Heat vs Thunder Game Breakdown

Get ready to turn up the heat and feel the thunder tonight as the Miami Heat blaze into the Paycom Center, looking to cool down the sizzling Oklahoma City Thunder in a first-round playoff clash that promises more fireworks than the Fourth of July! With the clock set for a 9:00 PM EST showdown, the stakes are sky-high. Both teams are neck and neck in their conference standings, making tonight not just a game, but a battle for supremacy. Miami, licking their wounds from a recent tussle with Boston, are hungry to bounce back, while OKC rides the high of a commanding victory over New Orleans. With the scoreline predictions buzzing and fans on the edge of their seats, tonight’s matchup is all set to be a scorcher. So, will the Heat withstand the storm, or will the Thunder roll on? Tune in as these two titans clash in a game that’s sure to be electric!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: February 12, 2025 09:00PM EST

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	OKL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+475	-700	218.0	12.5/-12.5
Recent	+550	-850	219.5	13.5/-13.5
Difference	+75	-150	+1.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

33W-31L

15.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

8W-2L

HOME

53W-10L

84.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
12/20/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	30	20	31	23	104	Under
12/20/24	Miami Heat MIA	25	22	23	27	97	Under
03/08/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	28	16	27	100	Under
03/08/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	27	20	30	30	107	Under
01/10/24	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	29	36	34	29	128	Over
01/10/24	Miami Heat MIA	35	34	27	24	120	Over
01/10/23	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	30	32	23	111	Over
01/10/23	Miami Heat MIA	31	32	26	23	112	Over
12/14/22	Miami Heat MIA	31	33	22	24	110	Under
12/14/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	31	21	32	24	108	Under
03/18/22	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	26	28	25	29	108	Over
03/18/22	Miami Heat MIA	27	42	34	17	120	Over
11/15/21	Miami Heat MIA	23	20	31	29	103	Under
11/15/21	Oklahoma City Thunder OKL	24	19	24	23	90	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Thunder Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/10	@ BOS	85-103L	51	21	4	92
02/07	vs BRO	86-102L	39	23	14	90
02/05	vs PHI	108-101W	54	25	22	83
02/04	vs CHI	124-133L	44	29	13	90
02/01	vs SAS	105-103W	52	30	13	89
01/29	@ CLE	106-126L	35	27	12	83
01/27	@ ORL	125-119W	43	34	16	92
01/23	vs MIL	96-125L	50	26	10	92
01/21	@ POR	107-116L	45	26	8	93
01/19	@ SAS	128-107W	49	35	11	95

Thunder Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
02/10	@ NOP	137-101W	45	29	10	95
02/08	vs MEM	125-112W	55	29	8	105
02/07	@ TOR	121-109W	44	26	12	84
02/05	@ PHX	140-109W	46	24	5	102
02/03	@ MIL	125-96W	55	28	17	99
02/01	@ SAC	144-110W	70	37	11	107
01/29	vs GSW	109-116L	50	21	11	99
01/26	vs POR	118-108W	43	24	7	89
01/23	@ DAL	115-121L	33	26	12	88
01/22	@ UTA	123-114W	39	20	10	95

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo PF	41.0	44.0	38.3	100%	38.7
Tyler Herro PG	42.0	39.6	41.5	100%	41.8
Duncan Robinson SG	13.0	10.8	19.2	73%	21.0
Kel’el Ware C	29.0	27.9	20.7	30%	30.6
Andrew Wiggins SF	34.0	35.0	31.6	100%	32.0

Oklahoma City Thunder	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Luguentz Dort SG	18.0	21.4	20.6	100%	21.0
S. Gilgeous-Alexander PG	49.0	51.1	53.4	100%	53.8
Isaiah Hartenstein C	34.0	28.2	34.4	100%	33.4
Aaron Wiggins SF	23.0	32.0	21.3	33%	28.8
Jalen Williams PF	37.0	37.6	38.8	100%	39.1

Heat Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.7pts, 5.5reb, 1.8ast, 14.8 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 1.7
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): Avg: 6.4pts, 3.2reb, 1.1ast, 22.4 minutes. Last game: 02/07/25. Impact: 2.1
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 0.9pts, 0.4reb, 0.6ast, 3.7 minutes. Last game: 01/29/25. Impact: 1.0

Thunder Notable Injuries

Chet Holmgren (PF/C): Avg: 16.4pts, 7.7reb, 2.4ast, 29.7 minutes. Last game: 02/10/25. Impact: 5.3
Alex Caruso GTD (PG/SF): Avg: 8.9pts, 3.5reb, 3.2ast, 25.8 minutes. Last game: 02/10/25. Impact: 3.3
Cason Wallace (PG/SG): Avg: 6.7pts, 2.6reb, 1.7ast, 22.6 minutes. Last game: 02/01/25. Impact: 3.3
Jaylin Williams GTD (C): Avg: 4.5pts, 4.0reb, 1.8ast, 14.2 minutes. Last game: 02/10/25. Impact: 3.9
Ousmane Dieng (PF/C): Avg: 3.7pts, 1.9reb, 1.0ast, 10.7 minutes. Last game: 02/05/25. Impact: 1.8
Branden Carlson (C): Avg: 2.8pts, 1.4reb, 0.3ast, 5.8 minutes. Last game: 02/10/25. Impact: 1.2

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Andrew Wiggins	MIA	Pts	15.5	18.6	+3.1	80%	80%	67%	67%	OKL	-2.6	#2
Tyler Herro	MIA	Pts	21.5	23.4	+1.9	60%	60%	67%	67%	OKL	-2.6	#2
Aaron Wiggins	OKL	Reb	3.5	4.1	+0.6	40%	40%	47%	47%	MIA	-0.6	#5

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#9	#27	#1	#9	-4.0%
PF	#17	#20	#25	#20	1.8%
PG	#6	#22	#27	#19	0.1%
SF	#13	#26	#11	#20	3.1%
SG	#19	#5	#4	#10	-1.4%

Thunder Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#7	#13	#3	#3	-12.3%
PF	#11	#1	#6	#2	-11.6%
PG	#19	#10	#5	#5	-5.7%
SF	#4	#16	#6	#3	-8.2%
SG	#2	#23	#16	#2	-8.0%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

107.4

120.8

Rebounds per Game

44.0

44.7

Assists per Game

26.4

26.7

Steals per Game

6.9

9.9

Blocks per Game

4.0

4.8

Shots per Game

86.8

92.1

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.4

14.1

2-Pt Percentage per Game

54.5

57.0

3-Pt Percentage per Game

34.2

37.0

Turnovers per Game

13.0

11.2

Fouls per Game

15.0

20.7

Recent Trends

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG) is on a notable streak, exceeding 30 points in 2 consecutive games.
Kyle Anderson (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 32.2% to 12.3, 18.2 min average previous 3 games.
Alec Burks (PG/SG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.2% to 19.2, 12.8 min average previous 3 games.
Alex Caruso (PG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 61.5% to 21.7, 13.4 min average previous 3 games.
Chet Holmgren (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 37.3% to 17.4, 27.7 min average previous 3 games.
Pelle Larsson (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 37.4% to 15.7, 11.4 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.