Heat vs Bucks Game Breakdown

Heat
21W-21L

January 23, 2025
08:30PM EST
Odds: 226.0 o/u
Bucks
24W-17L


Get ready to turn up the heat and buck the trends as the Miami Heat, balancing on a .500 tightrope, roll into the Fiserv Forum to challenge the Milwaukee Bucks in what promises to be a sizzling first-round NBA Playoff clash tonight at 8:30 PM EST. Both teams are looking to shake off the playoff jitters, with Miami trying to ignite after a recent stumble against Portland, and Milwaukee aiming to build on their solid win over Philly. With the Bucks favored by a hoof and the scoreline predicted to gallop past the 226 mark, tonight’s matchup is more than just a game—it’s a battle for Eastern conference supremacy. So, as the ball gets tossed up, let’s see if the Heat can cook up a storm or if the Bucks stop here!
Game Breakdown
Game Time: January 23, 2025 08:30PM EST
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Vegas Odds
MIA ML | MIL ML | Over/Under | Line | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Open | +250 | -300 | 225.0 | 7.0/-7.0 |
Recent | +185 | -225 | 226.0 | 7.5/-7.5 |
Difference | -65 | +75 | +1.0 | – |
Team Performance

35.1% Win Probability

64.9% Win Probability
Previous Matchups
Date | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | O/U | ATS | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/26/24 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 31 | 34 | 20 | 21 | 00 | 106 | Under | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 20 | 31 | 29 | 23 | 00 | 103 | |||
02/13/24 | Miami Heat MIA | 40 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 00 | 123 | Under | ![]() |
Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 28 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 00 | 97 | |||
11/28/23 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 31 | 28 | 34 | 38 | 00 | 131 | Over | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 22 | 40 | 35 | 27 | 00 | 124 | |||
10/30/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 24 | 21 | 41 | 00 | 114 | Over | ![]() |
Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 28 | 34 | 35 | 25 | 00 | 122 | |||
02/24/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 32 | 24 | 18 | 25 | 00 | 99 | Over | ![]() |
Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 42 | 31 | 22 | 33 | 00 | 128 | |||
02/04/23 | Miami Heat MIA | 26 | 36 | 30 | 23 | 00 | 115 | Over | ![]() |
Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 28 | 32 | 29 | 00 | 123 | |||
01/14/23 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 20 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 00 | 95 | Under | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 25 | 24 | 34 | 00 | 111 | |||
01/12/23 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 23 | 22 | 28 | 29 | 00 | 102 | Under | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 14 | 31 | 33 | 30 | 00 | 108 | |||
03/02/22 | Miami Heat MIA | 28 | 38 | 31 | 22 | 00 | 119 | Over | ![]() |
Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 36 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 00 | 120 | |||
12/08/21 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 26 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 00 | 104 | Under | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 24 | 20 | 39 | 30 | 00 | 113 | |||
12/04/21 | Miami Heat MIA | 23 | 29 | 24 | 26 | 00 | 102 | Push | ![]() |
Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 34 | 35 | 36 | 19 | 00 | 124 | |||
10/21/21 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 17 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 00 | 95 | Over | ![]() |
Miami Heat MIA | 40 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 00 | 137 |
Heat Vs Over/Under
Bucks Vs Over/Under
Heat Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01/21 | @ POR | 107-116L | 45 | 26 | 8 | 93 |
01/19 | @ SAS | 128-107W | 49 | 35 | 11 | 95 |
01/17 | @ DEN | 113-133L | 41 | 30 | 8 | 91 |
01/15 | vs LAL | 108-117L | 37 | 25 | 19 | 73 |
01/13 | vs LAC | 98-109L | 49 | 22 | 15 | 85 |
01/11 | vs POR | 119-98W | 43 | 31 | 10 | 92 |
01/09 | vs UTA | 97-92W | 49 | 26 | 14 | 91 |
01/07 | vs GSW | 114-98W | 48 | 32 | 9 | 91 |
01/06 | vs SAC | 118-123L | 53 | 25 | 13 | 102 |
01/04 | @ UTA | 100-136L | 32 | 25 | 15 | 80 |
Bucks Recent Games
Date | vsOpp | Result | Reb | Ast | Tov | Shots |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01/19 | @ PHI | 123-109W | 48 | 31 | 6 | 87 |
