Heat vs Warriors Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown as the Miami Heat blaze into the Chase Center to face off against the Golden State Warriors in what promises to be a pivotal first-round NBA Playoff game. With both teams hovering near .500, they’re itching to turn up the heat and carve out a victory that could shift the playoff dynamics in their favor. As the clock ticks down to an 11:00 PM EST tipoff, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the Warriors fresh off a fiery win and the Heat looking to reignite their spark after a recent stumble, tonight’s matchup is set to be a battle of resilience and strategy. So, as the Heat look to cook up a win and the Warriors aim to slice through the competition, expect nothing less than a full-court feast of basketball brilliance!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 07, 2025 11:00PM EST

Location: Chase Center, Golden State

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	GSW ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+320	-430	218.0	9.5/-9.5
Recent	+310	-415	219.0	9.5/-9.5
Difference	-10	+15	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

28W-26L

24.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

29W-26L

75.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/26/24	Golden State Warriors GSW	24	29	32	28	113	Under
03/26/24	Miami Heat MIA	26	29	20	17	92	Under
12/28/23	Miami Heat MIA	22	36	33	23	114	Under
12/28/23	Golden State Warriors GSW	25	26	25	26	102	Under
11/01/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	24	32	38	15	109	Over
11/01/22	Miami Heat MIA	33	25	28	30	116	Over
10/27/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	29	28	23	110	Over
10/27/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	31	32	29	31	123	Over
03/23/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	23	27	31	37	118	Over
03/23/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	27	30	24	104	Over
01/03/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	29	28	26	108	Over
01/03/22	Golden State Warriors GSW	33	26	30	26	115	Over

Heat Vs Over/Under

Warriors Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/06	vs SAC	118-123L	53	25	13	102
01/04	@ UTA	100-136L	32	25	15	80
01/02	@ IND	115-128L	39	34	14	75
01/01	@ NOP	119-108W	38	34	10	83
12/29	vs HOU	104-100W	52	21	14	84
12/28	vs ATL	110-120L	42	23	8	90
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75
12/20	@ OKL	97-104L	41	20	18	83
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83

Warriors Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/04	@ MEM	121-113W	29	32	18	84
01/02	@ PHI	139-105W	43	41	11	87
12/30	@ CLE	95-113L	55	20	14	99
12/28	@ PHX	109-105W	49	26	11	98
12/27	vs LAC	92-102L	47	24	14	95
12/25	@ LAL	113-115L	44	26	12	89
12/21	vs MIN	113-103W	45	30	10	87
12/19	vs MEM	93-144L	36	20	17	90
12/15	@ DAL	133-143L	37	39	10	103
12/11	vs HOU	90-91L	39	22	15	84

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.0	36.4	38.2	100%	38.6
Tyler Herro PG	45.0	38.0	40.2	100%	40.5
Haywood Highsmith SF	19.0	18.9	16.6	73%	17.4
Nikola Jovic PF	22.0	26.7	20.4	53%	23.0
Terry Rozier SG	30.0	23.9	24.5	57%	26.7

Golden State Warriors	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Stephen Curry PG	48.0	45.1	43.2	100%	43.6
Draymond Green PF	33.0	32.0	27.6	93%	27.3
Trayce Jackson-Davis C	30.0	33.2	21.9	80%	24.0
Dennis Schroder SG	29.0	24.9	31.2	100%	31.6
Andrew Wiggins SF	37.0	26.2	29.4	100%	29.8

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 19.7pts, 5.2reb, 4.8ast, 32.8 minutes. Last game: 01/02/25. Impact: 4.7
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.0reb, 1.5ast, 8.0 minutes. Last game: 01/04/25. Impact: 2.1

Warriors Notable Injuries

Jonathan Kuminga (PF): Avg: 16.4pts, 4.9reb, 2.1ast, 26.2 minutes. Last game: 01/04/25. Impact: 5.6
Brandin Podziemski (PG/SG): Avg: 8.8pts, 5.3reb, 3.5ast, 25.9 minutes. Last game: 12/28/24. Impact: 3.3
Gary Payton II (SF): Avg: 5.2pts, 2.7reb, 1.2ast, 14.7 minutes. Last game: 12/25/24. Impact: 2.3
Quinten Post (C): Avg: 1.0pts, 0.5reb, 0.5ast, 2.7 minutes. Last game: 12/30/24. Impact: 0.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	20.0	+3.5	60%	70%	53%	53%	GSW	-2.0	#3
Duncan Robinson	MIA	Pts	9.5	11.9	+2.4	60%	60%	53%	53%	GSW	+2.4	#28
Andrew Wiggins	GSW	Reb	5.5	6.4	+0.9	40%	30%	27%	27%	MIA	-0.1	#15
Buddy Hield	GSW	Ast	0.5	2.0	+1.5	60%	50%	53%	53%	MIA	-0.6	#4
Stephen Curry	GSW	Ast	5.5	5.9	+0.4	80%	60%	60%	60%	MIA	+1.1	#27
Tyler Herro	MIA	3Pt	3.5	4.0	+0.5	40%	40%	47%	47%	GSW	+0.5	#27

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#14	#19	#7	-7.9%
PF	#10	#17	#27	#17	-0.2%
PG	#9	#19	#27	#16	1.1%
SF	#27	#16	#12	#22	2.9%
SG	#14	#15	#4	#12	-4.0%

Warriors Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#10	#16	#17	#17	0.7%
PF	#3	#12	#19	#8	-5.0%
PG	#3	#8	#4	#1	-12.5%
SF	#21	#27	#21	#26	7.0%
SG	#28	#25	#27	#29	10.2%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

112.0

110.5

Rebounds per Game

42.7

45.4

Assists per Game

26.0

28.8

Steals per Game

9.0

8.9

Blocks per Game

3.5

5.2

Shots per Game

86.8

91.7

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.9

15.1

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.5

51.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.7

Turnovers per Game

12.6

13.8

Fouls per Game

16.9

19.2

Recent Trends

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF) is coming off a triple-double where he put up 16.0 pts, 12.0 reb, 10.0 ast against SAC
Alec Burks (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 51.7% to 11.1, 23.0 min average previous 3 games.
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.9% to 19.5, 33.1 min average previous 3 games.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 56.2% to 31.6, 20.3 min average previous 3 games.
Gary Payton II (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 44.0% to 10.6, 18.9 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Kel’el Ware (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 40.9% to 19.0, 13.5 min average previous 3 games.