Heat vs Spurs Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown as the Miami Heat blaze into the AT&T Center to face off against the San Antonio Spurs in a first-round NBA Playoff game that promises more fireworks than the Fourth of July! With both teams hovering around the .500 mark this season, tonight’s matchup, tipping off at 9:30 PM EST, is anyone’s game. The Heat, fresh off a tough loss, are looking to reignite their fire, while the Spurs, riding high from a dominant win, aim to keep their blades sharp and their defense even sharper. As the betting lines teeter on a razor’s edge and the scoreboard anticipates a high-scoring affair, fans are in for an electrifying battle. So, will the Heat scorch their way to victory, or will the Spurs carve out a win? Tune in as the temperature rises and the Spurs look to put the Heat on ice!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: February 01, 2025 09:30PM EST

Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	SAS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-110	-110	224.0	1.0/-1.0
Recent	+100	-120	224.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+210	-10	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

31W-29L

50.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

3W-7L

HOME

23W-38L

50.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	O/U
01/19/25	San Antonio Spurs SAS	30	11	27	39	107	Over
01/19/25	Miami Heat MIA	20	26	46	36	128	Over
02/07/24	San Antonio Spurs SAS	31	20	26	27	104	Under
02/07/24	Miami Heat MIA	32	21	25	38	116	Under
11/12/23	Miami Heat MIA	15	35	32	36	118	Over
11/12/23	San Antonio Spurs SAS	29	24	31	29	113	Over
12/17/22	Miami Heat MIA	25	27	28	31	111	Under
12/17/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	28	27	29	17	101	Under
12/10/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	25	34	27	29	115	Over
12/10/22	Miami Heat MIA	29	28	27	27	111	Over
02/26/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	40	18	39	32	129	Over
02/26/22	Miami Heat MIA	28	33	38	34	133	Over
02/03/22	Miami Heat MIA	21	36	31	24	112	Under
02/03/22	San Antonio Spurs SAS	19	28	19	29	95	Under

Heat Vs Over/Under

Spurs Vs Over/Under

Heat Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/29	@ CLE	106-126L	35	27	12	83
01/27	@ ORL	125-119W	43	34	16	92
01/23	vs MIL	96-125L	50	26	10	92
01/21	@ POR	107-116L	45	26	8	93
01/19	@ SAS	128-107W	49	35	11	95
01/17	@ DEN	113-133L	41	30	8	91
01/15	vs LAL	108-117L	37	25	19	73
01/13	vs LAC	98-109L	49	22	15	85
01/11	vs POR	119-98W	43	31	10	92
01/09	vs UTA	97-92W	49	26	14	91

Spurs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Reb	Ast	Tov	Shots
01/31	@ MIL	144-118W	53	37	4	102
01/29	@ LAC	116-128L	30	27	9	87
01/23	vs IND	140-110W	57	43	19	96
01/19	vs MIA	107-128L	44	28	14	91
01/17	@ MEM	112-140L	40	29	17	84
01/15	@ MEM	115-129L	44	22	11	89
01/13	vs LAL	126-102W	41	30	10	90
01/08	vs MIL	105-121L	46	24	9	95
01/06	vs CHI	110-114L	49	31	17	95
01/04	@ DEN	111-122L	58	28	12	104

Starting Lineups

Miami Heat	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Bam Adebayo PF	43.0	35.3	37.2	100%	37.6
Tyler Herro PG	43.0	43.0	41.3	100%	41.6
Haywood Highsmith SF	18.0	10.5	15.8	90%	17.5
Duncan Robinson SG	23.0	29.5	21.0	73%	22.7
Kel’el Ware C	36.0	35.6	18.5	15%	33.9

San Antonio Spurs	Proj	L5	L15	S%	S/DFS
Harrison Barnes PF	21.0	30.4	22.1	100%	22.5
Stephon Castle SG	28.0	25.6	23.0	70%	26.8
Chris Paul PG	30.0	26.0	30.0	100%	30.3
Devin Vassell SF	31.0	32.5	31.1	67%	34.0
Victor Wembanyama C	63.0	54.8	55.8	100%	56.1