01/17 | @ TOR | 130-112W | 44 | 25 | 13 | 81 |
01/15 | @ ORL | 122-93W | 49 | 24 | 21 | 72 |
01/14 | @ SAC | 130-115W | 52 | 32 | 7 | 99 |
01/12 | vs NYK | 106-140L | 39 | 22 | 14 | 94 |
01/10 | vs ORL | 109-106W | 43 | 18 | 11 | 83 |
01/08 | @ SAS | 121-105W | 57 | 26 | 10 | 92 |
01/06 | vs TOR | 128-104W | 46 | 37 | 21 | 82 |
01/04 | @ POR | 102-105L | 43 | 25 | 11 | 95 |
01/02 | @ BRO | 110-113L | 46 | 21 | 14 | 90 |
Starting Lineups
Miami Heat | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
38.0 | 30.1 | 37.8 | 100% | 38.2 | |
Tyler Herro
PG
|
39.0 | 45.0 | 41.2 | 100% | 41.5 |
29.0 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 30% | 32.9 | |
22.0 | 22.2 | 20.6 | 63% | 22.2 | |
Kel’el Ware
PF
|
38.0 | 35.4 | 17.0 | 4% | 43.8 |
Milwaukee Bucks | Proj | L5 | L15 | S% | S/DFS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
58.0 | 55.0 | 58.1 | 100% | 58.5 | |
13.0 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 93% | 11.2 | |
41.0 | 43.4 | 42.9 | 100% | 43.3 | |
27.0 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 100% | 27.9 | |
14.0 | 14.3 | 15.6 | 80% | 16.1 |
Heat Notable Injuries
- Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 19.4pts, 5.1reb, 4.8ast, 32.7 minutes. Last game: 01/21/25. Impact: 4.5
- Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/13/25. Impact: 2.2
- Keshad Johnson (SF): Avg: 1.8pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 6.4 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 0.7
- Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 1.0pts, 0.4reb, 0.8ast, 4.2 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 1.4
Bucks Notable Injuries
- Delon Wright (PG): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.8reb, 2.2ast, 16.1 minutes. Last game: 01/15/25. Impact: 1.3
- AJ Green (PG/SG): Avg: 5.6pts, 1.6reb, 0.8ast, 14.9 minutes. Last game: 01/17/25. Impact: 2.5
- Liam Robbins (C): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.8reb, 0.2ast, 4.4 minutes. Last game: 01/17/25. Impact: 0.4
Top Player Props
This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.
Stat | Over % | Opposing Defense/Game | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Team | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | L5 | L10 | L15 | L30 | Opp | Stat | Rank |
Kel’el Ware | MIA | Pts | 14.5 | 17.4 | +2.9 | 60% | 30% | 27% | 27% | MIL | -3.5 | #3 |
Bam Adebayo | MIA | Pts | 14.5 | 16.7 | +2.2 | 20% | 50% | 53% | 53% | MIL | +3.0 | #29 |
Nikola Jovic | MIA | Reb | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | 20% | 40% | 40% | 40% | MIL | -0.9 | #4 |
Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | Reb | 2.5 | 3.5 | +1.0 | 100% | 70% | 67% | 67% | MIA | -0.5 | #9 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | Ast | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.7 | 40% | 50% | 40% | 40% | MIA | +0.2 | #17 |
Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | Ast | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | 100% | 70% | 60% | 60% | MIA | -0.2 | #13 |
Brook Lopez | MIL | 3Pt | 1.5 | 1.8 | +0.3 | 40% | 40% | 53% | 53% | MIA | -0.5 | #3 |
Heat Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #4 | #26 | #7 | #7 | -6.5% |
PF | #9 | #22 | #30 | #18 | 0.9% |
PG | #8 | #17 | #23 | #12 | -1.6% |
SF | #25 | #29 | #17 | #23 | 6.0% |
SG | #15 | #9 | #13 | #12 | -3.0% |
Bucks Defense vs
Position | Pts | Reb | Ast | Overall | vs NBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C | #3 | #14 | #5 | #4 | -10.0% |
PF | #29 | #2 | #13 | #13 | -0.4% |
PG | #12 | #28 | #7 | #11 | -1.7% |
SF | #6 | #4 | #11 | #6 | -12.0% |
SG | #20 | #29 | #20 | #22 | 3.6% |

Team Comparison

Recent Trends
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
- Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.2% to 29.3, 19.5 min average previous 3 games.
- Andre Jackson Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 37.9% to 16.3, 11.8 min average previous 3 games.
- Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
- Duncan Robinson (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 42.2% to 29.9, 21.0 min average previous 3 games.
- Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
- Kel’el Ware (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.4% to 29.3, 22.1 min average previous 3 games. The Heat have a 2-game losing streak on the road. The Bucks have a 4-game winning streak at home. Overall, they are on a 4-game winning streak.
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