Heat vs Bucks Game Breakdown

Miami Heat

Heat

21W-21L

Miami Heat

January 23, 2025

08:30PM EST

Odds: 226.0 o/u

Bucks

24W-17L

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks

Get ready to turn up the heat and buck the trends as the Miami Heat, balancing on a .500 tightrope, roll into the Fiserv Forum to challenge the Milwaukee Bucks in what promises to be a sizzling first-round NBA Playoff clash tonight at 8:30 PM EST. Both teams are looking to shake off the playoff jitters, with Miami trying to ignite after a recent stumble against Portland, and Milwaukee aiming to build on their solid win over Philly. With the Bucks favored by a hoof and the scoreline predicted to gallop past the 226 mark, tonight’s matchup is more than just a game—it’s a battle for Eastern conference supremacy. So, as the ball gets tossed up, let’s see if the Heat can cook up a storm or if the Bucks stop here!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 23, 2025 08:30PM EST

Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

Vegas Odds

MIA ML MIL ML Over/Under Line
Open +250 -300 225.0 7.0/-7.0
Recent +185 -225 226.0 7.5/-7.5
Difference -65 +75 +1.0

Team Performance

mia Team Logo
LAST 10
4W-6L
AWAY
31W-28L

35.1% Win Probability

mil Team Logo
LAST 10
7W-3L
HOME
47W-17L

64.9% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT Final O/U ATS
11/26/24 Milwaukee Bucks MIL 31 34 20 21 00 106 Under
Miami Heat MIA 20 31 29 23 00 103
02/13/24 Miami Heat MIA 40 29 29 25 00 123 Under
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 28 24 24 21 00 97
11/28/23 Milwaukee Bucks MIL 31 28 34 38 00 131 Over
Miami Heat MIA 22 40 35 27 00 124
10/30/23 Miami Heat MIA 28 24 21 41 00 114 Over
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 28 34 35 25 00 122
02/24/23 Miami Heat MIA 32 24 18 25 00 99 Over
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 42 31 22 33 00 128
02/04/23 Miami Heat MIA 26 36 30 23 00 115 Over
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 34 28 32 29 00 123
01/14/23 Milwaukee Bucks MIL 20 25 26 24 00 95 Under
Miami Heat MIA 28 25 24 34 00 111
01/12/23 Milwaukee Bucks MIL 23 22 28 29 00 102 Under
Miami Heat MIA 14 31 33 30 00 108
03/02/22 Miami Heat MIA 28 38 31 22 00 119 Over
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 36 28 29 27 00 120
12/08/21 Milwaukee Bucks MIL 26 25 26 27 00 104 Under
Miami Heat MIA 24 20 39 30 00 113
12/04/21 Miami Heat MIA 23 29 24 26 00 102 Push
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 34 35 36 19 00 124
10/21/21 Milwaukee Bucks MIL 17 26 26 26 00 95 Over
Miami Heat MIA 40 32 33 32 00 137

Heat Vs Over/Under

Bucks Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date vsOpp Result Reb Ast Tov Shots
01/21 @ POR 107-116L 45 26 8 93
01/19 @ SAS 128-107W 49 35 11 95
01/17 @ DEN 113-133L 41 30 8 91
01/15 vs LAL 108-117L 37 25 19 73
01/13 vs LAC 98-109L 49 22 15 85
01/11 vs POR 119-98W 43 31 10 92
01/09 vs UTA 97-92W 49 26 14 91
01/07 vs GSW 114-98W 48 32 9 91
01/06 vs SAC 118-123L 53 25 13 102
01/04 @ UTA 100-136L 32 25 15 80

Bucks Recent Games

Date vsOpp Result Reb Ast Tov Shots
01/19 @ PHI 123-109W 48 31 6 87
01/17 @ TOR 130-112W 44 25 13 81
01/15 @ ORL 122-93W 49 24 21 72
01/14 @ SAC 130-115W 52 32 7 99
01/12 vs NYK 106-140L 39 22 14 94
01/10 vs ORL 109-106W 43 18 11 83
01/08 @ SAS 121-105W 57 26 10 92
01/06 vs TOR 128-104W 46 37 21 82
01/04 @ POR 102-105L 43 25 11 95
01/02 @ BRO 110-113L 46 21 14 90

Starting Lineups

Heat Notable Injuries

  • Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 19.4pts, 5.1reb, 4.8ast, 32.7 minutes. Last game: 01/21/25. Impact: 4.5
  • Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.8ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 01/13/25. Impact: 2.2
  • Keshad Johnson (SF): Avg: 1.8pts, 1.8reb, 0.4ast, 6.4 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 0.7
  • Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 1.0pts, 0.4reb, 0.8ast, 4.2 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 1.4

Bucks Notable Injuries

  • Delon Wright (PG): Avg: 4.0pts, 1.8reb, 2.2ast, 16.1 minutes. Last game: 01/15/25. Impact: 1.3
  • AJ Green (PG/SG): Avg: 5.6pts, 1.6reb, 0.8ast, 14.9 minutes. Last game: 01/17/25. Impact: 2.5
  • Liam Robbins (C): Avg: 0.8pts, 0.8reb, 0.2ast, 4.4 minutes. Last game: 01/17/25. Impact: 0.4

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

Heat Defense vs

Position Pts Reb Ast Overall vs NBA
C #4 #26 #7 #7 -6.5%
PF #9 #22 #30 #18 0.9%
PG #8 #17 #23 #12 -1.6%
SF #25 #29 #17 #23 6.0%
SG #15 #9 #13 #12 -3.0%

Bucks Defense vs

Position Pts Reb Ast Overall vs NBA
C #3 #14 #5 #4 -10.0%
PF #29 #2 #13 #13 -0.4%
PG #12 #28 #7 #11 -1.7%
SF #6 #4 #11 #6 -12.0%
SG #20 #29 #20 #22 3.6%
Team Logo

Team Comparison

Team Logo
Points per Game
111.3
114.7
Rebounds per Game
43.8
43.9
Assists per Game
26.9
25.9
Steals per Game
7.6
7.8
Blocks per Game
3.8
5.0
Shots per Game
86.8
86.3
3-Pointers Made per Game
13.9
14.4
2-Pt Percentage per Game
54.2
55.2
3-Pt Percentage per Game
36.5
39.7
Turnovers per Game
12.3
13.4
Fouls per Game
15.4
18.9

Recent Trends

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF/C) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
  • Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.2% to 29.3, 19.5 min average previous 3 games.
  • Andre Jackson Jr. (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 37.9% to 16.3, 11.8 min average previous 3 games.
  • Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
  • Duncan Robinson (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 42.2% to 29.9, 21.0 min average previous 3 games.
  • Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
  • Kel’el Ware (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 32.4% to 29.3, 22.1 min average previous 3 games.
  • The Heat have a 2-game losing streak on the road. The Bucks have a 4-game winning streak at home. Overall, they are on a 4-game winning streak.
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