at home. The over/under is 214.5, so we’re all set for a game that promises to be as hot as a Miami beach and as tough as Detroit steel. So, buckle up, folks, because it’s going to be a heated affair with the Pistons firing on all cylinders!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: March 17, 2024 03:00PM EST

Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	DET ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-290	+240	215.0	-7.5/7.5
Recent	-270	+220	214.5	-6.5/6.5
Difference	+20	-20	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

18W-15L

73.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

7W-27L

27.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/15/24	Miami Heat MIA	27	29	28	24	108	Under
03/15/24	Detroit Pistons DET	28	26	18	23	95	Under
03/05/24	Detroit Pistons DET	26	34	28	22	110	Over
03/05/24	Miami Heat MIA	36	25	32	25	118	Over
10/25/23	Detroit Pistons DET	29	18	28	27	102	Under
10/25/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	32	25	20	103	Under
04/04/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	28	21	38	118	Over
04/04/23	Detroit Pistons DET	27	25	27	26	105	Over
03/19/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	26	22	38	112	Under
03/19/23	Detroit Pistons DET	29	18	34	19	100	Under
12/06/22	Detroit Pistons DET	20	27	31	38	116	Under
12/06/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	25	23	23	96	Under
03/15/22	Detroit Pistons DET	22	29	22	25	98	Under
03/15/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	28	11	37	105	Under
12/23/21	Detroit Pistons DET	29	32	26	25	112	Over
12/23/21	Miami Heat MIA	29	26	33	27	115	Over
12/19/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	25	19	23	90	Under
12/19/21	Detroit Pistons DET	20	26	33	21	100	Under
11/23/21	Miami Heat MIA	20	26	21	33	100	Under
11/23/21	Detroit Pistons DET	25	28	23	16	92	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Pistons Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/15	vs DET	108-95W	44	23	8	93
03/13	@ DEN	88-100L	42	18	8	81
03/10	@ WAS	108-110L	51	20	13	96
03/08	vs OKL	100-107L	43	24	10	83
03/07	vs DAL	108-114L	37	30	10	82
03/05	@ DET	118-110W	42	27	9	85
03/02	@ UTA	126-120W	34	33	6	90
02/29	vs DEN	97-103L	45	21	14	84
02/27	vs POR	106-96W	34	29	18	70
02/26	vs SAC	121-110W	39	27	11	87

Pistons Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
03/15	@ MIA	95-110L	48	27	17	85
03/13	@ TOR	113-104W	58	27	21	88
03/11	@ CHA	114-97W	51	26	12	87
03/09	@ DAL	124-142L	56	27	19	101
03/07	@ BRO	118-112W	50	24	22	83
03/05	vs MIA	110-118L	42	26	10	90
03/03	vs ORL	91-113L	28	25	12	87
03/01	@ CLE	100-110L	42	24	8	89
02/27	vs CHI	105-95W	47	22	18	76
02/26	vs NYK	111-113L	42	25	17	79

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.8	32.5	38.8	100%	38.3
Jimmy Butler SF	45.6	25.8	37.1	100%	35.8
Haywood Highsmith PF	9.4	2.8	11.2	27%	15.7
Duncan Robinson SG	25.9	21.2	21.4	43%	28.0
Terry Rozier PG	36.2	29.1	33.3	93%	34.3

Detroit Pistons	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Cade Cunningham PG	41.8	44.4	42.4	93%	43.2
Jalen Duren C	38.4	38.4	34.9	93%	35.4
Simone Fontecchio SF	26.5	29.0	21.9	73%	20.7
Jaden Ivey SG	29.5	33.9	30.8	93%	31.2
Isaiah Stewart PF	23.6	21.0	22.8	93%	22.4

Heat Notable Injuries

Nikola Jovic (PF/C): Avg: 5.9pts, 4.0reb, 1.8ast, 17.1 minutes. Last game: 03/15/24. Impact: 2.4
Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.9pts, 1.9reb, 0.2ast, 13.3 minutes. Last game: 03/15/24. Impact: 1.5

Pistons Notable Injuries

Ausar Thompson (SF/PF): Avg: 8.9pts, 6.4reb, 1.9ast, 25.0 minutes. Last game: 03/09/24. Impact: 4.3
Quentin Grimes (SG/SF): Avg: 7.1pts, 2.0reb, 1.3ast, 20.2 minutes. Last game: 03/13/24. Impact: 2.5
Tosan Evbuomwan (PF): Avg: 2.4pts, 2.3reb, 0.9ast, 13.0 minutes. Last game: 03/15/24. Impact: 0.9

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	21.5	25.0	+3.5	0%	40%	47%	47%	DET	-4.4	#2
Jalen Duren	DET	Pts	13.5	15.1	+1.6	60%	60%	53%	53%	MIA	-4.1	#3
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Reb	10.5	11.0	+0.5	20%	10%	27%	27%	DET	-0.2	#14
Simone Fontecchio	DET	Reb	4.5	4.8	+0.3	60%	30%	27%	27%	MIA	-0.7	#10

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#24	#16	#2	-17.0%
PF	#12	#22	#12	#17	-0.6%
PG	#11	#15	#2	#5	-12.1%
SF	#27	#10	#9	#24	9.1%
SG	#8	#9	#19	#12	-5.2%

Pistons Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#24	#14	#17	#25	8.4%
PF	#8	#3	#23	#11	-3.3%
PG	#14	#23	#14	#18	3.2%
SF	#2	#7	#14	#2	-26.1%
SG	#27	#5	#12	#24	4.9%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

107.8

108.8

Rebounds per Game

41.5

45.1

Assists per Game

24.7

25.8

Steals per Game

8.2

7.2

Blocks per Game

5.0

4.9

Shots per Game

84.8

86.8

3-Pointers Made per Game

11.1

11.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.3

53.6

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.9

33.4

Turnovers per Game

11.0

15.2

Fouls per Game

16.2

19.5

Recent Trends

Bam Adebayo (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 33.5% to 22.9, 34.4 min average previous 3 games.
Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 34.8% to 24.2, 37.1 min average previous 3 games.
Nikola Jovic (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 45.8% to 12.1, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Patty Mills (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 31.2% to 14.3, 10.9 min average previous 3 games.
Marcus Sasser (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 70.1% to 21.8, 12.8 min average previous 3 games.