Heat vs Bucks Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and buck the trends as the Miami Heat, balancing on a .500 tightrope, roll into the Fiserv Forum to challenge the Milwaukee Bucks in what promises to be a sizzling first-round NBA Playoff clash tonight at 8:30 PM EST. Both teams are looking to shake off the playoff jitters, with Miami trying to ignite after a recent stumble against Portland, and Milwaukee aiming to build on their solid win over Philly. With the Bucks favored by a hoof and the scoreline predicted to gallop past the 226 mark, tonight’s matchup is more than just a game—it’s a battle for Eastern conference supremacy. So, as the ball gets tossed up, let’s see if the Heat can cook up a storm or if the Bucks stop here!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 23, 2025 08:30PM EST

Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	MIL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+250	-300	225.0	7.0/-7.0
Recent	+185	-225	226.0	7.5/-7.5
Difference	-65	+75	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

31W-28L

35.1% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

47W-17L

64.9% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
11/26/24	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	31	34	20	21	106	Under
11/26/24	Miami Heat MIA	20	31	29	23	103	Under
02/13/24	Miami Heat MIA	40	29	29	25	123	Under
02/13/24	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	28	24	24	21	97	Under
11/28/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	31	28	34	38	131	Over
11/28/23	Miami Heat MIA	22	40	35	27	124	Over
10/30/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	24	21	41	114	Over
10/30/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	28	34	35	25	122	Over
02/24/23	Miami Heat MIA	32	24	18	25	99	Over
02/24/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	42	31	22	33	128	Over
02/04/23	Miami Heat MIA	26	36	30	23	115	Over
02/04/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	34	28	32	29	123	Over
01/14/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	20	25	26	24	95	Under
01/14/23	Miami Heat MIA	28	25	24	34	111	Under
01/12/23	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	23	22	28	29	102	Under
01/12/23	Miami Heat MIA	14	31	33	30	108	Under
03/02/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	38	31	22	119	Over
03/02/22	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	36	28	29	27	120	Over
12/08/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	26	25	26	27	104	Under
12/08/21	Miami Heat MIA	24	20	39	30	113	Under
12/04/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	29	24	26	102	Push
12/04/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	34	35	36	19	124	Push
10/21/21	Milwaukee Bucks MIL	17	26	26	26	95	Over
10/21/21	Miami Heat MIA	40	32	33	32	137	Over

Heat Vs Over/Under

Bucks Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/21	@ POR	107-116L	45	26	8	93
01/19	@ SAS	128-107W	49	35	11	95
01/17	@ DEN	113-133L	41	30	8	91
01/15	vs LAL	108-117L	37	25	19	73
01/13	vs LAC	98-109L	49	22	15	85
01/11	vs POR	119-98W	43	31	10	92
01/09	vs UTA	97-92W	49	26	14	91
01/07	vs GSW	114-98W	48	32	9	91
01/06	vs SAC	118-123L	53	25	13	102
01/04	@ UTA	100-136L	32	25	15	80

Bucks Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/19	@ PHI	123-109W	48	31	6	87
01/17	@ TOR	130-112W	44	25	13	81
01/15	@ ORL	122-93W	49	24	21	72
01/14	@ SAC	130-115W	52	32	7	99
01/12	vs NYK	106-140L	39	22	14	94
01/10	vs ORL	109-106W	43	18	11	83
01/08	@ SAS	121-105W	57	26	10	92
01/06	vs TOR	128-104W	46	37	21	82
01/04	@ POR	102-105L	43	25	11	95
01/02	@ BRO	110-113L	46	21	14	90

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	38.0	30.1	37.8	100%	38.2
Tyler Herro PG	39.0	45.0	41.2	100%	41.5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF	29.0	22.6	21.6	30%	32.9
Duncan Robinson SG	22.0	22.2	20.6	63%	22.2
Kel’el Ware PF	38.0	35.4	17.0	4%	43.8

Milwaukee Bucks	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
G. Antetokounmpo PF	58.0	55.0	58.1	100%	58.5
Andre Jackson Jr. SG	13.0	10.8	10.8	93%	11.2
Damian Lillard PG	41.0	43.4	42.9	100%	43.3
Brook Lopez C	27.0	27.6	27.5	100%	27.9
Taurean Prince SF	14.0	14.3	15.6	80%	16.1

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 19.4pts, 5.1reb, 4.8ast, 32.7 minutes. Last game: 01/21/25. Impact: 4.5
Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/13/25. Impact: 2.2
Keshad Johnson (SF): Avg: 1.8pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 6.4 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 0.7
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 1.0pts, 0.4reb, 0.8ast, 4.2 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 1.4

Bucks Notable Injuries

Delon Wright (PG): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.8reb, 2.2ast, 16.1 minutes. Last game: 01/15/25. Impact: 1.3
AJ Green (PG/SG): Avg: 5.6pts, 1.6reb, 0.8ast, 14.9 minutes. Last game: 01/17/25. Impact: 2.5
Liam Robbins (C): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.8reb, 0.2ast, 4.4 minutes. Last game: 01/17/25. Impact: 0.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Kel’el Ware	MIA	Pts	14.5	17.4	+2.9	60%	30%	27%	27%	MIL	-3.5	#3
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	14.5	16.7	+2.2	20%	50%	53%	53%	MIL	+3.0	#29
Nikola Jovic	MIA	Reb	4.5	6.0	+1.5	20%	40%	40%	40%	MIL	-0.9	#4
Andre Jackson Jr.	MIL	Reb	2.5	3.5	+1.0	100%	70%	67%	67%	MIA	-0.5	#9
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	Ast	5.5	6.2	+0.7	40%	50%	40%	40%	MIA	+0.2	#17
Gary Trent Jr.	MIL	Ast	0.5	1.0	+0.5	100%	70%	60%	60%	MIA	-0.2	#13
Brook Lopez	MIL	3Pt	1.5	1.8	+0.3	40%	40%	53%	53%	MIA	-0.5	#3

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#4	#26	#7	#7	-6.5%
PF	#9	#22	#30	#18	0.9%
PG	#8	#17	#23	#12	-1.6%
SF	#25	#29	#17	#23	6.0%
SG	#15	#9	#13	#12	-3.0%

Bucks Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#14	#5	#4	-10.0%
PF	#29	#2	#13	#13	-0.4%
PG	#12	#28	#7	#11	-1.7%
SF	#6	#4	#11	#6	-12.0%
SG	#20	#29	#20	#22	3.6%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

111.3

114.7

Rebounds per Game

43.8

43.9

Assists per Game

26.9

25.9

Steals per Game

7.6

7.8

Blocks per Game

3.8

5.0

Shots per Game

86.8

86.3

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.9

14.4

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.2

55.2

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.5

39.7

Turnovers per Game

12.3

13.4

Fouls per Game

15.4

18.9

Recent Trends

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.2% to 29.3, 19.5 min average previous 3 games.
Andre Jackson Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 37.9% to 16.3, 11.8 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Duncan Robinson (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 42.2% to 29.9, 21.0 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Kel’el Ware (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.4% to 29.3, 22.1 min average previous 3 games.