Heat vs Rockets Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and watch the Rockets launch! Tonight, the sizzling Miami Heat are rolling into the Toyota Center with hopes of cooling down the blazing Houston Rockets in a pivotal first-round NBA Playoff clash. As the clock strikes 08:00 PM EST, the stakes couldn’t be higher with both teams looking to bounce back from narrow defeats and ignite their postseason ambitions. With the betting lines drawn and fans on the edge of their seats, this matchup is set to be a high-octane showdown. So, whether you’re in it for the fantasy points or the sheer thrill of the game, tonight’s face-off promises that sparks will fly as the Heat try to extinguish the Rockets’ fiery run!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: December 29, 2024 08:00PM EST

Location: Toyota Center, Houston

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	HOU ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+235	-285	217.0	7.0/-7.0
Recent	+235	-285	216.5	7.5/-7.5
Difference	0	0	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

27W-25L

29.9% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

36W-17L

70.1% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
04/05/24	Miami Heat MIA	27	37	29	26	119	Over
04/05/24	Houston Rockets HOU	27	32	24	21	104	Over
01/08/24	Houston Rockets HOU	27	32	23	31	113	Over
01/08/24	Miami Heat MIA	34	25	32	29	120	Over
02/10/23	Houston Rockets HOU	29	27	17	22	95	Under
02/10/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	30	17	22	97	Under
12/15/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	37	20	25	111	Over
12/15/22	Houston Rockets HOU	29	23	33	23	108	Over
03/07/22	Houston Rockets HOU	32	26	20	28	106	Over
03/07/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	37	28	33	123	Over
12/31/21	Miami Heat MIA	41	33	26	20	120	Over
12/31/21	Houston Rockets HOU	30	30	27	23	110	Over

Heat Vs Over/Under

Rockets Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/28	vs ATL	110-120L	42	23	8	90
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75
12/20	@ OKL	97-104L	41	20	18	83
12/12	@ TOR	114-104W	52	21	15	83
12/08	@ CLE	122-113W	47	27	11	86
12/07	@ PHX	121-111W	41	30	11	86
12/04	@ LAL	134-93W	52	42	15	90
12/02	vs BOS	89-108L	44	24	10	87
12/01	vs TOR	116-119L	45	25	14	88

Rockets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
12/27	@ MIN	112-113L	48	19	14	92
12/26	vs NOP	128-111W	54	19	15	97
12/22	vs TOR	114-110W	53	18	21	89
12/19	@ NOP	133-113W	42	34	11	87
12/14	vs OKL	96-111L	49	17	16	96
12/11	@ GSW	91-90W	36	23	16	83
12/08	vs LAC	117-106W	50	23	15	82
12/05	vs GSW	93-99L	45	20	8	93
12/03	vs SAC	111-120L	53	14	15	93
12/01	@ OKL	119-116W	51	20	10	92

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	47.0	37.2	38.5	100%	38.9
Tyler Herro PG	45.0	41.9	39.0	100%	39.4
Haywood Highsmith PF	15.0	13.0	16.0	57%	17.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF	25.0	19.7	20.0	23%	27.8
Duncan Robinson SG	23.0	20.2	16.2	50%	19.4

Houston Rockets	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Dillon Brooks SG	27.0	34.5	24.6	100%	25.0
Jalen Green SF	30.0	34.1	30.9	100%	31.3
Alperen Sengun C	45.0	42.5	43.1	100%	43.5
Jabari Smith Jr. PF	27.0	26.4	25.1	100%	25.5
Fred VanVleet PG	38.0	34.8	36.7	100%	37.0

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 20.0pts, 5.2reb, 4.8ast, 33.0 minutes. Last game: 12/20/24. Impact: 5.3
Dru Smith (PG): Avg: 6.2pts, 2.5reb, 1.8ast, 18.8 minutes. Last game: 12/21/24. Impact: 3.1

Rockets Notable Injuries

Jeff Green (PF/C): Avg: 6.3pts, 2.2reb, 0.9ast, 15.9 minutes. Last game: 12/26/24. Impact: 1.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	20.9	+4.4	80%	50%	47%	47%	HOU	-1.6	#6
Alec Burks	MIA	Pts	7.5	11.9	+4.4	40%	30%	53%	53%	HOU	-0.7	#12
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Reb	3.5	4.5	+1.0	40%	30%	47%	47%	HOU	+0.7	#26
Terry Rozier	MIA	Ast	2.5	3.7	+1.2	0%	20%	27%	27%	HOU	-0.4	#14

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#12	#14	#17	#12	-1.7%
PF	#7	#21	#28	#14	-0.9%
PG	#11	#13	#25	#13	-0.7%
SF	#23	#15	#16	#17	0.7%
SG	#5	#20	#10	#12	-4.7%

Rockets Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#2	#22	#1	#5	-10.3%
PF	#6	#1	#9	#2	-12.5%
PG	#20	#27	#14	#24	4.7%
SF	#2	#26	#1	#3	-12.5%
SG	#12	#14	#4	#9	-5.1%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

111.9

113.2

Rebounds per Game

42.5

49.8

Assists per Game

25.6

22.6

Steals per Game

9.2

8.7

Blocks per Game

3.2

5.7

Shots per Game

87.2

93.4

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.7

11.5

2-Pt Percentage per Game

51.8

52.7

3-Pt Percentage per Game

37.9

32.6

Turnovers per Game

12.2

13.2

Fouls per Game

17.2

19.3

Recent Trends

Josh Christopher (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.7% to 22.7, 16.4 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.