Heat Notable Injuries

Jimmy Butler (SF): Avg: 19.4pts, 5.1reb, 4.8ast, 32.7 minutes. Last game: 01/21/25. Impact: 4.5
Kevin Love (C): Avg: 7.8pts, 5.5reb, 1.8ast, 14.9 minutes. Last game: 01/27/25. Impact: 1.9
Alec Burks (PG): Avg: 9.6pts, 2.3reb, 1.2ast, 17.9 minutes. Last game: 01/21/25. Impact: 1.4
Keshad Johnson (SF/PF): Avg: 1.8pts, 1.8reb, 0.3ast, 6.2 minutes. Last game: 01/23/25. Impact: 0.7
Josh Christopher (PG): Avg: 0.9pts, 0.4reb, 0.6ast, 3.7 minutes. Last game: 01/29/25. Impact: 1.0

Spurs Notable Injuries

Malaki Branham (PG/SG): Avg: 8.1pts, 1.8reb, 1.8ast, 18.2 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 0.5
Charles Bassey (C): Avg: 4.4pts, 4.5reb, 0.8ast, 11.4 minutes. Last game: 01/19/25. Impact: 2.5
Blake Wesley (PG/SG): Avg: 3.9pts, 1.2reb, 2.5ast, 12.7 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 1.3
Sidy Cissoko (SG/SF): Avg: 2.4pts, 1.0reb, 0.4ast, 5.9 minutes. Last game: 01/31/25. Impact: 0.5

Top Player Props

This article, published more than 6 hours prior to game time, focuses exclusively on Over prop bets due to the propensity for NBA teams to make last-minute injury adjustments. For the most current prop bets, including any updates closer to tip-off, please refer to the link provided below the table.

		Stat				Over %				Opposing Defense/Game
Player	Team	Prop	Line	Proj	Diff	L5	L10	L15	L30	Opp	Stat	Rank
Bam Adebayo	MIA	Pts	15.5	19.0	+3.5	40%	40%	47%	47%	SAS	-0.5	#12
Kel’el Ware	MIA	Pts	13.5	16.7	+3.2	80%	50%	40%	40%	SAS	+6.1	#30
Victor Wembanyama	SAS	Reb	12.5	12.8	+0.3	20%	30%	33%	33%	MIA	+1.2	#29
Jeremy Sochan	SAS	Reb	5.5	5.7	+0.2	60%	60%	53%	53%	MIA	+0.1	#16

View All Player Prop Projections

Heat Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#4	#29	#5	#5	-7.8%
PF	#11	#16	#28	#14	-0.1%
PG	#6	#15	#26	#16	-0.7%
SF	#16	#27	#18	#22	4.2%
SG	#19	#3	#15	#14	-1.0%

Spurs Defense vs

Position	Pts	Reb	Ast	Overall	vs NBA
C	#30	#12	#14	#27	7.7%
PF	#12	#21	#14	#16	0.4%
PG	#1	#16	#28	#7	-4.7%
SF	#18	#29	#8	#20	3.6%
SG	#22	#30	#26	#29	7.4%

Team Comparison

Points per Game

111.2

115.2

Rebounds per Game

43.8

46.9

Assists per Game

27.2

30.0

Steals per Game

7.3

7.7

Blocks per Game

4.0

7.1

Shots per Game

86.3

92.4

3-Pointers Made per Game

14.0

13.7

2-Pt Percentage per Game

55.9

54.7

3-Pt Percentage per Game

36.2

34.5

Turnovers per Game

12.9

12.7

Fouls per Game

15.1

16.4

Recent Trends

Bam Adebayo (PF/C): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 38.6% to 37.0, 26.7 min average previous 3 games.
Jimmy Butler (SF): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 50.2% to 29.3, 19.5 min average previous 3 games.
David Duke Jr. (SG): 3 Game Minutes avg dropped 31.7% to 11.5, 16.9 min average previous 3 games.
Josh Richardson (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 30.4% to 21.2, 16.2 min average previous 3 games.
Dru Smith (PG): 3 Game Minutes avg jumped 34.6% to 30.0, 22.3 min average previous 3 games.