Heat vs Rockets Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 5th 2024

Hey hoop-heads, get ready for some serious on-court combustion tonight as the Miami Heat, sitting pretty with a 42-34 record, blaze a trail to the Toyota Center, ready to scorch the Houston Rockets, who are hovering at a .500 season with 38 wins and 38 losses. With tipoff slated for 8PM EST, both teams are feeling the pressure; the Heat are just three games shy of the Eastern conference lead, while the Rockets are trailing by eight in the West. The bookies have set the over/under at 216.0, with Miami slightly favored at -2.0, and Houston playing the underdog at 2.0. Both teams are looking to bounce back from recent losses; the Rockets got blasted by the Golden State Warriors, while the Heat got cooled off by the Philadelphia 76ers. As the Heat and Rockets prepare for liftoff, we’re expecting a game that’s hotter than a Miami beach day and more explosive than a rocket launch!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 05, 2024 08:00PM EST

Location: Toyota Center, Houston

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	HOU ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-125	+105	213.5	-2.0/2.0
Recent	-140	+120	216.0	-2.5/2.5
Difference	-15	+15	+2.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

21W-16L

58.3% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

25W-13L

41.7% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
01/08/24	Houston Rockets HOU	27	32	23	31	113	Over
01/08/24	Miami Heat MIA	34	25	32	29	120	Over
02/10/23	Houston Rockets HOU	29	27	17	22	95	Under
02/10/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	17	22	97	Under
12/15/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	37	20	25	111	Over
12/15/22	Houston Rockets HOU	29	23	33	23	108	Over
03/07/22	Houston Rockets HOU	32	26	20	28	106	Over
03/07/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	37	28	33	123	Over
12/31/21	Miami Heat MIA	41	33	26	20	120	Over
12/31/21	Houston Rockets HOU	30	30	27	23	110	Over

Heat Vs Over/Under

Rockets Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/04	@ PHI	105-109L	51	24	15	94
04/02	@ NYK	109-99W	39	24	17	74
03/31	vs WAS	119-107W	42	22	13	81
03/29	@ POR	142-82W	44	41	8	93
03/26	@ GSW	92-113L	39	24	8	92
03/24	@ CLE	121-84W	44	29	9	83
03/22	@ NOP	88-111L	34	22	4	87
03/20	vs CLE	107-104W	37	19	7	83
03/18	vs PHI	91-98L	49	23	15	89
03/17	vs DET	104-101W	47	24	9	89

Rockets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
04/04	@ GSW	110-133L	29	23	12	86
04/02	vs MIN	106-113L	37	23	14	92
03/31	@ DAL	107-125L	43	22	10	92
03/29	vs UTA	101-100W	45	19	10	91
03/27	vs OKL	132-126W	50	25	16	104
03/25	@ POR	110-92W	45	19	8	93
03/23	@ UTA	147-119W	44	31	9	97
03/21	@ CHI	127-117W	49	27	14	93
03/19	vs WAS	137-114W	47	25	7	91
03/16	@ CLE	117-103W	48	28	9	98

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	43.0	42.0	38.2	100%	37.7
Jimmy Butler SF	43.2	30.4	37.6	100%	36.3
Nikola Jovic PF	19.2	23.0	15.8	90%	17.8
Terry Rozier PG	33.1	38.4	30.6	93%	31.4

Houston Rockets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Dillon Brooks PF	19.8	14.4	19.1	100%	18.9
Jalen Green SG	41.7	44.6	37.9	100%	37.3
Jabari Smith Jr. C	30.3	32.3	28.3	100%	28.1
Amen Thompson SF	33.0	33.6	29.2	57%	33.2
Fred VanVleet PG	39.0	38.1	37.2	93%	37.9

Heat Notable Injuries

Jamal Cain (SF): Avg: 4.4pts, 1.6reb, 0.5ast, 11.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 1.1
Patty Mills (PG/SG): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.1reb, 1.1ast, 13.2 minutes. Last game: 03/29/24. Impact: 2.1
Orlando Robinson (C): Avg: 2.6pts, 2.3reb, 1.0ast, 8.2 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.7
Cole Swider (PF): Avg: 2.8pts, 0.5reb, 0.3ast, 5.5 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.6
Alondes Williams (PG): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.2reb, 0.0ast, 2.9 minutes. Last game: 03/31/24. Impact: 0.2

Rockets Notable Injuries

Jae’Sean Tate (SF/PF): Avg: 4.1pts, 2.9reb, 1.0ast, 15.7 minutes. Last game: 04/04/24. Impact: 1.2
Boban Marjanovic (C): Avg: 2.5pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 4.5 minutes. Last game: 04/04/24. Impact: 0.9
Nate Williams (PG): Avg: 2.6pts, 1.0reb, 0.4ast, 5.6 minutes. Last game: 04/04/24. Impact: 0.7

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Jimmy Butler	MIA	Pts	19.5	23.5	+4.0	20%	20%	40%	40%	HOU	+3.3	#25
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	17.5	19.6	+2.1	60%	60%	47%	47%	HOU	-1.0	#9
Jalen Green	HOU	Reb	5.5	6.1	+0.6	60%	60%	47%	47%	MIA	+0.3	#21
Fred VanVleet	HOU	Reb	3.5	3.6	+0.1	60%	40%	47%	47%	MIA	+0.3	#21

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#16	#8	#3	-13.4%
PF	#1	#18	#1	#2	-14.6%
PG	#22	#11	#25	#18	4.9%
SF	#30	#13	#11	#28	19.6%
SG	#13	#21	#23	#14	-1.4%

Rockets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#9	#13	#9	#13	-2.0%
PF	#2	#20	#2	#4	-10.9%
PG	#20	#22	#28	#21	9.3%
SF	#25	#26	#27	#27	18.9%
SG	#29	#20	#1	#20	1.9%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

106.0

118.9

Rebounds per Game

42.9

43.1

Assists per Game

24.5

25.1

Steals per Game

8.2

8.6

Blocks per Game

3.6

4.4

Shots per Game

86.7

91.8

3-Pointers Made per Game

12.5

14.3

2-Pt Percentage per Game

52.7

55.1

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.3

36.6

Turnovers per Game

10.3

11.0

Fouls per Game

14.9

19.4

Recent Trends

Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.3% to 37.8, 28.6 min average previous 3 games.
Jock Landale (C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.3% to 17.8, 25.9 min average previous 3 games.
Jabari Smith Jr. (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 35.5% to 34.6, 25.5 min average previous 3 games.