Heat vs Trail Blazers Game Breakdown

Get ready for some sizzling NBA action as the Miami Heat, fresh off a fiery victory, blaze their way into the Moda Center to turn up the heat against the Portland Trail Blazers, who are looking to reignite after their recent fizzle against Dallas. It’s a late-night showdown with an 11:00 PM EST tipoff that promises to ramp up the intensity of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, where we’ve seen more blowouts than a broken hairdryer. With the Heat just a breath away from the top in the Eastern Conference and the Blazers trying to find their spark in the West, tonight’s clash is more than just a game—it’s a battle of wills on the hardwood. As the over/under teeters at a tantalizing 219.5, will the Heat continue to burn bright, or will the Blazers stoke the flames of an upset? It’s time to see if Miami can keep the fire roaring or if Portland will rise from the ashes in this fiery face-off!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: January 11, 2025 11:00PM EST

Location: Moda Center, Portland

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	POR ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-175	+150	218.5	-4.0/4.0
Recent	-135	+115	219.5	-4.0/4.0
Difference	+40	-35	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

30W-26L

57.4% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

18W-38L

42.6% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
03/29/24	Portland Trail Blazers POR	19	21	23	19	82	Over
03/29/24	Miami Heat MIA	29	45	33	35	142	Over
02/27/24	Miami Heat MIA	15	31	34	26	106	Under
02/27/24	Portland Trail Blazers POR	28	28	20	20	96	Under
11/07/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	28	25	20	37	110	Under
11/07/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	32	21	26	107	Under
10/26/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	33	33	25	119	Under
10/26/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	31	25	25	17	98	Under
01/19/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	26	30	24	12	92	Under
01/19/22	Miami Heat MIA	23	35	20	26	104	Under
01/05/22	Miami Heat MIA	30	28	25	32	115	Over
01/05/22	Portland Trail Blazers POR	23	24	33	29	109	Over

Heat Vs Over/Under

Trail Blazers Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/09	vs UTA	97-92W	49	26	14	91
01/07	vs GSW	114-98W	48	32	9	91
01/06	vs SAC	118-123L	53	25	13	102
01/04	@ UTA	100-136L	32	25	15	80
01/02	@ IND	115-128L	39	34	14	75
01/01	@ NOP	119-108W	38	34	10	83
12/29	vs HOU	104-100W	52	21	14	84
12/28	vs ATL	110-120L	42	23	8	90
12/26	vs ORL	89-88W	35	21	20	76
12/21	vs ORL	114-121L	38	16	14	75

Trail Blazers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/09	vs DAL	111-117L	43	24	12	93
01/08	vs NOP	119-100W	44	24	13	88
01/06	vs DET	115-118L	38	32	16	90
01/04	vs MIL	105-102W	55	21	17	85
01/02	vs LAL	106-114L	42	24	18	80
12/30	@ PHI	103-125L	33	23	24	77
12/28	@ DAL	126-122W	50	27	14	92
12/26	@ UTA	122-120W	43	26	11	89
12/21	vs SAS	94-114L	44	21	13	96
12/19	@ DEN	126-124W	45	29	10	97

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo C	45.0	36.3	39.0	100%	39.4
Tyler Herro PG	44.0	35.5	41.0	100%	41.4
Haywood Highsmith PF	18.0	16.9	16.8	80%	17.4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. SF	30.0	32.3	21.7	27%	33.8
Terry Rozier SG	28.0	22.8	23.2	57%	24.4

Portland Trail Blazers	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Deni Avdija PF	36.0	35.4	28.9	43%	30.8
Deandre Ayton C	36.0	26.9	33.4	100%	33.8
Toumani Camara SF	24.0	27.0	22.6	100%	23.0
Shaedon Sharpe SG	32.0	35.1	28.8	83%	30.8
Anfernee Simons PG	38.0	41.0	30.9	100%	31.3

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): Avg: 19.7pts, 5.2reb, 4.8ast, 32.8 minutes. Last game: 01/02/25. Impact: 4.7
Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.9pts, 5.6reb, 1.9ast, 15.1 minutes. Last game: 12/29/24. Impact: 2.2
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 1.7pts, 0.7reb, 1.0ast, 5.5 minutes. Last game: 01/07/25. Impact: 1.9

Trail Blazers Notable Injuries

Jerami Grant (PF): Avg: 18.9pts, 3.6reb, 2.6ast, 33.5 minutes. Last game: 12/28/24. Impact: 4.5
Robert Williams (PF/C): Avg: 6.7pts, 5.4reb, 0.9ast, 17.6 minutes. Last game: 01/08/25. Impact: 2.8
Duop Reath (C): Avg: 7.8pts, 3.1reb, 0.9ast, 15.5 minutes. Last game: 01/08/25. Impact: 1.0
Bryce McGowens (SG): Avg: 4.7pts, 1.6reb, 0.8ast, 14.1 minutes. Last game: 12/30/24. Impact: 0.9
Rayan Rupert (SG/SF): Avg: 3.6pts, 2.0reb, 1.2ast, 13.7 minutes. Last game: 01/08/25. Impact: 0.8

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Deandre Ayton	POR	Pts	12.5	16.2	+3.7	20%	50%	60%	60%	MIA	-3.5	#3
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	16.5	19.9	+3.4	60%	60%	60%	60%	POR	-0.1	#18

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#3	#18	#6	#5	-10.7%
PF	#8	#21	#27	#17	0.1%
PG	#12	#18	#22	#16	0.5%
SF	#23	#16	#14	#19	3.2%
SG	#10	#19	#7	#7	-5.6%

Trail Blazers Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#19	#24	#22	#23	5.1%
PF	#18	#9	#4	#15	-1.2%
PG	#15	#19	#20	#20	2.1%
SF	#14	#14	#21	#16	-0.7%
SG	#27	#2	#18	#22	4.7%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

111.7

109.6

Rebounds per Game

43.6

42.9

Assists per Game

26.2

24.1

Steals per Game

8.6

8.0

Blocks per Game

3.5

5.9

Shots per Game

87.2

88.3

3-Pointers Made per Game

13.8

13.1

2-Pt Percentage per Game

53.7

53.8

3-Pt Percentage per Game

35.9

35.2

Turnovers per Game

12.2

15.6

Fouls per Game

16.1

19.8

Recent Trends

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 40.9% to 19.5, 33.1 min average previous 3 games.
Donovan Clingan (C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 35.4% to 17.2, 12.7 min average previous 3 games.
Haywood Highsmith (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.4% to 30.3, 20.2 min average previous 3 games.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/PF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 51.9% to 36.8, 24.2 min average previous 3 games.
Kris Murray (SG/SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 31.5% to 22.6, 17.2 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.
Matisse Thybulle (PF): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 62.1% to 10.9, 28.8 min average previous 3 games.